Market analysis昨日美股盘前受到消息激励 — 辉达（NVDA）与超微（AMD）同意将对中晶片销售收入的 15% 上缴美国政府，市场解读为美中贸易紧张有望缓和。加上标普 500 已有逾 9 成企业公布财报，表现可圈可点，且市场上修未来获利预估，推动美股早盘走高，那指更创历史新高。然而，随著财报季进入尾声，投资人焦点逐渐转向经济数据，包括今日周二即将公布的美国 CPI 将左右联准会降息决策，令追价意愿受限，主要指数尾盘回吐涨幅小幅收低。午盘传出白宫将延长美中关税休战90天，并为川普访华与习近平会面铺路，但未对市场走势带来显著推动。类股表现方面，油价维持两个月低点拖累能源股下挫；房地产也表现疲弱；资讯科技则因前期大涨后遭获利了结，半导体中美光（MU）受惠 HBM 需求强劲与 DRAM 价格乐观预期，上调业绩指引而大涨逾 4%，英特尔（INTC）亦在陈立武与川普会面后走高；非必需消费品中，特斯拉（TSLA）因 Model Y 税务补贴即将到期带动提前下单，加上 Robotaxi 即将开放消息劲扬；扮演防御角色的必需型消费品与医疗类股则相对抗跌，可口可乐（KO）、宝侨（PG）、礼来（LLY）等收涨。

Quick view of financial report

C3 AI's poor financial forecast and the impact of organizational restructuring have plunged 26%

C3AI (AI) announced preliminary results estimates for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, with revenue of only approximately US$70.2 million to US$70.4 million, a significant drop from US$87.2 million in the same period last year. The company is also undergoing a reorganization of its global sales and service organization. CEO Thomas Siebel bluntly said the performance was "completely unacceptable" and attributed it to restructuring disruption and his own health problems. The company's GAAP operating loss for the quarter is expected to expand to approximately US$125 million, worsening from a loss of US$72.59 million in the same period last year. Although the reorganization has been completed and Siebel's health has improved significantly in addition to vision impairment, the board of directors has launched a search for a CEO successor. The market is still holding a wait-and-see attitude on whether C3 AI can quickly reverse its operating decline.

• Revenue and losses deteriorated
  第一季营收年减逾19%，营运亏损年增逾70%，显示业绩与成本控制双双承压。

• CEO health and management engagement declines
  Siebel 因自体免疫疾病导致视力受损，减少销售参与度，影响签单与营收表现。

• Global sales and service restructuring
  重整完成但过程造成短期营收冲击，公司期望中长期提升销售效率。

• CEO succession plan launched
  董事会与Siebel共同寻找新CEO，以确保公司在AI市场竞争中维持成长动能。

• Market confidence is frustrated
  财测公布后股价单日重挫26%，反映投资人对短期前景的不安与对未来策略落实的疑虑。

major news item closely

general manager Daryl

Trump signs executive order to extend Sino-US tariff truce for 90 days, markets focus on follow-up trade negotiations

Trump signed an executive order at the last minute to extend the suspension of high U.S. tariffs on China scheduled to resume on Tuesday for 90 days until mid-November, buying more time for negotiations between the two sides. The extension stems from the results of the Stockholm talks at the end of July. The market is generally expected that Trump and Xi Jinping will hold a summit in Beijing in the coming months, possibly restarting high procurement commitments similar to the "Phase 1 Agreement." In addition to tariff issues, the negotiations also involved sensitive issues such as semiconductor export controls, rare earth supply and crude oil imports to Russia, indicating that the two sides still need to maintain economic and trade stability through interim agreements in the context of strategic competition.

• Extend tariff truce
  原本145%关税在5月降至30%，中国则降至10%；此次延长避免关税回到贸易战高峰水准，短期内减轻企业压力。

• Summit expectations and procurement commitments
  市场预计川普与习近平将在北京会晤，可能推动中国加购美国能源、农产品及部分晶片与制造设备。

• Semiconductor and Export Controls
  辉达 (NVDA) 计划恢复对华销售H20晶片，但出口限制仅属策略微调，未见根本放松；中方则争取放宽高频宽记忆体出口限制。

• Rare Earth and Energy Game
  中国放宽稀土及磁材对美出口，6月出口量创逾10年新高；美方则可能因中国购买俄油加征关税。

• Trade transshipment and regional impact
  中国对美出口下降，但对东南亚出口成长13.5%，引发美方关注「转运」规避关税的问题。

industry

Trump confirms that Vitek and Ultramicro will pay a 15% share of China AI chip sales to the U.S. government, opening up the possibility of exporting downsized Blackwell versions

