[Pre-market U.S. Stocks] Inflation data is ahead, futures are high, but interest rates and oil prices are restrained (2025.09.08)

The tone is set at the beginning, with inflation and interest rate cuts leading risk sentiment

On Monday evening in Taiwan time, the three major futures indexes of U.S. stocks were on the high side. Investors focused on the August CPI and PPI released this week to assess the Fed's September interest rate cut. A weak jobs report in the previous trading day boosted easing expectations, but the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose slightly and oil prices rose by about 2%, constraining risk appetite. In terms of pre-market individual stocks, the S&P 500 quarterly correction triggered a component effect. Robinhood Markets(HOOD) and AppLovin(Ipravin, APP) surged, EchoStar(SATS) was boosted by its spectrum deal with SpaceX, and the overall sentiment in technology and communications services stocks was boosted.

There are too many futures indexes, and the trend of commodity and bond interest rates is different

As of Monday, Taiwan time, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures were up about 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, while Dow Jones futures were up slightly by about 0.2%. The 10-year U.S. bond yield rose slightly, reflecting that the market is still concerned about inflationary stickiness while betting on interest rate cuts. Oil futures rose by about 2%, gold futures did not change much, Bitcoin stood firm at around US$112,000, and the performance of risky assets showed divergence. The weekly line of the major index closed red last week, but finally softened on Friday, indicating that the wait-and-see mood before the data was still there.

Employment weakens, chances of interest rate cuts rise

In August, only 22,000 new non-agricultural jobs were added, far below the market expectation of about 75,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.2% to 4.3%, mainly due to the expansion of labor participation rather than the worsening of layoffs. Futures market According to CME FedWatch, there is a high chance of a rate cut of at least 1 yard in September, and a small chance of a 2 yard option appears. Inflation data has become a key verification. If this week's PPI and CPI show that core prices continue to cool, the interest rate path is expected to become clearer; conversely, price disturbances driven by upward energy may limit the short-term easing. Market pricing and bond interest rates are in the same direction, so that opening risk appetite does not expand excessively.

Ingredient effect fermentation, Robinhood and AppLovin are booming before the plate

News of the S & P's quarterly adjustment drove the stock market. Robinhood Markets(Robin Hood, HOOD) and AppLovin(App, APP) will be included in the S&P 500 on September 22, rising about 8% and 9% respectively before the market, increasing trading volume. Engineering and facilities manager Emcor Group(EME) was also included, up about 2% before the market. Historical experience shows that the inclusion of large indexes often attracts passive capital allocation needs and updates of brokerage target prices, and short-term liquidity and valuation issues have become the focus of attention.

Spectrum Asset Liquidation, EchoStar Joins Hands with SpaceX to Promote Direct Connect Mobile Phones

EchoStar(SATS) announced that it would sell its spectrum license to Musk's SpaceX for approximately US$17 billion, up about 20% before the market. The deal includes the introduction of Starlink Direct to Cell services for Boost Mobile users and the subsequent sale of approximately $23 billion in spectrum to AT&T(AT & T) just two weeks ago. The company said the disposal would help respond to the Federal Communications Commission's concerns about its actions and the performance of satellite rights. Asset portfolio optimization and cash flow improvement have become new catalysts for the integration of satellite communications and ground operations.

Policy uncertainty is heating up, tariff disputes may trigger huge tax rebates

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that if the Supreme Court upholds the lower court's ruling that import tariffs exceeded their authority during the Trump era, the Treasury Department may need to refund half of the tariffs already imposed, amounting to approximately US$750 billion to US$1 trillion, putting pressure on treasury reserves. The White House last week asked the Supreme Court to speed up the trial. Uncertainty about the tariff outlook, compounded by electoral and fiscal issues, may become a risk parameter for corporate capital expenditures and cross-border supply chain decisions.

Supply chain supervision adjustment, US discusses annual export license for Korean factories to China

Bloomberg reported that the U.S. Department of Commerce is studying the implementation of the annual approved "site license" design for chip manufacturing supplies from South Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix's factories in China. The current V.E.U. certification is expected to expire at the end of 2025. The move is intended to strike a balance between controlling technology spillovers and maintaining supply stability. Taiwan's semiconductor industry is also receiving attention. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSMC, TSM) said last week that the United States withdrew its authorization to ship key manufacturing equipment at a base in China, causing interference with base operations. If the annual license is formed, it will have reference significance for the rhythm management of memory and surrounding supply chains, but the overall regulatory flexibility still depends on the final details.

International stock exchange is pulse, Japan leads Asia's gains while mainland stocks are stable

Asian stocks mostly rose in early trading. The Japanese stock market strengthened after Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation as prime minister, with premium financial and technology stocks leading the gains. In terms of mainland stocks, the annual growth in exports fell short of expectations, but the CSI 300 rose moderately, with domestic demand and policy themes supporting sentiment. European stocks were more neutral in pre-market sentiment, and investors were also waiting for U.S. inflation readings. The US dollar index is stable and the energy rebound adds uncertainty to the trajectory of global inflation.

Data comes first, market focus returns to inflation and Federal Reserve Commission communication

Against the backdrop of cooling employment, investors are paying attention to the details of core service prices, rent and medical costs in CPI and PPI this week, as well as the disturbance of energy recovery to monthly growth. If the data is soft and officials maintain a symmetrical risk statement, the pace of interest rate cuts will be more easily digested by the market; if the data is sticky or service inflation rises again, the repricing of interest rate endpoints and interest rate cuts may trigger fluctuations in interest-sensitive assets. In the early period of the session, the index points were too many, but the dual traction of interest rates and oil prices made the intensity after the opening still determined by the position adjustment before the data and the continuity of the constituent stock theme.

Pre-market focus, composition adjustment and trading theme intertwined

The inclusion of S&P 500 and satellite communications transactions provides clear pre-market themes, and the volume and energy may be concentrated on newly included and benefiting stocks from major transactions. Before watching inflation, funds switched between large-scale weights and event-driven stocks. Bond interest rate trends and energy price endurance are the two major variables that affect the intraday rotation of stocks. Overall, the first trading day of the data week started with a large margin, but continuity still depends on mutual verification of inflation readings and Fed messages.