Market analysis

美股本周进入观望模式，关键事件包括周四凌晨的 FOMC 会议纪录、周五主席鲍尔于 Jackson Hole 的演说，以及多位官员（Bowman、Waller、Bostic）的公开谈话，市场将从中寻找 9 月降息的线索。同时，川普与乌克兰总统泽伦斯基的会晤气氛较先前改善，并释出推动美俄乌三方会谈的意向，为地缘风险带来潜在转机。零售方面，投资人等待 Target(TGT)与沃尔玛(WMT)财报，评估关税调涨对美国消费力道的影响。在多重不确定下，美股全天仅小幅震荡，指数涨跌有限。类股方面，房地产跌幅较深，主要受 NAHB 建商信心指数下滑影响，建商降价与优惠增加引发疑虑；资讯科技则是涨跌互见；通讯服务的 Meta(META)因智慧眼镜定价不如预期、AI 组织频繁异动及监管疑虑而下跌约 2.3；工业的航空股延续涨势，联合航空(UAL)、达美航空(DAL)受益于票价上涨，Uber(UBER)则因投资生鲜杂货业务获德银正面评价；非必需消费表现相对亮眼，邮轮族群如 Royal Caribbean(RCL)、Carnival(CCL)受到旅游需求回升带动，Booking(BKNG)亦同步走强。 

Quick view of financial report

Palo Alto Networks reported better than expected, with AI-driven security layout upgraded and announced the founder's retirement

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) announced financial results, with revenue and profits exceeding market expectations and released an optimistic outlook for the 2026 fiscal year, showing that AI-driven demand for information security continues to be strong. The company also announced the retirement of founder and chief technology officer Nir Zuk, and senior product director Lee Klarich took over as CTO and joined the board of directors. Recently announced the acquisition of Israeli identity security company CyberArk for US$25 billion, making it the largest acquisition in history, further expanding its presence in the field of AI, information security applications. Although stock prices have fallen slightly since the beginning of the year, the market has responded positively to future growth potential, with stock prices rising nearly 5% after hours.

• 财报与展望双双优于预期
  第四季营收年增16%至25.4亿美元，优于市场预估的25亿；调整后每股盈余为0.95美元，亦优于预期的0.88美元。2026财年预估营收为104.8亿至105.3亿美元，全年调整后EPS预估为3.75至3.85美元，皆高于市场预期。

• AI驱动资安产品需求强劲
  公司受惠于企业加速云端转型与自动化资安需求增加，AI导向的新产品如「Prisma AIRS」与「Cortex Cloud」助推成长动能，成为核心发展主轴。

• 收购CyberArk强化身分安全能力
  以250亿美元收购CyberArk，有望创造交叉销售机会，巩固其在AI资安与身分管理市场的领导地位。

• 技术长交接释出新策略讯号
  创办人Zuk退休，由资深主管Klarich接任，并将担任董事会资安委员会主席，象征公司未来将加速推动AI平台整合策略。

• 高阶客户与订单动能稳健
  第一季预估未完成订单达154亿至155亿美元，高于市场预期，显示企业客户对长期资安投入仍具信心。

 

major news item closely

general manager Daryl

Trump promotes Russia-Ukraine peace talks, markets focus on the end of war, but experts warn there is no "quick solution"

U.S. President Trump held a summit at the White House, promising to help ensure the security of Ukraine in the peace agreement and facilitating trilateral negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine President Zelensky. Despite market hopes for an end to the war, European and U.S. officials have warned that peace talks are still in their early stages and the process may be long. Trump's tendency to accept Moscow's terms for talks, including not requiring a ceasefire as a prerequisite for negotiations, has aroused concern among European leaders. Although Zelensky expressed gratitude for the US signal, Ukraine has not yet accepted a peace draft that may involve territorial transfer.

• 川普承诺协助安全保障
  在白宫会谈中，川普向泽伦斯基表示，美国将协助欧洲确保乌克兰的未来安全，但细节尚未明朗。川普亦透露已联络普丁并安排后续三方峰会。

• 和平谈判陷入地缘与领土争议
  俄方要求在让渡乌东领土的前提下才愿停火，普丁并已拒绝参与高阶会谈；泽伦斯基则反对交出任何乌克兰主权领土。

• 欧洲领袖要求先停火
  德、法等国领袖强调，进入正式谈判前必须先实现停火，但川普则认为持续战斗可能有战略优势，并未坚持此条件。

• 市场高度关注谈判进展
  全球股市对和平谈判反应不一，美股期货回落，欧洲防御类股如Rheinmetall、BAE Systems大涨，投资人押注即便无协议，欧洲军费亦将上升。

• 专家警告和平难以速成
  前美国大使指出，类似规模的冲突和平协议往往需5至10年完成，期望短期内实现战争终结可能过于乐观。

 

industry

China holds the first World Humanoid Robot Games, Unitree performs brilliantly against Tesla Optimus

The first "World Humanoid Robot Games" held in Beijing came to a successful conclusion. China's local robot company Unitree won multiple medals in the event and became one of Tesla's (TSLA) Optimus's main competitors. The competition covers dance, martial arts, track and field, football and other events, attracting a total of 280 teams from 16 countries to participate. This activity is part of the China government's plan to promote the humanoid robot industry and is expected to build a globally competitive industrial chain by 2027. In addition to sports performance, the robot also demonstrated practical skills in scenarios such as restaurants, pharmacies and factories.

