[Pre-market U.S. Stocks] Technology and policy are intertwined, futures rebound but volatility heats up (2025.09.03)

Futures stabilized, technology stocks led the gains and drove sentiment to warmer, U.S. stocks were expected to open higher, and the main axis of the market fell on the progress of large-scale science and technology supervision and uncertainty in trade policies. Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 0.7%, S & P 500 futures rose about 0.5%, and Dow Jones futures were nearly flat. After the market weakened due to tariff disputes on the previous trading day, funds returned to technology equity before the market, but the staggered signals of rising bond yields and falling oil prices showed that the volatility was still high.

The signals on the funding side are divided. The upward trend of yield rates coincides with the reclining of oil prices. The upward trend of 10-year U.S. bond yields is consistent with the upward trend of global interest rates with the 30-year yield rate approaching 5%. Gold prices continue to rise and Bitcoin strengthens, reflecting that safe-haven and risky assets are receiving attention simultaneously. On the energy front, oil prices fell by about 2%, which is expected to relieve short-term pressure on transportation and some consumer stocks, but also reflects concerns about demand.

Policy uncertainty is heating up, tariff issues continue to affect interest rates and risk appetite, and political risks resurface after Labor Day in the United States. Trump said he had applied to the Supreme Court to speed up the trial in an attempt to overturn the appeals court's rulings that he had violated many of his tariffs. Market interpretation: If tariff revenue is limited, fiscal deficit pressure and long-term interest rate risk premiums may rise. The rise in U.S. bond yields and the decline in stock markets in the previous year are related to this.

Global market conditions were under pressure, and the weakness of Asian and European stocks deepened the risk intersection. The European stock Stoxx 600 index fell 1.5%, its worst performance in nearly a month; the British 30-year gilt yield rose to 5.709%, its high since 1998. The pound fell by about 1.5% against the US dollar. Asian stocks mostly fell, and Australia's second-quarter economic growth was better than expected but failed to boost the stock market, indicating that interest rates and policy factors outweighed the fundamentals.

Alphabet Lido released, Chrome is free of spin-offs but limited cooperation by default, and Google's parent company Alphabet (GOOGL) jumped about 6% in pre-market. The federal judge ruled that no one would require the sale of Chrome, excluding the most severe penalties, and also imposed restrictions on preload and preset arrangements to avoid exclusivity that harmed competition. The ruling reduces the risk of large-scale technologies facing structural sanctions and helps stabilize the evaluation sentiment of technology equity stocks.

The semiconductor supply chain is under review, and the equipment transfer of TSMC Nanjing Plant must be approved on a case-by-case basis. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC, TSM) stated that the United States will terminate the "specific end-user" qualification of the Nanjing plant on December 31, and subsequent equipment delivery will require individual approval; South Korean factories Samsung and SK Hynix will also be subject to the same adjustment. TSMC's U.S. ADR rose slightly by about 1% before the market, as investors focused on the impact on the expansion pace of mature processes and the shipment process of equipment manufacturers.

Good news came from retail outlets that Macy's significantly better than expectations and revised its full-year outlook. Macy's(M) rose nearly 13% in pre-market trading. Adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter were US$0.41, much higher than market expectations of US$0.18; same-store sales increased 0.8% year-on-year, better than the expected 0.26% decline. After a downward revision in the previous quarter, the company once again raised its full-year sales and adjusted EPS range this season, showing an improvement in the pace of inventory and discounts.

The AI talent battle continues, Meta has recruited senior researchers from Apple, and Meta Platforms(Meta Platform, META) continues to strengthen talent. Reports indicate that Jian Zhang, head of AI in Apple's robotics field, has joined Meta Robotics Studio, and several core researchers have left Apple's large internal language model team. Apple(Apple, AAPL)'s talent flow has attracted continued attention to the pace and productization progress of its generative AI.

The consumer goods giant has adjusted its landscape. Kraft Heinz plans to split into two companies. Kraft Heinz(KHC) is expected to complete the split in the second half of 2026. Berkshire CEO Buffett expressed disappointment; the market will pay attention to whether capital allocation and brand focus after the split will improve valuation discounts. In Europe, Nestlé's personnel turnover triggered analysts to observe the continuity of strategy. Food and beverage stocks as a whole faced the dual test of coaching changes and inflation costs.

Precious metals continue to strengthen, and the high gold price highlights the intersection of risk aversion and inflation. Spot gold prices have risen nearly 35% year-to-date, driven by continued geopolitical risks, inflationary stickiness and market fluctuations. Some institutions pointed out that for the first time since 1996, the amount of gold held by central banks in various countries exceeded the position of U.S. debt, and institutional buying from China and India has accumulated. The strength of gold prices and the strength of the US dollar parallel, indicating that the defensive demand for asset allocation is on the rise.

Industry dynamics are diverse, Tesla focuses on the vision of robots and autonomous driving, and Tesla CEO Musk talks about Optimus's long-term value proposition; against the background of slowing sales and intensified competition for self-driving testing, the capital market pays more attention to the progress of R & D and the verifiability of mass production schedules. The R & D and supervision path of large-scale technologies continues to be the source of fluctuations in equity stocks.

The pre-market focus was on comprehensive consolidation, and the opening session focused on the linkage between technology weights and profit margins. Alphabet's profit drove technology sentiment. TSMC's ADR and semiconductor chains attracted attention due to equipment approval themes. Macy's strong financial report injected support into retail stocks. Futures indicators suggest a large start, but uncertainties related to tariffs and high futures yields may still amplify intraday fluctuations; the funding gap between weaker oil prices and higher gold prices reminds investors to pay attention to sector rotation and the relative strength of defensive assets.