Market analysis

美股早盘延续前日苹果（AAPL）宣布投资千亿美元，且川普表示若在美设厂或投资可望获得半导体关税减免的乐观情绪，早盘开高。然而，市场随即聚焦联准会主席人选的最新消息，加上碰到前方压力区，美股盘中回落。根据彭博社报导，川普团队倾向由现任联准会理事 Christopher Waller 接任鲍尔主席一职。Waller 在 7 月 FOMC 会议中以对劳动市场转弱的担忧为由，成为少数与会中主张主动降息的理事。他亦曾公开表示，若获提名为主席，愿意接受此一职位。另外，川普宣布提名现任经济顾问委员会主席 Stephen Miran，补上前一周辞职的联准会理事 Adriana Kugler 职缺，任期至 2026 年 1 月底。虽仍需寻找永久接任人选，但该消息稍微舒缓市场疑虑，美股终场收敛跌幅，几近平盘作收。类股方面，资讯科技类股表现亮眼，苹果（AAPL）上涨 3.2%、辉达（NVDA）与博通（AVGO）创历史新高，分别上涨 0.8% 与 0.7%；超微（AMD）在分析师上调评级后大涨 5.7%，展现资金积极回流 AI 与半导体概念股。医疗保健类股领跌，主要因礼来（LLY）重挫逾 14%。尽管第二季财报超预期，但口服 GLP-1 新药试验结果未达市场期待，导致股价大幅修正；金融板块承压，川普签署行政命令，要求政府调查大型银行是否基于政治或宗教立场拒绝提供金融服务，导致摩根大通（JPM）、美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）均下跌逾1%，压抑整体金融指数。 

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Lilly raises full-year financial forecast, Mounjaro and Zepbound sales surge, but oral weight loss drug data eclipse

Lilly's second-quarter results were significantly better than expected. Thanks to the explosion in sales of diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight-loss drug Zepbound, the company raised its 2025 revenue forecast to US$60 billion to US$62 billion, and its EPS forecast rose to US$21.75 to US$23. However, late trial data of oral weight loss drug orforglipron fell short of market expectations, causing the stock price to plummet by more than 10%. Despite competition from Novo Nordisk (NOVO-B.CO) and pressure from the U.S. government to lower drug prices, Lilly's market share in the GLP-1 market has reached 57%, and is expected to continue to lead.

• Core drug sales exceed expectations
  第二季 Mounjaro 销售 52 亿美元，年增 68%，高于市场预估的 44.9 亿美元；Zepbound 销售 33.8 亿美元，年增 172%，同样超过预期的 30.6 亿美元。

• Financial forecast upward shows confidence
  全年营收预测由 580 亿至 610 亿美元上调至 600 亿至 620 亿美元；EPS 升至 21.75 至 23 美元，反映核心业务强劲增长动能。

• Oral drug data drags down stock prices
  Orforglipron 72 周平均减重 12.4%，不及诺和诺德 Wegovy 的 14.9%，引发市场失望，股价早盘跌至 671.54 美元。

• GLP-1 market share expands
  美国 incretin 类药物市占率达 57%，Zepbound 与 Wegovy 周处方数分别为 418,597 与 281,725，显示竞争优势扩大。

• Policy and competitive pressures coexist
  面临美国关税与药价下调政策，以及诺和诺德与仿制药竞争，但 CEO 表示管线充足，未来有望推出更多重磅产品。

 

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The United States imposes tariffs on many countries to a century-old high. Although Trump takes negotiating advantages, he still faces economic and legal challenges.

Since taking office, U.S. President Trump has significantly increased import tariffs, pushing the effective tariff rate from 2.5% to about 17%-19%. It is expected to approach 20%, a century high. He has also reached a framework agreement with the European Union, Japan, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan and the Philippines, covering about 40% of trade volume. However, India and Brazil were imposed a high 50% tariff due to policy differences, while China temporarily enjoyed a 30% tariff until August 12. Although the U.S. trade deficit has narrowed and global retaliatory tariffs have been limited, uncertainties remain about the implementation of commitments, the impact of inflation, and the legitimacy of tariffs.

