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[Intraday Analysis of U.S. Stocks] Expectations to cut interest rates outweigh concerns about inflation. U.S. stocks continued to hit new highs during the session. (2025.09.12)

Expectations of interest rate cuts overshadowed concerns about inflation, and U.S. stocks hit a new high during the session; medical insurance and semiconductors led the gains, while software and streaming weakened. CPI is hot and initial unemployment benefits are rising. We will focus on the ADBE and KR financial reports and the path of the Federal Reserve Commission at night.

Expectations to cut interest rates outweigh concerns about inflation. U.S. stocks continued to hit new highs during the session.

Under the staggered signals of inflation data slightly higher than expectations and initial unemployment benefits rising, the market interpretation is biased towards the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this month. The four major indices rose simultaneously and hit a historical intraday high. Capital risk appetite continued, and the bet on multiple interest rate cuts during the year was further consolidated.

The four major indices continue to achieve high momentum.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was temporarily at 46,065.15 points, up 1.26%; the S & P 500 Index was temporarily at 6,581.15 points, up 0.75%; the Nasdaq Composite Index was temporarily at 22,027.81 points, up 0.65%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was temporarily at 6,006.35 points, up 0.81%. The atmosphere of small-cap stocks has warmed up simultaneously, with the Russell 2000 Index temporarily trading at 2,402.52 points, not far from its historical high.

Health insurance and semiconductors led gains in software and streaming pressure.

The medical insurance community benefited from the positive results of individual stocks, and the chip and design tool chains strengthened simultaneously. In contrast, companies that surged sharply in the previous trading day saw profit-taking, cloud and software fell back, and streaming media weakened due to personnel news. The market showed obvious rotation.

Intraday trading was active and the divergence between ups and downs intensified.

Centene(CNC) surged 11.8% in intraday trading, mainly because it reiterated its full-year outlook and exceeded market expectations. Synopsys(SNPS) rose 10.31%, Micron Technology(MU) rose 9.43%, and market attention on AI and memory demand pushed up order and quotation momentum. Oracle(Oracle, ORCL) fell 5.38%, reflecting the settlement of funds after a strong surge in the previous day. Netflix(NFLX) fell 3.54% as personnel changes over the departure of its chief product chief weighed on stock performance.

Large-scale technology trends diverge Tesla led the gains.

Nvidia(NVDA) was trading at US$177.1, down 0.12%;Tesla (Tesla, TSLA) reported US$364.07, up 4.68%;Apple(Apple, AAPL) reported US$229.45, up 1.17%;Meta Platforms(Facebook, META) reported US$753.02, up 0.14%;Microsoft(MSFT) reported US$500.21, down 0.03%; Alphabet(Google parent company, GOOGL) reported $240.27, up 0.30%;Amazon(Amazon, AMZN) reported $231.28, up 0.41%. Differences in equity stocks have not changed the upward structure of the broader market, with automobiles and semiconductors relatively strong.

The CPI is hotter than expected and the core is in line with expectations.

The U.S. CPI increased by 0.4% monthly and 2.9% year-on-year, which was higher than the original market forecast. Among them, energy increased by 0.7% monthly, food increased by 0.5% monthly, and living costs increased by 0.4% monthly. The core CPI increased by 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annual, which was roughly in line with expectations. The hopes of cooling inflation brought about by the previous unexpected weakening of PPI were partially offset. However, the impact of tariff factors was limited that month, and the market's interpretation of the inflation trend still focused on the stability of core items.

Initial unemployment benefits rose to a four-year high, and signs of economic cooling increased.

The latest number of people receiving initial unemployment benefits was 263,000, a four-year high, raising the four-week average to 240,500, and the number of people receiving continued unemployment benefits remained at 1.939 million. The coexistence of slowing employment momentum and inflation resilience has strengthened market expectations that the Fed will tend to cut interest rates first as the economy slows down.

The market fully digested this month's interest rate cut and bet three times during the year.

Interest rate futures show a very high chance of a 1-yard interest rate cut this month, and a total of three interest rate cuts during the year have been roughly reflected in prices. Investors interpret that cooling growth takes precedence over the risk of inflation and rebound, supporting the stock market to maintain a long position amidst data noise.

Oracle retaking and net-flying became the focus of the game.

Oracle gave up some of its gains after previously releasing a strong revenue outlook and soaring stock price, becoming one of the main reasons dragging down software stocks. Netflix's personnel changes triggered a re-evaluation of the market's product and strategic rhythm, suppressing the performance of stream-related targets in the short term.

Aviation and pharmaceutical personnel trends have attracted attention.

Delta Air Lines(DAL) reiterated its full-year profit target and narrowed its revenue range. The combined CPI showed that ticket prices increased by 5% year-on-year, echoing the resilience of travel demand. News that Novo Nordisk(Novo Nordisk, NVO) promotes rework and layoffs has also attracted market attention, showing that the trade-off between efficiency and growth among large pharmaceuticals continues.

Bond markets strengthened, the dollar weakened, crude oil and gold fell back.

The 10-year U.S. bond yield fell, providing support for the valuation of growth stocks; the U.S. dollar weakened against the euro, pound and yen, reflecting the convergence of interest rates amid rising expectations of interest rate cuts; oil and gold futures fell intraday, and most major cryptocurrencies rose., the overall risk asset atmosphere was stable.

The integration of earnings and information before the Fed meeting will drive the pace.

In the evening, corporate financial reports such as Adobe(ADBE) and The Kroger Company(Kroger, KR) will provide clues on consumer and corporate IT spending. The market is also waiting for the Fed meeting and dot map updates to clarify the path for subsequent interest rate cuts. The short-term market trend is still dominated by the interleaving of data and corporate information, and funds continue to rotate between large weights and news-stimulated theme stocks.

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