Market analysis

川普于上周四晚间正式公布对多数贸易伙伴调高关税，包括台湾将面临 20%、东南亚多国约 19% ~ 20% 的新税率，加拿大关税亦自 25% 上调至 35%。这些新措施（加拿大除外）将于七天内生效，市场情绪转趋保守。另外，盘前公布的 7 月非农就业数据明显低于预期，仅新增 7.3 万个职位（预期为 11 万），且过去两月数据还大幅下修近 26 万人，使近三个月平均新增职位仅为 3.5 万，失业率亦上升至 4.2%；美国 7 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 指数受川普政府新一轮关税影响，进口原物料价格上涨与需求不确定性加剧，使企业加速裁员、削减产能，导致指数从 49 略降至 48，低于市场预期的 49.5。劳动市场快速降温及经济数据略显疲态，市场对联准会 9 月降息的预期迅速升高，全年降息预估扩大至两码，压低美债殖利率。美股因经济不确定性加剧下应声走低。随后，市场进一步消化经济数据与联准会多位官员的谈话。克利夫兰 Fed 总裁称劳动市场仍健康；理事 Christopher Waller 与 Michelle Bowman 则对维持利率表示异议，强调迟迟不降息恐拖累就业；而理事 Adriana Kugler 宣布辞职，将使川普提前有机会任命新政策制定者，左右联准会利率政策方向。同时，川普还宣布解雇统计局局长 Erika McEntarfer，此举引发外界关注未来政府是否会对经济数据发布机构施加压力，对统计独立性产生疑虑，增添投资人对政策稳定性的观望情绪。综合以上，美股全面下挫，标普创近两个月半以来最大单日跌幅，那指更下跌逾 2.2%。类股方面，仅少数防御型类股逆势收红。由于市场预期川普政府可能放宽对减肥药补助的限制，医疗保健类股表现最佳，其中礼来（LLY）上涨 3.0%；公用事业及必需消费品也小幅上涨。相对而言，成长型类股表现疲弱，非必需消费类股因亚马逊（AMZN）重挫超过 8% 拖累；资讯科技类股也遭受狙击，苹果（AAPL）虽缴出自 2021 年以来最佳单季营收成长的亮眼成绩，但股价开高走低，最后收跌 2.5%，显示市场对未来成长仍保持谨慎。 

major news item closely

general manager Daryl

Trump's late-night raid kicks off a tariff storm again, and the global trading system is facing instability

U.S. President Trump made a surprise announcement on the eve of the tariff deadline on August 1 that he would impose a new tax rate of up to 40% on transshipment goods and readjust tariffs on dozens of countries. Some countries such as Canada and Switzerland were hit hard. Trump's "late-night decision-making" has become part of his governance style, continuing to disrupt global supply chains and market expectations, and further exposing the global economy to the dual pressure of inflation and declining growth. Although some countries such as Mexico have been postponed for negotiations, overall trade rules have been reshaped. U.S. -China negotiations are still in progress, and the market is highly vigilant about more policy variables in the future.

• Surprise tariffs become the norm
  川普在期限前突然宣布40%对转运商品课税，同步调高加拿大至35%、瑞士至39%等国税率，显示「突袭谈判」策略系统化操作。

• Markets and companies are overwhelmed
  各国贸易代表、企业与投资人不得不应对变化频繁的政策，部分国家如南非、马来西亚虽获豁免或调降，但整体预期混乱。

• The economic shock is already there
  耶鲁研究显示美国有效关税率将达18.3%，创1934年来新高，2025年美国家庭平均将因此多支出约2,400美元。

• The international system has been reshaped
  专家指出川普此举已实质撕毁二战后建立的自由贸易秩序，未来关税将成地缘政治工具而非经济政策。

• There is still room for negotiation, but risks remain
  尽管欧盟、日本、墨西哥等与美达成协议，分析师预警更多国仍可能遭新关税波及，法规挑战与法院诉讼也正在酝酿中。

 

U.S. manufacturing shrank for five consecutive months, factory employment fell to a five-year low

The U.S. manufacturing industry continued to weaken. The manufacturing purchasing managers 'index (PMI) fell to 48.0 in July, the fifth consecutive month of contraction, while the factory employment index fell to its lowest level since July 2020. Affected by the Trump administration's new round of tariffs, the prices of imported raw materials have risen and demand uncertainty has intensified, causing companies to accelerate layoffs and reduce production capacity. Although the production index rebounded slightly, the overall demand side is still weak, indicating that economic activity will slow further in the third quarter, and the manufacturing industry may become the leading indicator of economic slowdown.

