The USDJPY moved lower in early U.S. trading, finding support near the bottom of a 143.57和143.84之间的摆动区域, while also holding just above the 200小时移动平均线上升, currently at 143.44. The price has since been oscillating around the 100-小时移动平均线为143.93, but remains 低于3月高点至4月低点144.208的38.2%回撤位—a level it briefly traded above during the Asian and early European sessions.

This area represents a 紧密的技术集群, with the 200-hour MA offering support to the downside and the 38.2% retracement acting as resistance to the upside.

Last week, the pair surged on Thursday and Friday, breaking through several key targets—including the 100- and 200-hour MAs, the 38.2%, and even the 50% retracement—but ultimately stalled at the 4小时图上200柱移动平均线下降, which capped the rally and triggered a move lower.

Now, with price back 低于38.2%回撤位 and indecisive around the 100-hour MA, 熊市风险正在积聚. Traders will be watching for a firm move below the 200-hour MA at 143.44 to increase downside potential, while a break back above 144.208 would be needed to restore upside momentum.