[Before the market] Risk appetite cools, futures index drops slightly, focusing on the Federal Reserve Exchange and retail earnings (2025.08.18)

Risk appetite cools, and the three major futures indices fall slightly

U.S. stock futures retreated after closing in red for two consecutive weeks last week. Dow Jones futures fell about 0.1%. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell slightly simultaneously, indicating that risk appetite became more conservative before the opening bell. Last week, Dow Jones was only 68 points away from its all-time high. Short-term momentum was still there, but it entered a wait-and-see period for policy and earnings reports. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell, oil and gold futures rose, Bitcoin fell more than 2%, and risk asset sentiment diverged.

Policy signals are imminent, and this week's focus is on Bauer's talks and meeting minutes

The market is paying attention to the minutes of the August meeting of the Federal Reserve Board and the news of the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole. In accordance with usual practice, the minutes of the meeting were released in the early hours of Thursday, Taiwan time. Investors focused on the statement of inflation stickiness and the assessment of real interest rates; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is expected to deliver a speech in the early hours of Saturday time. The outside world will pay attention to clues about the subsequent interest rate path and balance sheet operations. The policy tone will influence the short-term trend of interest-rate sensitive stocks.

Retail financial reports are on the scene one after another, and consumption momentum and inventory management are under review

U.S. stocks have entered a period of intensive disclosure by retailers. The market focuses on same-store sales, gross margin and inventory turnover to assess the impact of summer promotions on gross profit pressure and second-half guidance. If the resilience of the consumer side is better than expected, it will help alleviate concerns about a slowdown in the economy; on the contrary, if inventory removal slows down or discounts increase, the evaluation of growth stocks may be affected.

Debt, oil, gold, gold,

The decline in U.S. bond yields coincided with the rise in gold prices, reflecting the growing need for defense against policy signals and geopolitics. Higher oil prices futures support energy stocks against declines, but may also put cost pressure on the transportation and gas-guzzling industries. Bitcoin fell more than 2% before the market, risk appetite for crypto assets cooled, and funds were reallocated among traditional defensive assets.

Eurasian stock markets are stable, with external sentiment providing partial support

Asian stock markets mostly rose in early trading, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index hitting a high since October 2024. European stocks closed near flat last Friday. The overall stability of external risk assets helped alleviate the emotional impact of the weakening of the U.S. stock index, but the trend of U.S. stocks that day was still dominated by endogenous policies and financial information.

Weight loss drugs expand indications, heavyweight pharmaceutical companies move higher in front of the market

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Wegovy to treat steatohepatitis related to non-cirrhosis metabolic dysfunction, driving Novo Nordisk's (NVO) U.S. stock price up about 4% before the market. The company pointed out that MASH has a high prevalence among overweight and obese people, and the market interprets new indications to expand the number of potential drugs. The stock fell sharply last month due to a downward revision of its outlook and the announcement of a new CEO, and today it rebounded to become the focus of the health care community.

Rumors of private equity acquisitions push stock price higher, Dayforce rises sharply

Human resources software company Dayforce(DAY) surged more than 25% in pre-market trading after Bloomberg reported that private equity firm Thoma Bravo is negotiating a takeover and may finalize a privatization agreement within weeks. The stock has fallen by about 27% since the beginning of the year. Trading rumors have stimulated value revaluation and mergers and acquisitions of software and cloud stocks. Relevant peer evaluations may be affected by price comparison effects.

Crypto operators launch capital markets plan, Gemini applies for U.S. stock listing

Gemini Space Station, a crypto trading platform founded by the Winklevoss brothers, has submitted for an initial public offering and is scheduled to be listed on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the code name GEMI. The platform provides trading in about 150 cryptocurrencies and issues stable coins Gemini dollar. Together with the recent peer IPO action, it shows that the capital market window for the crypto industry has once again opened. However, due to the decline in Bitcoin and regulatory uncertainty, the popularity of the subject matter and the digestion of fundamentals still need to be observed.

Meme trading heats up, Opendoor continues to be chased by funds

Meme stocks continued to boom, with Opendoor Technologies(Opendoor, OPEN) rising about 3% in pre-market trading, extending its rally last Friday after news that its CEO and chairman would step down. Market sentiment and community capital flows have intensified their impact on stock prices, and increased short-term volatility may also spread to real estate technology themes.

Technology valuation topics continue to rage, and OpenAI secondary market transactions attract attention

Media reported that OpenAI is negotiating to sell employee shares to an external market with a potential valuation of approximately US$500 billion. Investors include SoftBank, Dragoneer and Thrive. Although it is not an initial public offering, it is expected to become the topic of the AI and cloud ecosystem chain this week. The market is concerned about the commercialization of generative AI and the continuity of computing capital expenditures, and the sentiment in the semiconductor and server supply chain may be driven.

Geopolitical noise remains unabated, and Ukrainian-Russian issues become risk-averse variables

Trump and Putin met in Alaska last week and failed to reach a ceasefire agreement. The White House subsequently raised the possibility of the United States and Europe providing NATO Article 5 security guarantees to Ukraine. Although no major agreement has been released, political statements have triggered market assumptions about subsequent sanctions, energy supply and European demand. Risk-haven demand has been compounded by policy wait-and-see, which has suppressed risky assets.

Focus on opening observation, futures index and quantity energy will verify sentiment

In the wait-and-see environment before policies and financial reports, futures index discounts and spot volume changes are the focus of observation. If bond yields continue to fall and oil and gold are strong, defense and energy stocks will be relatively dominant; if retail financial reports send a positive signal on consumer resilience, market risk appetite is expected to improve. In terms of pre-market individual stocks, we focus on the spillover impact of the volume and price performance of Novo Nordisk, Dayforce, Opendoor and crypto concept stocks on stocks.