FundamentalOverview

Not much has happened sincethe end of the Israel-Iran conflict which caused the geopolitical risk premiumto vanish and weighed on gold as the safe haven flows reversed further. Theprice action remains mostly rangebound as we await the next catalysts to get a moresustained direction.

This week started very wellfor gold as dip-buyers stepped in around the major upward trendline to targetnew all-time highs. This looks more like a technically driven move though as wehaven’t got any meaningful catalyst in the meantime.

In the bigger picture, goldremains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fedeasing and just a hawkish repricing in rate cuts expectations could triggercorrections in the short term.

The economic data will beparticularly important for the gold market as Fed members sound inclined to cutearlier than expected or even more if the inflation data remains soft or thelabour market data deteriorates further. But if the data starts to come out onthe hotter side, then a hawkish repricing should weigh on the market.

GoldTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that gold eventually pulled all the way back to the major upward trendline where the buyers stepped inwith a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into a newall-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the pricebreaking lower to start targeting an even deeper pullback into the 3120 levelnext.

Gold Technical Analysis– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. Thesellers will likely step in around these levels with a defined risk above the3350 swing high to position for a break below the major trendline. The buyers,on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish betsinto the 3438 level next.

Gold Technical Analysis– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we have yet another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentumon this timeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline tokeep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower toincrease the bearish bets and target a break below the major trendline. The redlines define the average daily range for today and since we are near the upper bound, it might not be a good idea for the buyers to enter at these levels.

UpcomingCatalysts

Today, we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the US JobOpenings. Tomorrow, we get the US ADP data. On Thursday, we conclude with theUS NFP, the US Jobless Claims and the US ISM Services PMI before the US holidayon Friday.