[After-hours Analysis of U.S. Stocks] U.S. stocks fluctuated and rose, with the S & P standing above 6,300! (2025.07.22)
The market focused on US-European trade negotiations and the impact of the earnings season, with the S & P 500 breaking through 6,300 points for the first time. Communications and technology stocks led the gains, while energy groups were sluggish due to natural gas prices.
Market analysis昨日美股在企业财报与国际贸易消息的牵动下震荡整理。尽管美国与欧盟贸易谈判进展有限,白宫已预告可能针对墨西哥、欧盟商品祭出高达30%的关税,且已通知包括加拿大、日本、巴西等国,未来税率可能介于20%至50%。不过,美国商务部长卢特尼克强调,美欧仍有望达成协议,即便欧盟内部正讨论反制措施,部分投资人认为川普政府拟议的新一轮关税影响可望低于预期,驱动美股涨多跌少,标普首度收盘站上6,300关卡,惟整体涨幅因获利了结卖压而压抑。类股表现方面,其中通讯服务领涨。Verizon(VZ)财报优于预期并上调全年获利展望,股价上涨4%,大型股Alphabet(GOOGL)上涨2.7%、Meta(META)上涨1.2%也表现不俗,Netflix(NFLX)受惠于外资调升目标价,股价走升2.0%。非必需消费品中,Nike(NKE)涨2.1%、亚马逊(AMZN)及家得宝(HD)亦分别上涨1.4%、1.3%,带动零售类股表现。反观能源类股因天然气价格下挫表现最疲弱。
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Verizon, benefiting from tax reform and demand for high-end solutions, raises its full-year financial forecast and beats market expectations
Verizon (V)'s second-quarter earnings report was impressive, benefiting from demand for high-end tariff plans and capital expenditure incentives brought by U.S. tax reforms, which boosted its wireless service revenue growth and improved its free cash flow forecast. Despite the loss of 9,000 monthly customers, the company's overall revenue and earnings per share were better than market expectations, and the stock price rose 3.5%. In addition, Verizon is actively expanding its fiber optic assets to attack the data market and completing a merger deal with Frontier.
Wireless services revenue growth
第二季无线服务营收成长2.2%,带动总营收达345亿美元,高于市场预期的337.4亿美元,反映消费者对高价值资费方案的强劲需求。Tax reform significantly improves cash flow
美国税改允许企业立即抵扣新设备成本,预计将为Verizon今年贡献15亿至20亿美元自由现金流,公司因此上调全年预估至195亿至205亿美元。Profit outlook revised up
在成本控管与税务优惠助力下,Verizon将2025年调整后盈余成长预期从0%–3%上修至1%–3%,显示营运动能转强。Net monthly subscriber loss
第二季意外流失9,000名月租用户,市场原预期净增13,000名,主要因1月价格上调导致用户流失。Strengthen optical fiber and broadband layout
Verizon斥资200亿美元并购Frontier并于5月获批,第二季宽频净增用户29.3万,反映对数据需求持续扩张的有效布局。
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U.S. Treasury Secretary signals that high tariffs on August 1 are a bargaining chip, not a deadline
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the high tariff measures President Trump is scheduled to launch on August 1 are actually more a pressure negotiation method than an absolute deadline. He emphasized that the United States values the quality of trade agreements more than the completion schedule, implying that some countries may still seek to defer taxation if they continue to engage in "constructive" negotiations. The remarks reinforced market expectations that Trump's tariff policy will continue to serve as a tool for foreign negotiations.
High tariffs are a tool for pressure
Bessent指出,高达40%的关税设计目的在于对贸易伙伴施加压力,迫使对方提供更具利于美国的协议条件,而非仅仅作为贸易惩罚。August 1 or non-deadline
虽然商务部长Lutnick称8月1日为「硬性期限」,Bessent却表示可持续谈判,暗示未来仍可能视情况调整征税时程。Trade negotiations focus on quality
财政部强调,「协议的品质比时间更重要」,表示美方更关注实质利益,而非赶在特定日期前完成交易。The market waits and sees the policy direction
投资人与进口商陷入观望,一方面担心关税落地冲击经济,一方面又押注川普政府可能再次延期。Policy signals continue to be repeated
自4月初首次宣布高关税以来,美方多次调整执行时程,使外界对8月1日是否为真正生效日期仍存疑。
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Microsoft SharePoint zero-day vulnerability has been hacked on a massive scale, putting governments and businesses around the world at high risk
Microsoft (MSFT) has warned that its own SharePoint server has been attacked. The zero-day vulnerability has been used in cyber espionage operations against about 100 organizations, including government agencies, banks, medical and industrial companies in the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom. Hackers can gain system privileges without authentication and may continue to be penetrated even after the patch is installed. Research pointed out that the attack showed signs of hackers with China background and is currently one of the most serious security threats in the world.
