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[Intraday Analysis of U.S. Stocks] Cooling inflation combined with bullish earnings boosted risk appetite (2025.10.25)

Cooling inflation and favorable earnings reports pushed up U.S. stocks to another intraday high, with semiconductors and large technologies leading the gains; Ford surged and Tesla weakened. U.S. bond yields are flat, VIX is lower, funds are flowing back into AI and technology, and prosperity and consumption signals are divided.

Cooling inflation combined with bullish financial results drives up risk appetite

U.S. stocks rose across the board and hit a new high during the session, as investors digested milder than expected inflation data and good corporate earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was provisionally reported at 47,278.84, up 1.16%; the S & P 500 Index was provisionally reported at 6,802.77, up 0.95%; the Nasdaq Index was provisionally reported at 23,235.38, up 1.28%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was provisionally reported at 7,002.53, up 2.27%. Disk risk appetite has rebounded, with semiconductors and large technologies leading the gains most clearly.

The core momentum comes from lower-than-expected inflation data

The latest released consumer price index shows an annual increase of about 3% and a monthly increase of 0.3%; the core CPI increases of about 3% year-on-year and a monthly increase of 0.2%, both of which are milder than market expectations. After the data came out, the index's rally widened, benefiting interest-rate sensitive growth stocks. The 10-year U.S. bond yield was almost flat during the session, the VIX panic index fell, and the market's willingness to take risks warmed up.

Differences between economic expansion signals and consumer confidence coexist

S&P Global's comprehensive PMI rose to 54.8, and the manufacturing and service industries simultaneously rebounded to expansion ranges, indicating that corporate activity maintained momentum. However, the Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 53.6, and the five-year inflation forecast rose to 3.9%, reflecting that the household sector is still cautious about prices and economic prospects, creating short-term differences in messages.

Funds have obviously returned to the technology and semiconductor community

Semiconductor and AI concepts led the gains, with the fee index rising more than 2%. Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) surged sharply after market reports pointed out that International Business Machines(IBM) can execute specific quantum computing algorithms on ultra-microchips. Nvidia(NVDA) rose about 1.56% intraday, Microsoft(MSFT) rose 0.62%, Apple(Apple, AAPL) rose 1.55%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) strengthened 3.22%, driving large technology rights to increase the index.

Differences in the performance of large-scale weights and theme stocks

In addition to the strengthening of Fuida, Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet among the seven heroes, Meta Platforms(Facebook, META) rose 0.46% intraday, Amazon(Amazon, AMZN) rose 1.70%, and Tesla(Tesla, TSLA) fell 3.08% against the trend, indicating that capital preferences under the stock rotation are more focused on cloud and AI-benefiting stocks.

Ford leads the index and drives the auto chain

Ford Motor(Ford Motor, F) surged 11.93% in intraday trading, becoming the best performer among the S & P 500 components, due to better-than-expected revenue and profits last quarter and strong demand from its commercial and fleet businesses. The trading volume of the stock increased significantly, driving stocks in the automobile and industrial chains to recover.

Consumer stocks diverge in trends, putting pressure on sports and leisure

Deckers Outdoor(DECK) fell 12.12% intraday. The company's outlook for the future was more conservative than expected, and warned that tariffs and selling prices were too high to slow down consumer momentum, becoming the main drag on the market. Consumer electronics and high-end brands diverged in performance, and funds shifted to items with higher fundamental visibility.

The encrypted asset chain is supported by securities firms and the mood is warming up

Coinbase Global(Coinbase, COIN) is higher after receiving an upgrade from JPMorgan Chase, and brokers are optimistic about its new growth sources and comparative advantages. The intraday performance of major cryptocurrencies was divided, but buying sentiment on trading platforms and surrounding concept stocks stabilized, helping to repair market sentiment after a previous decline.

Raw materials and precious metals perform differently

Newmont(Newmont Mining, NEM) was lower during the session as the market focused on production uncertainty, despite the better-than-expected earnings from the previous quarter. Albemarle(ALB) rose 9.28%, driving some battery chemical and material chains back to temperature. In the futures market, oil prices rose and gold prices fell, reflecting the relative strength of risky assets and changes in the trend of the US dollar.

Industrial and tariff sensitive groups remain under pressure

Illinois Tool Works(Illinois Industries, ITW) fell intraday, as the company's revenue fell short of expectations and retracted its full-year guidance, mentioning that tariff-related supply chain problems may persist. VeriSign(VRSN) fell 9.21%, showing divisions within the software and Internet services community.

Volume amplification verifies upward momentum

The overall trading volume expanded simultaneously. Individual stocks such as Ford, Ultramicro and International Business Machines surged upward, with intraday buying leading, and short-term price chasing being relatively positive. The volume-price structure of Nasdaq and Fairfax is healthy, providing support for the index to maintain high-end volatility.

Changes in interest rates and foreign exchange markets are more neutral to risky assets

The yield rate on the 10-year U.S. bond remained unchanged during the session, maintaining a relatively friendly mix of stocks and bonds. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the British pound and the Japanese yen and weakened against the euro. Index futures and spot futures pushed up in the same direction, indicating that the continuity of buying is still in place, providing external momentum for intraday highs.

Policy and geopolitical noise have limited impact on the market

The market has also noticed Trump's latest comments on the Canadian negotiations and the noise of the international situation. However, amid the cooling of inflation data and the overall better-than-expected hedging of corporate earnings, the impact on major indices has been limited, and the funding side still focuses on fundamentals and interest rate expectations.

Follow-up focus returns to the Federal Reserve Conference and the end of the financial report

With the combination of a moderate inflation path and moderate economic momentum, the market will pay attention to the Fed's subsequent meetings on the interest rate path and the adjustment of full-year guidance at the end of corporate earnings reports. Overall, growth and AI-related weight stocks continue to be the main axis of the market, while cyclical and consumer stocks perform separately based on news.

Disk summary highlights structural strength

Current intraday signals show that the long structure is concentrated in semiconductors and large-scale technologies, and the divergence between industrial and consumer stocks has widened. As long as the interest rate side remains moderate and the earnings drive does not weaken significantly, the probability of high-end index consolidation increases, and fund rotation will become the focus of short-term observation.

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