• FOMC minutes show most officials expect a rate cut in 2025, with some open to easing as early as the July 30 meeting.
• Tariff-driven inflation risks remain, but are seen as temporary by most participants; labor market shows early signs of softening.
• Crypto markets stay neutral, with Bitcoin and Ethereum steady as traders await key CPI data and Fed's next move.

The Federal Reserve’s latest minutes, released Wednesday, show that most policymakers expect interest rate cuts to begin this year, possibly as soon as July 30.

The minutes from the June 17–18 meeting confirmed the central bank kept its benchmark rate at 4.25% to 4.50%. 

Fed Aligned On At Least One Rate Cut in 2025

Policymakers agreed inflation had eased but remained “somewhat elevated.” Also, uncertainty around the outlook had diminished, though not disappeared.

Crucially, most participants said a rate cut would “likely be appropriate” in 2025. A few indicated they would consider cutting rates as early as the next meeting, if data trends continue.

However, the minutes also highlighted divisions. Some Fed officials argued against any cuts this year, citing stubborn inflation and strong labor market resilience. 

They warned that short-term inflation expectations remain elevated, especially among households and businesses.

The Fed flagged recent tariff increases as a new source of inflation risk. While the majority believes these effects will be temporary or modest, several members expressed concern about possible second-order impacts on prices and expectations.

For the crypto market, the dovish tilt reinforces investor optimism. Bitcoin and Ethereum remained steady near $109,000 and $2,700 respectively, as traders priced in the growing chance of monetary easing. 

Lower interest rates typically benefit risk assets by improving liquidity and reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding tokens.

Still, market participants await key upcoming data—especially June’s CPI report due July 11—which could shape the Fed’s next move. Any sign of inflation stalling could delay cuts and dampen crypto momentum.

Overall, the Fed signaled that the door is open to easing, but not yet unlocked.

Crypto markets will closely watch the July 30 meeting for confirmation, as monetary policy continues to be a key driver of digital asset performance in 2025.