[Pre-market U.S. Stocks] Pre-market keywords of the day (2025.10.23)

Pressure on technology earnings and rising oil prices, pre-market risk appetite turns conservative

Volatility in financial reports of technology leaders and upward pressure on energy are simultaneously fermenting, and the market is leaning on the sidelines before the opening of tonight's market in Taiwan time. Tesla(Tesla, TSLA)'s third-quarter revenue increased by 12% year-on-year, but costs soared, profits fell by 37% year-on-year, and after-hours fell by more than 3%. After that, Netflix(NFLX) and Texas Instruments(TXN) were eclipsed, dragging down the market, and the pressure on the S & P and the Nasdaq to weaken in October remained unresolved. The White House's new sanctions on Russian crude oil pushed up the gains of Brant and U.S. Oil by about 3% during U.S. stock trading hours. Inflation sensitivity increased, making the market more cautious about the path of interest rates. Before the intensive debut of heavyweight technology earnings reports, futures and pre-market trading showed a tendency for funds to wait for new signals before deployment.

Inflation is once again in focus, as new White House sanctions on Russia push up oil prices

Early Thursday morning in Taiwan time, international oil prices rose during the U.S. stock market session due to the White House's announcement of new sanctions on two major Russian crude oil companies. Brent and West Texas crude oil rose by about 3%. Rising oil prices not only increase corporate costs, but may also disrupt inflation expectations through the transportation and energy chains. The market is concerned about the impact of this surge in oil prices on subsequent inflation data and communication with the Federal Reserve Board, and the marginal tightening of interest rate term structure and financial conditions. The risks are heating up.

Costs conceal revenue growth, Tesla is under pressure after hours

Tesla's (TSLA) revenue in the third quarter increased by 12% year-on-year to approximately US$28.1 billion, the first growth in the past three quarters, but net profit decreased by 37% year-on-year, mainly due to the downward trend in car prices and the annual increase in operating expenses of approximately 50%. The increase in expenses includes artificial intelligence and other R & D investment. Musk did not provide specific guidelines for electric vehicles in the fourth season, emphasizing the progress of the humanoid robot Optimus, and said that although the company has developed its own AI chips, it will not replace Vitek. Details of the financial report highlighted the pulling on gross profit margin and cash flow by AI capital expenditures and R & D expansion periods. After hours, the stock price fell by about 3.6% to 3.8%, adding to the volatility of technology equity stocks.

The power of science and technology has been tested one after another, and the trend in October is tied to the interpretation of financial reports.

In the remaining six trading days of October, giants such as Alphabet(GOOGL), Apple(AAPL), Meta Platforms(META), and Microsoft(MSFT) will successively announce results. Revenue momentum, cloud and AI capital expenditure pace, and management's description of demand prospects are expected to determine the strength of index momentum and market risk appetite. Affected by the eclipse of Netflix(NFLX) and Texas Instruments(TXN), although the three major indices rebounded from lows early on Thursday morning in Taiwan time, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq remained weak in October cumulatively, and the follow-up will need to wait for the revision of new earnings signals.

International markets are soft, and financial and emerging market risks are on the watch list

Asian stocks mostly fell back in early trading on Thursday. After reaching a high, the Korean stock market Kospi was pulled back due to the impact of the Bank of Korea's inaction, and the adjustment of risky asset positions continued. In terms of European stocks, the Stoxx 600 fell slightly by about 0.18%, British financial stocks performed relatively resilient, and Barclays Bank's share price rose nearly 5% due to the repurchase plan. On the other hand, the Argentine peso is still under pressure under the US$20 billion currency swap arrangement provided by the United States, indicating that capital flows and inflation risks have not yet released the pressure on the exchange rates of some emerging markets.

Content and AI industry supervision issues are heating up, and technological evaluation variables are increasing

Reddit(Reddit, RDDT) sued Perplexity in federal court in New York for unauthorized grabbing user posts for AI training. Perplexity denied the accusation. This case highlights the rising costs of data authorization and content property rights, and the possibility of re-evaluation of cooperation conditions between AI operators and platform parties, putting pressure on model training costs and legal compliance risks. On the other hand, Meta Platforms(Facebook parent company, META) reported that about 600 people were abolished in its AI unit, and core high-level recruitment was not affected, indicating that large-scale technologies continue to adjust the pace between efficiency and long-term AI investment.

Semiconductor and hardware chains are attracting attention, and demand guidance affects supply chain sentiment

Texas Instruments(TXN) has a conservative description of industrial and consumer demand, and the pace of semiconductor recycling is under review. Investors are concerned about the analogy and MCU demand replenishment strength, as well as the subsequent impact on equipment and wafer foundry capacity utilization. Although the demand for AI servers is still a bright spot, NVDA's supply chain-related shipment rhythm and gross profit structure are the focus of pre-market discussions. The market is also paying attention to the latest conversations from large cloud customers on the 2025 capital expenditure framework.

Energy and transfer of production are again supported, and pressure on aviation and transportation costs is rising

Against the backdrop of a rebound in oil prices, energy stocks are relatively defensive in pre-market sentiment, and the cash flow of refining and upstream companies is expected to benefit from a shift in the oil price range. However, energy-consuming industries such as aviation, transportation and chemicals are facing cost pressures and becoming more sensitive to profits. If the rise in oil prices continues, the risk of inflation sticking again will cause the market to pay more attention to the clues released by subsequent price indicators and Fed officials.

The legacy of significant deleveraging in the crypto market is still there, and risk sentiment is still bumpy

Within 24 hours from October 10, the crypto market experienced extreme fluctuations in which more than 1.6 million traders and approximately US$19.37 billion in leveraged positions were cleared. Afterwards, Bitcoin fell by about 10% from its peak at that time. Small and medium-sized tokens such as XRP, Solana, Dogecoin and BNB fell by about 15% to 24%. Although it is not a mainstream asset, the short-term impact of this event on cross-asset risk appetite has not subsided, adding to the volatility of the day.

Futures and pre-market trading are on the sidelines, and the opening trend depends on financial results and oil prices.

The opening is about to open at 9:30 tonight in Taiwan. The three major index futures are volatile. The market focuses on the financial forecasts of technology equity companies 'description of demand and whether the trend of oil prices continues to rise. The relative performance of cyclic-sensitive stocks such as energy, semiconductors and discretionary consumption can be used as immediate indicators of market funding orientation, while the trend of the US dollar and changes in U.S. bond yields remain the key to assessing evaluation pressure and capital risk appetite.

Today's focus is on the interpretation of financial reports and the trajectory of oil prices.

Overall, the pre-market sentiment was neutral and conservative on the day. The market was waiting for technology leaders 'financial reports and management's specific statements on the pace of AI investment, cloud demand and consumption momentum, while paying attention to the impact of further changes in oil prices and geopolitics on inflation expectations. If the financial report information can help alleviate concerns about costs and demand, it can boost the trend in late October; conversely, if oil prices continue to strengthen and financial forecasts are conservative, funds may maintain cautious position allocation, and index volatility is easily amplified by the performance of single-value stocks.