[U.S. stocks before the market] Data supported the market but interest rate cut expectations cooled down, futures consolidated and waited on tariff risks (2025.09.29)

Conclusion comes first, risk sentiment is supported by solid data but interest rate imagination is limited

Before Monday's trading in Taiwan time, U.S. stock futures did not change much. Investors digested inflation data in line with expectations and signals of strong economic momentum, while assessing the uncertainty brought by the new round of tariffs. Last Friday, the three major indices closed higher but closed lower throughout the week. The S & P 500 has still risen by about 2.84% so far this month and is expected to break the common fallback curse in September. However, strong growth suppresses expectations at the time of interest rate cuts, and the market tends to adopt more prudent position control at the end of the month.

Inflation is neither surprised nor happy, but strong growth limits the space for policy easing

The latest inflation reading is generally in line with market expectations and should relieve pressure. However, the annualized GDP growth in the second quarter of approximately 3.8% and solid initial unemployment benefits and job market data highlight the resilience of domestic demand. The combination of messages that the risk of economic overheating is not high but not weak makes the Fed's interest rate cut more likely to delay, and funds have thus become restrained on highly valued assets. The logic that good news may not be entirely good news for the stock market has become the mainstream in the short term.

The key to interest rate communication remains unsolved, and more clues are still needed on the path of the Federal Reserve Commission.

Against the background of inflation in line with expectations and growth resilience, the market is focusing on whether follow-up official talks will send a signal of greater confidence in price cooling. Without a clear dovish turning point, funds may continue to price high interest rates for longer, suppress room for valuation expansion of growth stocks, and increase preferences for profit visibility and cash flow quality.

Tariff variables rise again, Trump's new round of measures adds policy noise

Trump announced a new round of broad tariffs last week, covering items such as furniture, adding to the already sensitive risk sentiment. Although the market once digested the news last Friday, the weekly trend revealed a cautious return. If consumption and intermediate wealth are further expanded in the future, the cost structures and inventory policies of industries with high dependence on retail, home furnishing and imports will need to be re-evaluated. The flexibility of companies in financial testing and pricing strategies will become the key to stock price resilience.

Futures consolidation has not changed, and structural changes at the end of the month have affected the opening tone.

Early Monday morning in Taiwan time, the three major futures indices of U.S. stocks fluctuated slightly. Due to technical factors such as month-end position adjustments and the closing of the third quarter, the market tended to wait for new catalysts. Although it rebounded simultaneously last Friday, it still closed lower throughout the week, reflecting that investors 'risk premiums for interest rates and policy changes have not yet subsided. While the monthly line is still strong, the intraday trend may be more dominated by volume, energy and ethnic rotation.

International stock markets are moderately positive, with most Asia rising but Japan and Taiwan under pressure

The tone of overseas stock markets was relatively stable. European stocks closed red last Friday. In Asia, Hong Kong, China and South Korea mainly moved higher, while Japan and Taiwan retreated. China's stock market has risen significantly this year. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 have risen by about 16% so far since the beginning of the year, approaching a new high of more than three years. AI promotion, chip self-sufficiency policies and liquidity support have boosted risk appetite, but discussions on whether to turn to a bubble have heated up and regional capital rotation has accelerated.

The US dollar and commodities are intertwined, and industrial costs and quotation elasticity are tested

While the interest rate path is unclear, the trend of the US dollar affects the conversion effect between export-oriented enterprises and transnational profits. Volatility in oil and gold prices is still driven by geopolitical conditions and demand expectations, and is highly sensitive to costs in aviation, transportation and chemicals. Risk aversion is currently moderate, and allocation pays more attention to the bargaining power of enterprises and the effectiveness of inventory management. Short-term evaluation will be mainly driven by news.

AI capital expenditures continue to expand, infrastructure chain maintains focus

The expansion of generative AI has not changed. OpenAI has deepened cooperation with many partners, involving cloud, computing power and Netcom supply chain. Among the cooperation list, Oracle(ORCL) and Broadcom(AVGO) have attracted market attention due to their layout related to capital communications and accelerators. The disclosure of the industry chain's visibility of long-term contracts and capital expenditures continues to become the key to assessing fundamental resilience. Even if discussions about high valuations heat up, demand visibility still gives AI themes relative pricing power.

Intel's gains are fierce, and its technical aspects are overheating and become the focus of short-term discussions

Intel(INTC) rose more than 20% last week, and its year-to-date increase is nearly 80%. It is listed as one of the overheated stocks in the short term. The fundamental market continues to pay attention to the advancement of process nodes, OEM order taking and PC cycle repair. The strength of turnover and consolidation after the rapid increase in technology will affect the relative performance of the semiconductor community. The rotation of funds within the chip chain has an impact on the exponential contribution after the opening of the market cannot be underestimated.

The trend of platform supervision changes, and the uncertainty of TikTok has eased slightly

U.S. Vice President JD Vance expressed optimism about the spin-off of TikTok and the control of U.S. data security, which will help ease regulatory suspense on the platform. If the policy path is clearer, the investment visibility of digital advertising and content ecosystems is expected to increase, but implementation details and judicial challenges still need to be observed. Compliance costs and product adjustment timing of relevant large platforms are the focus of subsequent evaluations.

The global flow of talent reshapes, H-1B fee increases may catalyze AI settlement in the Gulf

As the cost of migrant worker visas in the United States rises, Gulf countries are actively building AI hubs, which is becoming more attractive to multinational high-level technical talents. In the medium to long term, the regional dispersion of R & D energy may affect supply chain location and cloud capital expenditure allocation. The adjustment of U.S. stock companies 'layout in global human resources and data centers will become an important observation indicator for the French Conference.

Valuation controversy heats up, and Buffett's high indicator triggers a review of risk taking

The so-called Buffett indicator, the ratio of the total market value of U.S. stocks to GDP, hit a record high, once again triggering discussions about valuation expansion. This indicator is not a time-point tool, but in the context of growth resilience and delayed interest rate cuts, the market's tolerance for highly valued assets declines, the screening logic of fundamentals and cash flow quality is amplified, and the probability of positive interest passivation increases.

At the end of the month, offense and defense are taking shape, and quantity, energy and stock rotation will dominate the intraday rhythm.

Under the intersection of macro and policy signals, pre-market pricing is biased towards wait-and-see. After the opening, pay attention to whether large-scale technologies continue to drive, and the growth rate of small and medium-sized stocks. Tariff-related retail durable goods, home furnishing and import-intensive industries are highly sensitive to news;AI and cloud infrastructure chains continue to be popularity indicators. If the volume and energy are not amplified simultaneously, the index performance may be limited by minority stocks, and funds are more likely to change structural hands within strong groups.

Overall assessment, the data supports that the monthly line of U.S. stocks remains flexible, but interest rates suppress valuation expansion

The overall data temporarily dispelled doubts about hard landing, but simultaneously reduced the imagination of interest rate cuts. In conjunction with tariff and regulatory event-related disturbances, the market tended to focus on steady changes of hands and theme rotation at the end of the month. The performance of the S & P 500 remains resilient this month. If risk events do not deteriorate, structural buying at the end of the quarter is expected to provide downward support. However, uncertainty in valuation and policies means that upward momentum requires clearer fundamentals and catalytic cooperation.