According to Internet reports, Matrixport released a weekly report saying that Powell sent a hawkish signal at the FOMC meeting on June 18, 2025, but within a week the overall tone of the Federal Reserve changed significantly, and many directors successively issued loose arguments. Powell also appeared more conciliatory at congressional hearings this week. The turn may have been influenced by political pressure. Shortly after the meeting, President Trump publicly criticized the Fed's tightening stance, forcing the Fed to quickly revise its external language. Inflation has fallen back to 2.38%, just one step away from the Fed's 2% target, and the basis for continuing to remain inactive is gradually weakening. Although Powell and some economists have warned that tariffs may push inflation back above 3%, they have so far failed to materialize. The unemployment rate has also remained at 4.2% for nearly 12 consecutive months, contrary to previous expectations of weakening employment. Considering that corporate buybacks were mostly suspended in July, the earnings season may become one of the key variables dominating market sentiment. After U.S. military airstrikes on Iran earlier this week, Bitcoin once dipped to its 21-week moving average (US$98,532), a level that is both a key technical support level and a watershed for long-short periods. If prices fail to return above the moving average in time, the market may face the risk of a summer adjustment. Maintaining the benchmark of "seasonal range volatility" and expecting the Fed's turnaround tone to still provide moderate upward support for Bitcoin. If the subsequent interest rate cut signal is clearer, the risk-return ratio of the bargain-hunting layout is expected to further increase.