U.S. President Trump confirmed that NVDA and AMD would pay the U.S. government 15% of their revenue from sales of specific AI chips to China as a condition for obtaining export licenses, and revealed that they had initially asked NVDA to pay 20%, which was reduced to 15% after negotiations with Huang Renxun. The agreement allows Fuida to resume exporting downsized versions of H20 chips to China. Trump also hinted that it might approve the export of Blackwell versions with performance cuts of 30% to 50%, but refused to sell the original top-level models to maintain the United States 'technological leadership in the AI field. The move sparked controversy in Washington, with critics worried that China could still use downsized chips to accumulate enough computing power to develop AI supercomputing.

• Export licensing and sharing mechanism
  辉达与超微必须缴15%相关中国销售营收给美政府，此类收费模式在美对企政策中极为罕见。

• H20 wafer positioning and recovery outlet
  H20属中国特供降速版，与H100、H200架构相关；川普称其「过时」，美方认为出口不损国安。

• Blackwell Export Negotiations
  川普考虑允许降规30%-50%的Blackwell对中出口，但维持高规版五年内不对中开放。

• Doubts about national security and technology competition
  专家警告，即使降规，中方仍可藉大量采购打造领先级AI算力，可能威胁美国技术优势。

• China's official position
  中外交部批评美方利用科技与贸易手段「恶意打压」，重申反对限制性晶片出口措施。

stocks

Micron raises financial forecast, AI demand drives up high-frequency and wide-bandwidth memory market

Micron Technology (MU) raised its revenue and profit forecasts for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, benefiting from strong demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and DRAM in artificial intelligence infrastructure. The company expects revenue for the quarter to reach US$11.2 billion (± 100 million), higher than previous estimates of US$10.7 billion (± 300 million), and adjusted earnings per share is forecast to be US$2.85 (±0.07), a significant increase from the original forecast of US$2.50 (±0.15). Micron also revised up its gross margin forecast from 42%(±1%) to 44.5%(±0.5%), reflecting rising prices and tight supply. The news sent the stock price up about 3%.

• Reasons for revised financial surveys
  AI资料中心扩张带动HBM与DRAM需求，加上供应紧张，提升售价与毛利率。

• market trends
  eMarketer 指出，AI需求使记忆体厂商由过去低毛利转向具议价能力；SK海力士预估AI专用记忆体市场至2030年年增30%。

• Micron Investment Plan
  6月宣布在美国追加300亿美元投资，总承诺达2,000亿美元，以扩产并符合美国制造条件，减少关税冲击。

• potential risks
  美国对部分进口晶片加征100%关税可能影响需求，但在美生产或有承诺者不受影响。

• stock market reaction
  预测上修与AI需求乐观情绪推动股价上涨约3%，凸显投资人对AI记忆体成长前景的信心。

Trump changed his attitude sharply, praising Intel CEO Chen Liwu as a "success story"

US President Donald Trump praised Intel's (INTC) achievements after meeting with its CEO Chen Liwu, calling his rise an "amazing success story", in sharp contrast to his tough stance a few days ago demanding his "immediate resignation". Chen Liwu, who took over as Intel CEO in March, has announced layoffs and reduced some investment plans in Europe and the United States in the face of the dual challenges of lagging AI market and losses in foundry business. The meeting may be interpreted by the market to improve high-level relations and discuss competitive strategies for the US semiconductor industry.

• Background of attitude change
  上周川普因质疑陈立武与中国关联，公开要求其辞职；本周会晤后改为正面评价，并安排后续交流。

• Intel's current situation and challenges
  公司在AI晶片市场落后于辉达 (NVDA)，且代工业务持续亏损，已取消德国与波兰新厂计划并放缓美国俄亥俄州进度。

• Leadership style and reform plan
  陈立武承认转型需时间与耐心，正专注修复营运结构并精简成本。

• Government intervention in semiconductor policy
  川普近期积极干预晶片产业，包括要求辉达与超微 (AMD) 向美政府缴交15%中国销售分成以换取出口许可。

• market reaction
  英特尔股价在消息公布后延长交易时段上涨2%，今年以来累计上涨3%，低于标普500的8.4%涨幅。