[Pre-market U.S. Stocks] Tariff inflation and Federal Reserve Chairman's personnel are in line with high-end U.S. stock futures (2025.08.14)

Risk and catalysis coexist, and pre-market sentiment tends to wait and see,

On Thursday, Taiwan time, U.S. stocks entered consolidation after the Standard & Poor's and Nasdaq hit new highs. The market focus returned to the re-pressurization of tariff inflation and the personnel variables of the Federal Reserve Board Chairman. Futures indexes fluctuated slightly at the high end, investors were concerned about the traction of policies and inflation paths on evaluation, and short-term differences between technology and cyclical stocks increased.

Cooling inflation and rising tariffs suppress risk appetite and

The latest lower-than-expected CPI cooling will help relieve interest rate pressure, but mainstream Wall Street views have begun to focus on the tariff transmission effect. Many institutions have assessed that the recent tariff rounds in February and April are gradually reflected on the retail side, and the downward trend of core inflation is facing challenges, which has increased the uncertainty of the pace of interest rate cuts and the end interest rate, and pushed pre-market funds to become more cautious.

Wall Street has reached a consensus on tariff inflation, and Goldman Sachs research has been echoed by peers.

Goldman Sachs(GS) reiterated its research conclusion that the terminal pass-through rate of tariff costs has increased, arguing that consumers may bear the main burden in the future. UBS pointed out that the downward trend of core inflation is showing signs of interruption, and JPMorgan Chase also estimated that the cumulative contribution of tariffs to inflation is about 1 to 1.5 percentage points, and some of the impact has already occurred. The gap between policy and data has become the biggest variable before the market today.

Policy uncertainty extends to Fed personnel, making interpretation of the interest rate outlook more complex,

Market sources say that Trump is considering 11 candidates for the Fed chairman, including current Fed officials, former Bush administration economic adviser, chief market strategist at Jefferies(JEF) David Zervos and BlackRock(BLK) head of fixed income Rick Rieder. Personnel tendencies affect monetary policy style and inflation tolerance, and the market has become more sensitive to long-term interest rates and financial conditions.

After a historical high, the technical side is stronger, and short-term momentum is intertwined with fundamentals.

On Wednesday, Taiwan time, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose simultaneously, with the S & P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new closing highs, and Dow Jones also closing red. Entertainment media merged theme stocks rose more than 30% in intraday trading, strengthening appetite for risk. However, Asia-Pacific stock markets generally fell back on Thursday, with the European stock Stoxx Europe 600 index rising 0.54%. Cross-regional divergences tilted U.S. stock sentiment towards high-end hands before the opening bell.

High-end consolidation of futures and slowing down volume and energy, pre-market trading focuses on weight and subject matter,

Dow Jones, S & P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures fluctuated within narrow ranges near flat, as investors continue to assess the pressure of tariff inflation on corporate gross profit and valuations. Weight technology and boom cycle stocks have shown signs of rotation at historical high levels. Pre-market transactions are mainly large-scale weights and policy themes, and volume and energy are relatively cautious.

Personnel news appears on AI themes, which has limited impact on the mood of the sector.

Igor Babuschkin, co-founder of Musk's xAI, left his post and turned to supporting AI security research and new investment. The market interprets it as a normal evolution of the company's long-term talent and ecological layout, which does not have an immediate impact on the fundamentals of the main AI line of U.S. stocks. The pre-market focus is still on cloud capital expenditures and the implementation progress of generative AI.

Interaction between large technologies and the White House is heating up, supply chains and tariff risks are rebalanced,

Nvidia(NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) and Apple(AAPL) have recently interacted more closely with the White House on the tariff environment and industrial investment in an attempt to gain friendlier tariff treatment. This move highlights that leading companies are actively reducing cost fluctuations through localized investment and long-term contract strategies. The marginal impact of semiconductor and hardware communities and the allocation of origin have attracted much attention.

The divergence of opinions among securities firms has intensified the rotation of the sector, and the sentiment of software groups has stabilized.

As discussions on tariffs and inflation heat up, Morgan Stanley is turning positive on a large software stock, believing that the previous decline triggered by conservative financial forecasts has created a better entry point. Although the fundamental trend of the sector has not changed, the risk premium that helps repair high-quality software assets has become emotional support for pre-market software and cloud communities.

Inflation and policy paths affect interest rate sensitive groups, and stock selection returns to cash flow quality,

If tariff inflation continues to penetrate, retail and durable goods, and hardware and automobile chains that are highly dependent on imports may face cost pressures; financial groups are concerned about short-and long-term spreads and changes in credit demand. Investors focus on assets with solid visibility and free cash flow and assess whether companies 'pricing power is sufficient to hedge against rising costs.

International signals are intertwined, looking at policies in the short term and looking at productivity in the long term.

The decline in Asian stocks has restrained risk appetite, while the moderate rise in European stocks reflects resilience expectations for corporate profits. After reaching a high, U.S. stocks still face uncertainty about policies and inflation, but the AI-driven productivity cycle and U.S. companies 'capital expenditure momentum still remain. The overall tone before the market was set at high-end shocks, waiting to see the real impact of tariff inflation transmission speed and Fed personnel dynamics on the interest rate curve.

Today's attention and risk warnings,

The pre-market focus focused on the transmission of tariff inflation to corporate gross margins, the impact of the Fed chairman's personnel on the policy framework, and follow-up details of large-scale technology interactions with the White House. The risk-reward appeal of the index at historical highs has declined. The market relies more on real data and company information to verify fundamentals, and short-term volatility may remain in a high range.