The EURUSD attempted to break above its 200-小时移动平均线在1.13510 in early U.S. trading, but—just like on Friday—buyers lacked follow-through and momentum quickly faded. The failed breakout attracted fresh selling interest, and the price has since rotated lower, falling back below both the 200小时 and 100-小时移动平均线 (the latter at 1.13354), shifting short-term control back to the sellers.

The next downside target lies at 1.13072, a low from the week before last. A break below that level would open the door toward the key 挥杆面积在1.1271和1.12754之间. Beyond that, the 3月至4月涨势的38.2%回撤位位于1.12505—a critical level for buyers to defend if they want to maintain control of the broader uptrend.

Despite buyers struggling to extend gains, sellers also have work to do. Only a firm move below 1.12505 level (the 38.2% retracement) would signal that they are regaining more meaningful control, challenging the buyers from the 843-pip rally from 3月27日低点1.0729，4月21日高点1.15726.