According to online reports, QCP Capital issued an article on the official channel saying that on macro events, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged as the market generally expected. However, the Policy Committee remains hawkish, emphasizing that short-term inflation expectations remain high and listing tariffs as a key upside risk. Officials reiterated their preference for a wait-and-see approach until the path of inflation becomes clearer. Markets 'sensitivity to geopolitical headlines continues to decline, including ongoing Israel-Iran tensions. The countdown to the trade war has begun. As the July 9 deadline for the EU tariff suspension approaches, the United States has reached only one agreement among nearly 195 potential trading partners. Negotiations have reached a deadlock, leaks of information have become a recurring theme, and the market's response to progressive tariff news has become increasingly passive. The following time points are still crucial: July 14: The EU plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the United States August 12: The 90-day tariff truce period between China and the United States ends August 31: The long-term tariff exemption for China's imports expires These points may trigger periodic downward fluctuations in risky assets. However, the QCP benchmark scenario is still optimistic: given the intersection of interests of both sides, Sino-US trade negotiations are more likely to reach a stable conclusion, which will provide support for the continued rise of risk assets. The current market risk reversal indicator remains negative (put options are premium to call options), reflecting the market's cautious layout and expectations for a short-term correction.