• Unitree抢眼夺金
  杭州的Unitree机器人在4x100公尺接力等田径项目中表现出色，成为媒体关注焦点，正式跻身与特斯拉Optimus并列的明星机器人品牌。

• 中国加速人形机器人战略
  政府视人形机器人为未来经济支柱，计划于2027年前建立完整产业体系，并宣布明年举办第二届赛事。

• 赛事全面模拟人类活动
  机器人不仅参加体育竞技，亦进行家务挑战、药局与饭店服务测试，展现AI与机械整合的实用潜力。

• 技术迭代促进产业发展
  设计师表示比赛有助发现并改进机器人不足之处，提升真实应用场景中的操作精准度与互动性。

• 机器人文化与AI教育同步发酵
  本届赛事除技术交流外，亦提升社会对AI与人形机器人发展潜力的认知与接受度，强化未来人才培育土壤。

 

stocks

Softbank invests US$2 billion in Intel, rumored that the US government plans to invest 10% to strengthen chip sovereignty

Intel (INTC) received a US$2 billion stake from SoftBank Group, acquiring approximately 2% equity, becoming the fifth largest shareholder. News spread that the U.S. government is considering converting subsidies from the Chip Act into shares and acquiring approximately 10% equity in Intel to strengthen semiconductor sovereignty and supply chain security. Although Intel's market value has shrunk significantly in 2024, investors and policy makers have re-cast a vote of confidence under the adjustment of AI chip and wafer foundry strategies. The market interprets it as the simultaneous entry of US and Japanese funds and policy support, which is expected to rewrite Intel's weak position in the AI chip market.

• 软银入股释出信心讯号
  软银以每股23美元斥资20亿美元入股英特尔，成为其第五大股东，象征其对美国先进半导体制造能力的长期信任与战略合作意愿。

• 传美政府拟持股10%
  据彭博报导，拜川政府正考虑将英特尔获得的109亿美元晶片法案补助转换为股权，取得约10%股份，作为国家级战略资产参与。

• 英特尔晶圆代工仍待突破
  虽投入巨资建厂，英特尔晶圆代工业务至今未取得重大订单，CEO谭力文转向「按需投资」模式，与美国政策对制造能力落地期望仍存差距。

• 软银强化AI晶片布局
  软银旗下Arm市值已近1,500亿美元，近期亦宣布收购Ampere Computing，并与OpenAI、甲骨文投入Stargate计划，明确聚焦AI基础设施。

• 政策与资本力量双管齐下
  川普施政风格转趋直接介入企业战略，除英特尔外，亦对辉达 (NVDA)、MP Materials等企业促成政府协议，展现半导体国安化趋势加剧。

 

Google increases its stake in TeraWulf to 14% to help build an AI data center ecosystem

Google announced that it will invest another US$1.4 billion in TeraWulf (WULF), increasing its shareholding from 8% to 14%, strengthening the two parties 'strategic cooperation in AI computing and green energy data centers. The move pushed TeraWulf's share price up more than 4% in a single day, with a cumulative gain of nearly 90% in a week. This round of funding will be used to expand the data center campus in Lake Mariner, New York, with the goal of building one of the largest AI infrastructures in the United States. Coupled with two 10-year AI cloud computing power contracts signed by Fluidstack, TeraWulf's infrastructure layout has gradually taken shape, with a potential contract value of US$16 billion.

• Google追加投资与持股
  Google此次加码14亿美元，总支援额达32亿美元，并取得约3,250万股，成为TeraWulf第五大股东，强化双方在AI基础设施的结盟。

• 与Fluidstack签订关键合约
  TeraWulf与AI云端供应商Fluidstack签署两笔为期10年的合约，总供电容量超过200MW，Fluidstack后续再行使160MW扩建选择权，彰显市场需求强劲。

• 资料中心潜在营收可达160亿美元
  合约初期估值为67亿美元，若包含租期延长与附加条件，总价值可能扩大至160亿美元，显示稳定且具成长性的长期现金流。

• Lake Mariner将成AI运算重镇
  扩建后总IT运算负载达360MW，成为美国AI云端产业的重要节点，吸引更多AI公司与云端平台进驻。

• 发行可转债强化资本结构
  公司同时宣布发行4亿美元2031年到期之可转换公司债，进一步强化资本弹性，支撑未来扩张计划。