FundamentalOverview

The S&P 500 has been ona great run since last Monday after the dovish Fed's Bowman comments and theend of the Israel-Iran conflict. The market continues to be supported bypositive growth and liquidity drivers with financial conditions easingsteadily. The path of least resistance remains to the upside given theexpansionary fiscal policies and impending rate cuts.

In the short-term, the onlyrisk I can see is a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations whichcould provide a pullback. But given that the Fed's reaction function remains toeither wait more or cut, the market should eventually get back to its upwardtrend.

We have key catalysts inthe next two weeks including the ISM PMIs, the US NFP and the US CPI. The datawill influence interest rates expectations and therefore the S&P 500’sprice action.

To keep the trend going, wewould likely need soft inflation figures and benign labour market data. Sincethe market is now leaning more towards three cuts by year-end, hawkish datawould see that being repriced to two cuts.

S&P 500Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that the S&P 500 continues to print new all-time highs everyday as thebullish momentum remains intact. From a risk management perspective, the buyerswill have a better risk to reward setup around the previous all-time high at6,160-ish level to position for the continuation of the uptrend. The sellers,on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for adrop into the 6,000 level next.

S&P 500 TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we have an upward trendline defining the uptrend. If we were toget a pullback all the way into the trendline, we can expect the dip-buyers tolean on it to position for a rally into new all-time highs with a better riskto reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower toincrease the bearish bets into the 5,800 level next.

S&P 500 TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on thistimeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keeppushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break below thetrendline and the 6,160 zone to open the door for a deeper pullback.

UpcomingCatalysts

Tomorrow, we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the US JobOpenings. On Wednesday, we get the US ADP data. On Thursday, we conclude withthe US NFP, the US Jobless Claims and the US ISM Services PMI before the USholiday on Friday.