• PMI once again fell below the 50-point line
  ISM制造业指数7月从前值49降至48，低于市场预期的49.5，显示整体产业持续处于收缩状态，进一步加深经济衰退疑虑。

• Employment index hits five-year low
  制造业就业指数降至43.4，为2020年7月以来最低水准，反映企业因应需求前景不明加快人力调整。

• New orders are still shrinking
  新订单指数虽回升至47.1，仍连续第六个月处于收缩区间，显示内需与出口皆未见明显回暖。

• Inflation pressure has not subsided but is slowing down slightly
  原物料价格指数降至64.8，仍处高档但较前月回落；供应商交货时间改善，有助于稳定部分成本压力。

• Tariff effects are gradually emerging
  随关税抬升进口成本，加剧制造业成本压力，短期内恐对企业投资与生产决策产生更多抑制效应。

 

U.S. job growth plummeted in July, and the Fed faces rising pressure to cut interest rates

The United States added only 73,000 non-agricultural employment in July, far lower than the market expectation of 110,000. The data for the first two months was significantly revised down to a total of 258,000, indicating that the labor market has cooled significantly. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.2%, the highest in nearly 15 months, raising the possibility of renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently stated that he preferred to "sit tight", in the face of slowing economic growth and a weak labor market, policy differences have begun to emerge within the Federal Reserve, and some officials have publicly advocated that interest rates should be cut immediately. At the same time, the Trump administration's high tariff and immigration policies exacerbate supply bottlenecks and inflation risks, making the Fed's decision-making more challenging.

• Employment data deteriorated sharply
  7月新增就业73,000人，为近五年最低；6月数据由14.7万人大幅下修至14,000人，5月亦下修至19,000人。近三月平均仅增35,000人，远低于去年同期123,000人。

• Unemployment rose to 15-month high
  7月失业率升至4.2%，劳动参与率连三月下滑至62.2%，显示求职人数减少与企业招募放缓双重压力。

• Policy differences within the Federal Reserve intensify
  Waller与Bowman两位理事主张应提前降息以防经济衰退，而多位地区联准会主席则认为仍需观察更多数据。

• Market bets on two rate cuts this year
  联邦基金期货显示市场预期今年将降息约63个基点，首次降息时点由10月提前至9月，并预估12月再降一次。

• Trade and immigration policies impact labor market
  川普新关税与移民打压导致企业难以规划未来成本与招募策略，制造、专业服务与批发业等领域出现裁员潮。

 

OPEC+ nine countries announced another increase in production in September, fully reversing the production reduction strategy to regain market share

OPEC+ announced on Sunday that it will increase crude oil production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, continuing the accelerated pace of production increase since April, with the intention of fully reversing the previous policy of large-scale production cuts and regaining dominance of the global oil market. This increase in production has brought the total increase in OPEC+8 production since April to approximately 2.5 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 2.4% of global demand. Despite the increase in production, Brent crude oil prices remain high, reflecting that market fundamentals are still tight and supporting OPEC+ to continue to increase supply. The next meeting will be held on September 7 and may discuss whether to end the remaining 1.65 million barrels per day production reduction quota. The market will focus on further developments in U.S. sanctions against Russia.

• Nine countries join hands to increase production
  OPEC+内八个核心成员国举行简短线上会议，决议9月每日增产54.7万桶，自4月以来总增产已达250万桶/日，逆转最大规模的减产份额。

• High oil prices support confidence in increasing production
  布兰特油价上周收于每桶近70美元，自4月低点反弹逾20%。产油国认为库存偏低且需求强劲，为进一步增产提供条件。

• China hoarding of oil helps the market absorb growth
  瑞银指出，中国持续囤积原油缓解市场供需压力，使目前增产尚未导致油价下跌。

• Unsolved geopolitical risks
  美国持续向印度施压停止进口俄油，并希望迫使俄罗斯重回乌克兰谈判桌。相关变数将影响OPEC+后续策略。

• The next challenge is looming
  虽已顺利逆转最大一波减产，OPEC+仍须面对是否在明年结束前撤回其余每日165万桶减产的困难决策，考验组织凝聚力与市场反应。

 

stocks

Joby joins hands with L3Harris to create a self-driving or manned hybrid military vertical take-off and landing aircraft

Joby Aviation (JOBY) and defense contractor L3Harris (LHX) announced a partnership to develop a new generation of military vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) aircraft that combines manned and autonomous flight capabilities, and is expected to launch field demonstrations in 2026. The plan has attracted attention under the guidance of the U.S. military's active promotion of automation and cost-effectiveness. Joby has also simultaneously expanded its California production line, hoping to further expand the development layout of military and commercial dual-line.

• Combining advanced VTOL with military systems technology
  Joby提供S4机型作为研发基础，并采用燃气涡轮引擎设计；L3Harris则提供军用认证与任务系统整合技术，合作重点锁定侦察、补给与前线物流等军事应用场景。

• Dual track development of military and commercial
  Joby过去八年已与五角大厦合作，L3Harris此次加入象征其军方合作关系升级；该公司亦正于阿联酋部署其首架电动垂直起降机，预计2026年商转。

• Defense policy promotes technical efficiency
  川普政府力促联邦开支效率，军方正转向小型、可模组化、自主化平台以取代高昂传统机型，如阿帕契直升机，这类低空支援需求为本案创造发展空间。

• Low-altitude aviation market is heating up
  乌俄战争等冲突改变军方对低空航空作战思维，加速无人与垂直机的布局；Joby表示此次开发重点是从示范快速迈向可部署阶段。

• Both companies 'share prices are strong
  Joby股价2025年已翻倍，L3Harris年初至今上涨30%，反映市场对其在未来军民通用航空市场的信心与期待。