The NZDUSD started the week under pressure, with the move lower beginning near the 200-小时均线, which sat at 0.6061 at the time. Monday's high reached 0.6058, but sellers leaned against that level, triggering a move to the downside. The decline extended into Tuesday and Wednesday, with the pair 跌破50%回撤位 of the May low-to-June high rally, which comes in at 0.5982. While the pair traded below that key level on 三个不同的场合, including a 周三低点0.5975, it failed to build sustained momentum below the midpoint.

A rebound began midweek, with the price climbing to a high of 0.6042 early in Friday’s Asian session—once again just shy of the now-lower 200-小时移动平均线0.6044. Interestingly, the week 开始和结束 with sellers leaning against the 200-hour MA, 提高下周该级别的技术重要性. Keep that moving average in mind into next week's trading.

The latest leg lower today initially found support near the 100-小时移动平均线0.6006 (blue line), but over the past several hours, the pair has been 徘徊在该水平之上和之下, signaling a market in pause mode as it digests recent moves.

Heading into next week, the 100-小时MA将作为近期晴雨表 for bias. A 从100小时MA反弹 could refocus attention on the 200-hour MA as key resistance near 0.6036-0.6044. On the flip side, a 势头跌破100小时均线 opens the door back toward 0.5982 (50% retracement) and 0.5975 (weekly low).

While 卖家占据上风 this week, especially with the pair spending most of the time below the 200-hour MA, 买家表现出决心 at the 50% level. With price now caught in between, the 战线已划定 at the moving averages. Traders will be watching for a break to determine the next directional push.