On May 8, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up. The Nasdaq index rose more than 1%, and the Dow Jones index and the S & P 500 index rose 0.62% and 0.58% respectively.Market sentiment was ignited at the same time by two forces: First, U.S. President Trump once again called on people to "buy stocks now" in social media and public speeches, and second, the United States and Britain announced a framework trade agreement, partially Withdraw tariffs in specific areas and expand market access.

Short-term stimulus and long-term concerns of the US-UK trade agreement

The preliminary framework of the U.S. -UK trade agreement shows that the two sides have reached key concessions in the areas of automobiles, agricultural products and industrial products.According to the agreement, an additional tariff of 10% will be applied to the first 100,000 vehicles exported by the UK to the United States, and the excess will be increased to 25%. The United States will completely cancel tariffs on British steel and aluminum products, while the United Kingdom will reduce U.S. import ethanol tariffs to zero and implement zero tariffs on U.S. agricultural products within quotas.

In fact, this arrangement may seem balanced, but in fact it implies asymmetry-the United States has retained the 10%"reciprocal tariffs" imposed on other trading partners, and the details of the agreement still need to be finalized in several weeks, especially those involving non-tariff barriers. The implementation timetable has not yet been clarified.Still, markets interpret it as a sign of easing global trade tensions.After the agreement was announced, Boeing announced that it had received a US$10 billion order for wide-body aircraft from a British airline, further boosting confidence in the industrial sector and pushing Boeing's share price, a Dow component, to rise more than 4% on the day.

Liquidity expectations behind technology stocks led the gains

Large technology stocks have become the core engine of this round of gains. Tesla and Nvidia both rose more than 3%, and Microsoft and Amazon also performed strongly-a phenomenon closely related to the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift.The previously announced annual rate of the core PCE price index in the United States fell to 2.6% in January, the lowest since June 2024. Although the monthly rate of 0.3% hit a new high, it was still in line with expectations.

After the data was released, long-term U.S. bond yields fell, reflecting investors 'judgment that inflationary pressures have weakened, and thus strengthening their bet that the Federal Reserve will maintain 1-2 interest rate cuts in 2025.Robert Ruggirello, chief investment officer of Brave Eagle Wealth Management, pointed out that although the timing of interest rate cuts may be delayed, slowing inflation leaves room for adjustment in monetary policy. As high-growth assets, technology stocks are more attractive in a low interest rate environment.

Trump's "order-calling economics" and the controversy over market manipulation

Trump's call to "buy stocks" is not an isolated incident.As early as April 9, 2025, after it hinted at "buying timing" through social media, the three major U.S. stock indexes surged 7%-12% that day, raising questions about insider trading.This call combined with the positive trade agreement has once again triggered the vigilance of regulators.

Senate Democrats have asked the SEC to investigate whether Trump and his associates have used asymmetry in policy information to profit.Historical data shows that the president's direct intervention in market sentiment was short-lived: in December 2018, Trump called for a bottom-hunting after the market plunged on Christmas Eve. Although the Dow rebounded 1,000 points the next day, U.S. stocks still fell into depth in the following months. Adjustment.

Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson warned that if the details of the agreement are not implemented as scheduled, or differences with the United States widen in subsequent negotiations in the UK on sensitive issues such as digital taxes and data flows, the market may undergo a sharp reversal.

The bull market endurance problem under structural risks

Despite frequent short-term positive trends, long-term risk factors for U.S. stocks cannot be ignored.First of all, the contradiction between slowing corporate earnings growth and high valuations has become prominent.The technology giants represented by the "Big Seven" fell more than 5% in February, and Tesla fell 27.57% in a single month, indicating that funds are reassessing the rationality of the premium for growth stocks.

Second, the lag effect of the Fed's monetary policy shift is gradually emerging.Although the market is looking forward to cutting interest rates, the current federal funds rate is still at a high level of 5%-5.25%, and the suppression of rising corporate financing costs on technology companies 'capital expenditures will be gradually exposed in future quarterly earnings reports.

In addition, the impact of global geopolitical risks and supply chain restructuring on the profits of multinational companies has not yet been fully priced.For example, although the hierarchical design of automobile tariffs in the U.S. -UK agreement protects domestic U.S. manufacturers, it may intensify the trade counterattack of European allies and drag down the global layout of multinational automobile companies.