The USDJPY moved lower in early U.S. trading, finding support near the bottom of a swing area between 143.57 and 143.84, while also holding just above the rising 200-hour moving average, currently at 143.44. The price has since been oscillating around the 100-hour moving average at 143.93, but remains below the 38.2% retracement of the March high to April low move at 144.208—a level it briefly traded above during the Asian and early European sessions.

This area represents a tight technical cluster, with the 200-hour MA offering support to the downside and the 38.2% retracement acting as resistance to the upside.

Last week, the pair surged on Thursday and Friday, breaking through several key targets—including the 100- and 200-hour MAs, the 38.2%, and even the 50% retracement—but ultimately stalled at the falling 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, which capped the rally and triggered a move lower.

Now, with price back below the 38.2% retracement and indecisive around the 100-hour MA, bearish risks are building. Traders will be watching for a firm move below the 200-hour MA at 143.44 to increase downside potential, while a break back above 144.208 would be needed to restore upside momentum.