The 澳元兑美元仍限制在波动、来回波动的范围内, though with a 略有看涨倾斜 following this week’s 澳大利亚储备银行（RBA） decision. The central bank surprised markets on Tuesday by 维持基准利率不变, defying expectations for a 降息25个基点. The surprise shifted sentiment in favor of the Aussie dollar, giving the AUDUSD pair a boost. However, that upside momentum is now being tested.

Today’s session saw 买家试图突破0.6535至0.6556之间的关键阻力位（参见红色编号圆圈）, but the move 未能守住, with price retreating back below the zone amid renewed 美元买入 during the U.S. session. That potential 假中断 leaves bulls on the back foot, and the upside momentum in question.

Technically, both sides have had their chances—and both missed. 本周早些时候，当两人跌破200点移动平均线时，卖家有一个窗口期 on the 4-hour chart (on Monday). But the RBA’s decision quickly 削弱了熊市, pushing price back above both the 100-bar和200 bar MA, which currently sit near 0.6522 and 0.6506 (see blue and green lines).

Now, the pair trades back within the swing area marked by prior highs and lows (see red numbered circles on the chart), and though the 偏见是比较中性的 in the short term, the 价格仍远高于两个关键移动平均线—a point in favor of the bulls.

To 重燃下行动力, sellers would need to force a move 回到100/200 MA以下. A sustained break there would shift the bias lower and expose the 6月低点回撤50%, which comes in near 0.64809.

On the flip side, for 多头重新控制权, the pair needs to 回推至0.6556上方 and then target the 近期高点0.6590附近. A break above that zone would build stronger bullish conviction and open the door for further upside extension.

For now, 澳元兑美元仍处于拉锯战, with central bank policy and technical barriers keeping the pair 范围有限且优柔寡断. The next directional move may hinge on which side gains control around the 100-和200条移动平均线.