On August 5, Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist at HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the July FOMC meeting maintained interest rates at 5.25%-5.50%, and did not provide any guidance on future interest rate cuts, triggering market concerns about "maintaining high interest rates for longer." The yield on the 10-year U.S. bond immediately rose to 4.24%, the U.S. dollar index returned to above 100, gold fell below US$3,270, Bitcoin pulled back to the US$116,000 range in the short-term, and the activity on the chain fell simultaneously. However, the July non-farm payrolls report released three days later unexpectedly "fell off a cliff": only 73,000 new jobs were created, less than the expected 180,000, and the employment data from May to June was revised down by about 90%. The reality of a "systemic overvaluation" of the labor market prompted the market to quickly reassess the Fed's policy path. The probability of a CME FedWatch interest rate cut soared from 38% to 82%, and the bet on two interest rate cuts during the year rose to 64%. The 10-year yield then fell below 4.10%, gold rebounded by $40 in the day, and Bitcoin once again dropped to around $112,000 after a brief rebound. Although the sharp decline in short-term employment data has triggered sharp market fluctuations, judging from structural data such as household debt ratios, credit card default rates and commercial loans, the United States is still in a "slowdown" rather than a systemic recession. Such a combination of "employment decline + inflation easing" may indicate that monetary policy is about to shift from tightening to loosening, and risky assets are in a window period where high volatility and liquidity games coexist. Note: The content of this article is not investment opinion, nor does it constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation for any investment product.