Vulnerability affects servers around the world
该漏洞锁定自架 SharePoint Server,而非云端版 Microsoft 365。研究机构估计,全球逾9,000台伺服器可能已被骇入,潜在受害对象涵盖政府、医疗、审计与金融产业。Attackers can gain full access
根据美国资安局 CISA,该漏洞让骇客得以执行任意程式、存取或窃取 SharePoint 中所有内容,并能横向移动至其他 Microsoft 服务如 Outlook 与 Teams。Hackers have deployed backdoors and key theft
Palo Alto Networks 指出,攻击者除窃取敏感资料外,也植入持久性后门并窃取加密金钥,对企业营运构成持续性威胁。Suspected to be related to China hackers
Google 资安团队认为部分攻击行为与中国相关骇客组织有关。中国驻美大使馆尚未对此做出回应,过去北京一贯否认骇客行动。Microsoft and governments urgently respond
微软已针对两个版本发布修补程式,但安全专家警告仅安装补丁不足,企业应假设系统已被入侵,进行全面安全审计与凭证更换。
Tesla reaches a settlement with Louisiana to end direct sales ban litigation dispute
Tesla (TSLA) formally reached a settlement with the state of Louisiana and several auto dealers and industry associations on July 21, ending its 2022 lawsuit against the state's ban on selling cars directly to consumers since 2017. This case challenges the traditional distribution system's suppression of Tesla's direct sales model and reflects the structural contradictions in car sales controls in some U.S. states.
Tesla challenges direct sales ban
特斯拉起初控告州汽车委员会及其旗下经销商,指控他们滥用职权阻挠直营销售、租赁及售后服务,侵犯特斯拉的商业模式与宪法权益。The case has been reversed on appeal
2024年8月联邦上诉法院恢复特斯拉的正当法律程序诉求,推翻先前对其反垄断主张的驳回,认为对特斯拉可能存有制度性偏见。Supreme Court refuses to hear appeal
2025年6月,美国最高法院拒绝18位汽车委员会成员的上诉,让下级法院对特斯拉有利的裁定得以维持。The two sides reach a "final settlement"
根据法庭文件,特斯拉与被告双方已「完全且最终」解决诉讼,尽管州方坚称其执法行为未违反刑法。May set a precedent for other states
此和解案可能对其他限制直销的州带来示范效应,进一步推动美国汽车市场朝向直营与电动车友善的制度改革。
Google and OpenAI models win the first gold medal in mathematics Olympia, demonstrating breakthroughs in reasoning capabilities
Google (GOOGL) and OpenAI announced that their universal AI model has reached the gold medal threshold in the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) for the first time, becoming the first AI system to solve more than 5 questions, demonstrating a major breakthrough in natural language reasoning capabilities. Researchers believe that AI will help mathematicians overcome unresolved research problems within a year, marking that AI can be applied to high-level logic and scientific research.
Winning the gold medal for the first time in natural language problem solving
与过去依赖形式语言与繁复计算不同,Google 的 Gemini Deep Think 与 OpenAI 的模型皆使用自然语言完成推理并在官方时限4.5小时内作答,展现AI推理的新高度。Inference models are expected to be applied to scientific research
Google DeepMind 访问学者、布朗大学数学教授Jung表示,AI推理能力已接近能与数学家合作破解前沿问题,亦可延伸应用至物理等其他基础科学领域。OpenAI expands real-time computing capabilities
OpenAI此次突破来自实验性大规模「测试时运算」,透过延长思考时间与平行计算,让模型同时进行多条推理路径,提升解题效率,但代价「非常昂贵」。AI performance received official IMO certification
比赛主办单位首次与AI实验室合作,并由IMO裁判验证结果,确保与真人选手比赛公平性,并要求Google等机构于7月28日正式公布成果。AI progress is of far-reaching significance to education and science
此次突破为教育、研究与未来人机协作开启新局,象征AI正快速迈向具备类人智慧的核心门槛。
Nvidia's return to the China market was acquiesced by the United States, highlighting the strategic game and two-way dependence on China-US AI chips
Nvidia (NVDA) has returned to the China market and resumed sales of H20 chips, marking the adjustment of the United States 'strategic stance in the AI geopolitical competition. On the one hand, chip restrictions on China affect the development of AI in China, and on the other hand, they also damage the revenue and R & D capabilities of U.S. companies. The release of H20 this time symbolizes that the "symbiotic dependence" between the United States and China in the AI supply chain is still difficult to separate, and highlights the United States 'strategic considerations to maintain global AI influence through technology-led.
US release of H20 chips has strategic implications
尽管H20为降规版本,美方仍曾封锁出口,担忧用于军事与AI应用。此次开绿灯反映美方希望中国持续依赖美国技术,以掌控AI技术主导权。Nvidia's soft and hard integration advantages stabilize the market
除GPU硬体强势外,Nvidia凭借CUDA软体平台建立AI生态系,使开发者深度绑定,形成难以替代的竞争优势。The development of AI chips in China may slow down
尽管中国积极推动华为等本土晶片方案,Nvidia产品回归恐削弱对国产替代的资金与动力,延后自研进度。China's long-term goal remains technological autonomy
专家认为中国最终仍须转向本土AI技术栈,特别在AI推论(inferencing)阶段,成本与效率优势可能带来突围机会。The reality of technological symbiosis in Sino-US relations
专家指出,Nvidia与中国为「共生关系」,美方限制若过度,恐损及自身创新与竞争力,因此保持部分市场开放符合双方利益。
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