U.S. non-agricultural data was released tonight, and the results have a greater impact on the Federal Reserve's September interest decision."
Internet reports that the July employment report, which the United States will release at 8:30 pm Beijing time on Friday, is expected to show 110,000 new jobs, a significant drop from 147,000 in June; the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%; the average hourly monthly rate is expected to rise by 0.3%, up from 0.2% in June. If the forecast is accurate, this will strengthen the view that the job market is slowing, although a response from the Fed may not necessarily be required. At the interest-rate meeting earlier this week, Powell gave no guidance on the September interest rate decision, pointing out that there is a lot of data to be released before then, and Friday's July non-agricultural report will be a piece of the jigsaw puzzle that will help influence the Fed's September interest rate cut expectations. Analysts pointed out that if the non-agricultural employment data is below 100,000 and the unemployment rate rises, it may imply a weakening of the job market, suppress the Federal Reserve's renewed hawkish expectations, and put pressure on the US dollar. This situation will be conducive to the rebound of gold prices. However, if non-farm payrolls data unexpectedly exceeds 150,000, the dollar's strength may continue, as strong U.S. jobs data may rule out the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates twice this year. (Jin Shi)
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