[Before U.S. Stocks] Futures rose before the employment report, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rate bets warmed up (2025.09.05)

Employment data is key, futures are rising but recession concerns affect risk appetite

U.S. stocks tend to be more organized before the session. Investors focus on the non-farm payrolls report released at 20:30 tonight in Taiwan time to interpret the economic temperature and the probability of interest rate cuts. The market is betting that employment slowdown will be favorable. The Federal Reserve will launch interest rates at this month's meeting, but if the data is too weak, recession signals may dampen risk appetite. The 10-year U.S. bond yield fell and the price of gold returned to a high level, indicating that funds are weighing risk and defense.

The slowdown in employment growth continues. At 20:30 tonight, non-agricultural products reveal the boom.

The market generally expects about 75,000 new non-agricultural jobs in August, a slight improvement from the 73,000 in July, but still moderate; the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3%, higher than the previous value of 4.2%. The previously announced ADP private employment increase of 54,000 people, lower than market expectations and the revised July 106,000 people. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week rose to 237,000, which was also higher than forecast. The labor market cooling signal continued. The unexpected weakness of the official employment report in July has opened up the imagination of interest rate cuts this month. The trend of tonight's data is even more critical to judging the path of interest rates.

Falling yields and commodity differentiation, funds prefer defensive assets

U.S. bond yields fell before the market, reflecting rising expectations for economic cooling and interest rate cuts. Gold futures rose slightly above US$3600 per ounce, and their safe-haven properties were favored; international oil prices fell, indicating an increased wait-and-see view of the demand outlook. There is a lot of sentiment on crypto assets, with Bitcoin trading at US$112,000, and both risky assets and defensive assets are buying simultaneously, highlighting the market's decentralized allocation before tonight's data.

Index futures rose moderately, and U.S. stocks hit another high yesterday, triggering risk sentiment

S & P 500 futures rose about 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 0.5%, and Dow Jones futures were near flat. Cash stocks led gains yesterday, with the S & P 500 closing at its 21st all-time high this year, the Nasdaq Composite Index up 1% and the Dow Jones up 0.8%. After hitting new highs in a row, the market's sensitivity to valuations and interest rates has increased, and pre-market futures reflect more caution about tonight's data.

International stock markets are overcrowded, and Asia and Europe continue to rebound

Asian stock markets generally rose this morning, with the Taiwan Stock Weighted Index leading the gains, rising by more than 1%. Buying momentum in the technology and AI supply chain continued. In terms of European stocks, the European Stoxx 600 index closed up 0.6% in the previous trading day, driven by media and telecommunications stocks. The positive tone of international stock markets provides pre-market support for U.S. stocks, but the overall trend is still based on U.S. employment data.

Trade policy adds uncertainty, concerns about its impact on automotive and chip supply chains

U.S. policy variables are heating up. U.S. President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 15% benchmark tariff on most Japanese goods, including automobiles. The automobile industry chain focuses on cost transmission and demand impact. Trump also reiterated that he would impose "considerable" tariffs on semiconductor imports that do not have factories in the United States, but expressed his intention to exempt companies such as Apple(AAPL) that expand investment in the United States. The timetable and details of relevant tariffs still need to be clarified, and the potential impact on automobile, electronics and retail prices has become the focus of market observation.

Tesla launches new salary plan, Musk's shareholding and voting rights are expected to increase

Tesla(TSLA) proposed a new salary plan in regulatory documents, which intends to increase CEO Musk's shareholding and voting rights when achieving goals such as production and adjusted EBITDA through performance rewards in 12 options levels., up to approximately 12% of the shareholding. The company said retaining Musk and motivating him are crucial to achieving long-term goals, and a shareholder vote is scheduled for November 6. Shares rose about 2% before the market as investors assessed the balance between corporate governance, control and long-term growth.

Broadcom benefited from AI demand, and both revenue and outlook were better than expected

Broadcom(Broadcom, AVGO) delivered outstanding results last quarter, with revenue increasing 22% year-on-year to US$15.95 billion, a record high, and adjusted earnings per share of US$1.69 were better than expectations. Chief Executive Chen Fuyang said that AI semiconductor revenue this quarter is expected to reach US$6.2 billion, growing for the 11th consecutive quarter. The company also estimates revenue for the fourth quarter of the fiscal year to be approximately US$17.4 billion, slightly higher than the market consensus. It also announced that it had received a large order for customized chips from a new customer of more than US$10 billion, indicating that investment momentum in AI infrastructure continues. The stock price rose by about 10% before the market, boosting AI supply chain sentiment.

Lulu Lemon revises full-year guidance, tariff pressure drags down retail sentiment

Lululemon Athletica(LULU) fell about 19% in pre-market trading as its annual financial forecast fell short of expectations. The company's revenue in the last quarter increased by 7% year-on-year to US$2.5 billion, slightly lower than market estimates. Adjusted earnings per share of US$3.10 were better than expectations, but same-store sales increased only 1%, below consensus. The company estimates full-year revenue of US$10.85 billion to US$11 billion, and its earnings outlook is also significantly lower than the market. Chief Financial Officer Meghan Frank pointed out that industry challenges and the impact of tariffs, and full-year profits will be under pressure by approximately US$240 million. Consumer retail and apparel stocks were under pressure before the market.

Encryption is as strong as precious metals, and risk-balanced thinking dominates capital allocation.

At the same time as Bitcoin continues to rise, gold prices have returned to the high end, indicating that some funds are betting on technology and AI themes on the one hand, and increasing their exposure to insurance against tail risks of the recession on the other. The fall in oil prices reflects uncertainty in demand and policies, and energy stocks are relatively under pressure before the opening bell. The speed at which funds rotate among stocks may intensify with tonight's employment data.

Focus on pre-market observation, and data and policy clues dominate the opening rhythm

The non-farm payrolls report at 20:30 tonight will adjust interest rate expectations and yield rate trends. The market will pay special attention to whether new jobs will continue to be sluggish and the implications of changes in the unemployment rate on the inflation outlook. From the policy perspective, the extended effects of US-Japan tariffs and potential chip tariffs on the automotive and semiconductor supply chains need to be continuously tracked. At the individual stock level, Tesla's governance issues, Broadcom's AI orders and Lululemon's tariff pressure may affect the flow of funds in technology, AI supply chains and optional consumer stocks, interacting with the pulse of market interest rates, becoming the main variable after today's opening.