[U.S. stocks before the market], inflation readings are set, interest rate cuts are expected, and the market waits and sees the opening (2025.09.26)

Wait and see inflation data, futures move moderately higher

U.S. stock futures rebounded slightly ahead of key inflation readings, amid cautious market sentiment. Dow Jones futures rose about 0.2%, while the S & P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each rose about 0.1%. The three major indices fell for three consecutive days after hitting highs, and temporarily showed a retracement pattern this week. The yield rate on the 10-year U.S. bond remained stable at 4.17%, and funds remained in a tug of war between stocks and bonds. Crypto assets weakened, with Bitcoin falling below $109,000 to a one-month low; gold futures hovering around about $3,800 per ounce.

PCE's focus before the opening of the market, inflation resilience drives the pace of interest rate cuts

The market's attention is focused on the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE). Economists generally predict that the annual growth rate will rise slightly to 2.7% in August, and the core PCE annual growth rate will remain at 2.9%, still higher than the Federal Reserve target. Data is scheduled to be released at 8:30 pm Taiwan time. The recent sharp upward revision of GDP growth in the second quarter shows that domestic demand and corporate activity are resilient, further increasing the importance of PCE readings. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week for the first time this year and hinted that there will be room for subsequent easing if the labor market weakens. However, if inflation is higher than expected, the market's pricing for further interest rate cuts may cool down.

New tariff policies spread, and industrial chain reactions become variables on the market

U.S. President Trump announced additional tariffs on a number of items starting from October 1, including a 100% tariff on imports of drugs that have not been built in the United States, and is limited to "original or patented" drugs. Construction of U.S. production lines have been launched. Exemption is granted; a 50% tariff is imposed on products related to kitchen utensils, cabinets and bathroom sinks, and a 25% tariff is imposed on heavy trucks. The news triggered a stress test to assess cost structure and selling price transmission in the medical health and consumer durables supply chain. Before the market, individual stocks were divided, with Eli Lilly(Lilly, LLY) up about 2%, Novo Nordisk(Novo Nordisk, NVO) down about 1%, and furniture access and home decoration related stocks were generally under pressure.

TikTok U.S. Holdings is formed, Oracle's role is attracting attention again

The White House signed an executive order to facilitate the inclusion of TikTok's U.S. business into the U.S. shareholding structure to avoid the implementation of the ban. The newly formed U.S. holding team includes media company Rupert Murdoch, Dell Technologies CEO Michael Dell and Oracle founder Larry Ellison; ByteDance will provide the algorithm to the holding joint venture in the form of copy and authorized lease, and Oracle will supervise the recommendation system. Vice President J.D. Vance said the company was valued at approximately $14 billion, which was below some previous market expectations. Oracle's share price rose slightly before the market, and technology policy risk issues were alleviated in the short term.

Intel continues to bomb, strategic investment rumors boost chip sentiment

Intel(Intel, INTC) continued to gain about 4% in early trading, extending its strength this week. It has been rumored that Apple(AAPL) is considering participating in investment. Following Nvidia(NVDA)'s announcement of a US$5 billion stake last week, external strategic funds have become a key catalyst to boost fundamental imagination. Intel's cumulative increase this year is close to 70%, but it is still below the 2021 high. The Visible Alpha compilation shows that most analysts maintain a "neutral" rating, with the overall target price at US$26, a discount of about 25% to Thursday's closing price, reflecting the market's cautious evaluation of the transformation progress and capital efficiency. The mood of the chip community has been driven, but the implementation of fundamentals still needs to be verified by the visibility of subsequent orders.

Policies and central bank movements are intertwined, and market risk appetite is suppressed

In addition to tariff and industrial policy changes, issues of Fed independence have also attracted attention. According to court documents, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook's legal team filed an opinion with the Supreme Court, arguing that Trump's interference in the central bank's personnel and authority could undermine independence. Former officials agreed with academic circles in support, indicating that policy uncertainty is growing. For the capital market, the alternating effects of forward-looking guidance on monetary policy and administrative orders tend to amplify fluctuations during the data release window.

After three consecutive losses, U.S. stocks sorted out, and European stocks retreated simultaneously.

The main U.S. stock index continued to fall on Thursday and fell for three consecutive days. Technology equity stocks were on the soft side. Among them, Oracle's 5.6% drop became the focus of drag. The 10-year U.S. bond yield once hit 4.2%, and then fell back. Europe's Stoxx 600 index fell 0.66%, and the overall sentiment of risky assets tended to be conservative, but some fundamental highlights still showed divergent performance, indicating that funds continue to be sewed between defensive stocks and structural growth themes.

Differences in trends between raw materials and crypto assets, funds seek safe haven

Gold prices are close to recent highs, reflecting the need for safe-haven amid the triple uncertainties of inflation, policy and geopolitical risks; Bitcoin continues to fall to a one-month low, indicating that risk appetite has cooled. Energy stocks were relatively strong in the early stage, but short-term volatility was high before global demand momentum and output adjustment signals were clear. Differences in cross-asset trends constitute a key background for the stock rotation and valuation discount rates after the opening.

The focus of pre-market observation converges, and the data results influence the rhythm of the day.

The core of today's trading rhythm is still whether PCE is higher than expected. If inflation resilience is obvious, the market's assumptions on the extent and pace of interest rate cuts during the year may need to be recalibrated; on the contrary, if core price pressure continues to fall, it will support the stability of risky assets at high levels. On the policy front, the details of the tariff list and corporate response strategies, the implementation progress of the TikTok structure, and the capital layout of large technology stocks are all catalytic factors that may trigger intraday fluctuations. Overall, valuation and liquidity trade-offs intertwined with data and policies were still the main axis before the opening of U.S. stocks that day.