The USDCAD has moved back above a previously broken trend line on the hourly chart, offering buyers a minor tactical win. However, to build a more convincing bullish bias, the pair still needs to get above and stay above the 100-hour moving average, currently near 1.3611.

Since peaking on May 13, the pair has been in a steady downtrend. There have been several corrective attempts to push above the 100-hour moving average during the decline, but each time the price approached the higher 200-hour moving average, momentum quickly faded, and the pair resumed its move lower. The most recent example was on Tuesday, when a brief move above the 200-hour MA failed to attract sustained buying interest.

For now, buyers are trying to stabilize the pair, but the burden remains on them to prove they can hold above key technical levels to shift the short-term narrative. The first target above is a 100 hour moving average and then the 200 hour moving average – coupled with a downward trend line near 1.36457 becomes another hurdle.

Longer term, the low reached yesterday, took the pair to the lowest level going back to early October. The September 2024 low for the pair reached 1.34233. That was near the low going back to March 2024 near the same level. If momentum to the downside should accelerate, those lows would be targeted.