FundamentalOverview

Gold recently got a boostfrom safe haven flows triggered by the Israel and Iran attacks. The market reactedimmediately to the first Israel attack assigning a geopolitical risk premium.

This is now fading in theback though because from a market perspective, as long as the supply of oil isnot impaired, the war can go on without any meaningful macro impact.

Moreover, there aretentative signs that Iran wants to de-escalate asthe Iranian Foreign Minister said that they would prepare the ground for areturn to diplomacy and negotiations if the Israeli aggression stopped.

This is leading to apullback in safe haven flows. More positive signs of de-escalation will likelyweigh on gold as the recent rally would probably get erased. In the biggerpicture though, gold remains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continueto fall amid Fed easing and just a repricing in rate cuts expectations could triggercorrections in the short term.

GoldTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that gold eventually reached the key 3438 level amid the Middle Easttensions. That’s where the sellers stepped in with a defined risk above thelevel to position for a drop back into the major upward trendline.The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher toincrease the bullish bets into a new all-time high.

Gold Technical Analysis– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that with the new high, we now have another minor upward trendline definingthe bullish momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expectthe buyers to lean on it to position for further upside. The sellers, on theother hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into thenext trendline.

Gold Technical Analysis– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we have yet another minor trendline defining the bullish momentum onthis timeframe. That’s where we can expect the buyers to step in with a definedrisk below the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers willlook for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The redlines define the average daily range for today.

UpcomingCatalysts

Tomorrow, we get the US Retail Sales report, while onWednesday, we have the US Jobless Claims and the FOMC Policy Decision.

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