The USDCAD surged briefly on early Friday following President Trump’s formal letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, announcing a カナダの輸入品に対する 35% の関税は 8 月 1 日発効. The move cited national security concerns over fentanyl smuggling and a persistent trade deficit. While the announcement initially sparked bullish momentum, the rally failed to hold as price action quickly reversed.

それにもかかわらず、金曜日の関税に関する最初の動きは、水曜日と木曜日の 1.3710 のスイングレベルを上回り、 5 月の高値である 1.37208 から 38.2% の動きを下回ったが、勢いは減速し失敗した。バイヤーはショットを持っていて、逃しました。

After falling back below the 1.3710, the pair moved up toward NA セッションで 1.3710 off the volatility from the jobs report which was stronger than expected (but most was temporary workers), matching the week’s earlier highs, but could not break through (see green numbered circle on the chart above).

Sellers leaned into resistance, and price rotated back down toward the 100-時間移動平均 (currently around 1.3682), which has been acting as a pivot point amid choppy, rangebound trading since Wednesday. The 200-時間 MA is also rising and approaching the 1.3649 — 1.3651 サポートゾーン, a level where the pair found solid footing on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday last week paren see red numbered circles on the chart above).

The failure to sustain the tariff-inspired breakout suggests hesitation among traders, likely due to exemptions under USMCA. Until the pair can clearly break above 1.3710 1.37208 で 38.2% のリトレース, or below 1.3649 （ 先週の短期 4 と 200 時間移動平均 ）, expect continued two-way trading, with the moving averages acting as key technical guides.