• Tariff policy rises sharply
  上任初期美国有效关税率仅约 2.5%，目前已升至 17%-19%，部分国家如印度、巴西面临 50% 关税，中国暂为 30%。

• Negotiation results and coverage
  已与八国达成 10%-20% 关税框架协议，若加上中国，涵盖美国近 54% 贸易流量，惟部分承诺缺乏明确执行机制。

• mixed economic data
  6 月贸易逆差缩小 16%，对中逆差创 21 年新低，但部分就业、通膨与需求数据显示关税已开始产生负面影响。

• Uncertainty in investment and procurement commitments
  日本承诺投资 5,500 亿美元、欧盟 6,000 亿美元，但多依赖民间自愿执行，且缺乏强制约束力。

• Legal and policy risks
  川普援引 1977 年《国际紧急经济权力法》单边加税，已遭上诉法院质疑，结果可能进入最高法院审理，影响政策持续性。

 

Trump nominated Stephen Miran to serve as a temporary Fed governor, advocating strengthening the president's control over the central bank

U.S. President Trump announced the nomination of Stephen Miran, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to serve as a temporary governor of the Federal Reserve to fill the vacancy left by former governor Kugler's resignation for a term until January 31, 2026. Milan has long advocated shortening the term of governors, allowing the president to replace members at any time, placing 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks under the jurisdiction of governors, and including the Federal Reserve budget in congressional approval, with the goal of improving political accountability and policy transparency. The move is seen as a step in Trump's efforts to cut interest rates and restructure central bank governance, but requires Senate approval and only four policy meetings will be left during his term.

• Personnel background and political influence
  米兰为川普政府经济顾问委员会主席，曾批评美联储「缺乏问责」与「政策同温层」，支持更强总统干预，可能为川普推动宽松货币政策提供助力。

• Content of reform proposals
  建议将理事任期由 14 年缩至 8 年，并明订总统可随时撤换；将地区联储董事会改由州长任命，区分政治属性；扩大全部 12 位地区行长的政策表决权。

• Impact of institutional change
  若落实，将结束自 1930 年代以来的美联储独立架构，并可能引发央行政治化争议，需要国会立法支持。

• Validation procedures and time pressure
  提名需经参议院银行委员会听证与全院表决，国会 9 月 2 日复会后还需处理政府资金法案，留给米兰的行动窗口有限。

• Monetary policy background
  美联储目前将利率维持在 4.25%-4.50%，近期就业数据走弱促使部分决策者倾向 9 月降息，与川普及部分理事的政策主张一致。

 

stocks

Trump calls on Intel CEO Chen Liwu to resign, questioning his China investment relationship

U.S. President Trump publicly called on Intel (INTC) CEO Chen Liwu to resign immediately, alleging that his extensive investments with China companies have created a high conflict of interest. Reuters disclosed in April this year that Chen Liwu has invested at least US$200 million in more than 600 China technology and manufacturing companies through venture capital funds and holding companies from 2012 to 2024, some of which are linked to the China People's Liberation Army. The move attracted the attention of Congress, especially as Intel undertakes chip manufacturing tasks from the U.S. Department of Defense and receives an $8 billion subsidy from the Chip and Science Act.

• The president rarely puts direct pressure
  川普称陈立武「高度冲突」，并指唯一解决方案是辞职，为美国总统罕见公开介入大型企业人事。

• Congress and media questioned
  参议员汤姆·科顿致函英特尔董事会，询问陈立武在成为 CEO 前是否充分揭露投资及利益冲突，并关注其前公司楷登电子 (CDNS) 对中国军事院校销售产品案。

• China's investment network is huge
  路透调查发现，陈立武及其创投机构与中国政府基金、国企共同持有至少 20 项投资，部分对象为受美国制裁的中国军工供应商。

• Intel's response and stock price reaction
  英特尔表示，公司与 CEO 致力于维护美国国家安全，并将持续与政府合作；消息公布后股价下跌 3%。

• Overwhelming business challenges
  英特尔近年在制程与 AI 晶片市场落后台积电与辉达 (NVDA)，市值跌破 1,000 亿美元，利润率仅为历史高点的一半，战略转型与领导层稳定性正受多重压力考验。