This year, Wall Street's top stock market prognosticators have faced challenges in accurately foreseeing the impact of President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies on the stock market. Despite the ongoing market upheaval and uncertainty due to these policies, most equities strategists still anticipate that the S&P 500 Index will rally by the end of 2025.

The S&P 500 had a strong performance last week, yet it remains down approximately 10% for the year. This decline is due to Trump imposing substantial tariffs on goods from major trade partners like China, Canada, Mexico, the EU, and others. The benchmark index closed trading on Tuesday having lost 15% last week in 2025, but reversed course on Thursday following Trump's announcement of a 90 - day delay on many tariffs.

This year's 15% drop in the S&P 500 is historically notable. Since 1957, the index has fallen by at least this amount by early April on 16 occasions, and it has only managed to end December in positive territory three times (in 2020, 2009, and 1982), each time with the Federal Reserve stepping in to support the US economy.

The trade turmoil has led Wall Street analysts to revise their S&P 500 year - end predictions. For instance, Bank of America's Savita Subramanian cut her target from 6,666 to 5,600. Analysts from oppenheimer & Co., evercore ISI, goldman sachs Group Inc., Societe Generale sa, and RBC Capital Markets also trimmed their forecasts. Ned Davis Research's Ed Clissold lowered his target to 5,550 from 6,600, factoring in a 50% chance of recession.

However, the majority of analysts still expect equities to rise. Only BCA Research's Peter Berezin, with a target of 4,450, and JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Dubravko Lakos - Bujas, at 5,200, predict the index will end 2025 below its Friday close of 5,364.36.

Predictions vary widely. The gap between Berezin's target and Wells Fargo's Chris Harvey's target of 7,007 is over 2,500 points, or 57%, the widest on record for this time of year since 2000. The average prediction of 6,067.21 implies a roughly 13% increase from Friday's close.

The biggest hurdle for strategists forecasting stock movements is the ever - changing nature of Trump's trade strategy. For example, Wall Street urged him to delay broad tariffs, but he and his administration initially insisted on proceeding. His sudden announcement of a pause just 13 hours after the tariffs took effect stunned the market.

In conclusion, the landscape of S&P 500 end - of - year predictions in 2025 is a complex and volatile one, mired in the uncertainty of Trump's trade policies. Analysts, despite their best efforts, find themselves grappling with a constantly shifting environment. The wide divergence in forecasts not only highlights the difficulty in accurately gauging the market's direction but also underscores the significant impact that trade policy can have on financial markets. As the year unfolds, the S&P 500's performance will continue to be closely watched, with the outcome likely to hinge on the ebb and flow of trade negotiations and policy decisions. Whether the majority's optimistic view of a rally will prove correct remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the trade chaos has made accurate stock market forecasting an arduous task for even the most seasoned Wall Street strategists.