Gold Technical Analysis – All eyes on the US NFP report
. Fundamental Overview . Gold has been on a steady rise since bouncing on a major trendline and the market increasing the easing bets for the Fed.
FundamentalOverview
Gold has been on a steadyrise since bouncing on a major trendline and the market increasing the easingbets for the Fed. The momentum waned a bit though as market participants awaitthe NFP release before the US holiday tomorrow.
In the bigger picture, goldremains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fedeasing and just a hawkish repricing in rate cuts expectations could triggercorrections in the short term.
The economic data will beparticularly important for the market as Fed members sound inclined to cutearlier than expected or even more if the inflation data remains soft or thelabour market data deteriorates further. But if the data starts to come out onthe hotter side, then a hawkish repricing should weigh on the market.
GoldTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we cansee that gold continues to edge higher after the strong bounce on the major upwardtrendline where the buyers stepped in toposition for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers might want to waitfor the price to come into the 3438 resistance or break below the majortrendline before positioning for new lows with better setups.
Gold Technical Analysis– 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that the price broke above the minor downward trendline that was definingthe bearish momentum. The buyers piled in on the break, but the momentum wanedas traders await the NFP release.
From a risk managementperspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the mostrecent swing low at 3327 to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers,on the other hand, will look for a break lower to start targeting the majorupward trendline and eventually a breakout.
Gold Technical Analysis– 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we have a bit of a consolidation now trading into the NFP report. Thevolatility is generally high and spikes are very common, so the technicallevels might not be respected at all.
Nonetheless, with soft datawe can expect the buyers to pile in more aggressively as traders increase therate cuts bets, while a hot report could take us back to the major trendline asthe market pares back the easing expectations. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UpcomingCatalysts
Today, we conclude with the US NFP, the US Jobless Claimsand the US ISM Services PMI before the US holiday tomorrow.
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