The USD is mixed but little changed vs the major currencies. Looking at the changes from the close yesterday, the EUR, JPY GBP, CHF, CAD, AUD are all trading within 0.12% vs the close. The NZDUSD is down -0.30% (higher USD).and the biggest change of the major currencies.

The quiet comes before the vote on the so-called big, beautiful budget blll and the US employment data in the US. The jobs data is a day early due to the US Independence Day holiday tomorrow. The markets will close early today with the stock markets closing at 1 PM in the bond market closing at 2 PM ET.

A look at the forecast and the prior of the major components for that report shows:

🇺🇸 US Employment Data (June)

• Non-Farm Payrolls: Forecast 110k | Prior 139k

• Private Payrolls: Forecast 105k | Prior 140k

• Manufacturing Payrolls: Forecast -5k | Prior 4k

• Government Payrolls: Forecast — | Prior -1k

• Unemployment Rate: Forecast 4.3% | Prior 4.2%

• Average Earnings MM: Forecast 0.3% | Prior 0.4%

• Average Earnings YY: Forecast 3.9% | Prior 3.9%

• Average Workweek Hours: Forecast 34.3 | Prior 34.3

• Labor Force Participation: Forecast — | Prior 62.4%

• U6 Underemployment: Forecast — | Prior 7.8%

The private ADP employment change came in much weaker than expectations at -33K. The ISM employment component was also weaker, but the JOLTs job openings rose surprisingly, Challenger job layoffs were lower this month. The initial jobless claims were higher but not running away.

Other economic data due at 8:30 AM will include:

• International Trade Balance ($, May): Forecast -71.0B | Prior -61.6B

• Goods Trade Balance (R, May): Forecast — | Prior -96.59B

• Initial Jobless Claims (28 Jun): Forecast 240k | Prior 236k

• Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg (28 Jun): Forecast — | Prior 245.00k

• Continued Jobless Claims (21 Jun): Forecast 1.956M | Prior 1.974M

• 🇨🇦 Canada Trade Balance (C$, May): Forecast -5.90B | Prior -7.14B

At 10 AM, ISM services and Factory orders will also be released before traders start to think about the beach or pools for the weekend.

In other news:

• U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent said that he is meeting with EU officials today and warns countries not to drag Trade talks as tariffs can go back to April 2 levels.

US stock futures are little changed (but marginally higher) after the S&P and NASDAQ index closed at record levels yesterday. Futures are implying:

• Dow industrial average +36.5 points
• S&P index + 1.8 points
• NASDAQ index +6.85 points

Looking at the US debt market, yields are lower:

• 2-year yield 3.760%, -2.9 basis points
• 5- year yield 3.843%, -2.6 basis points
• 10-year yield 4.259%, -3.4 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.790%, -3.2 basis points

In other markets, the snapshot shows:

• Crude oil $-0.13 or -0.19% at $67.32. Yesterday the price moved back above the 50% midpoint of the move up from the April low at $66.33. The price is also back above the falling 200 hour moving average at $67.34.
• Gold is down $11.22 or -0.33% at $3346.18.
• Silver is up $0.34 or 0.94% at $36.90
• Bitcoin is up $818 at $109,703. The high price reached $110,292. The all-time high prices at $112,000