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[Intraday Analysis of U.S. Stocks] Inflation as expected Dow Jones led the gains, Market focused on new tariffs and cooling confidence (2025.09.27)

Core PCE pushed U.S. stocks to rebound as expected, with Dow Jones leading the gains; cooling consumer confidence suppressed technology. Tariffs and TikTok spin-off supervision are heating up, and chip and industrial stocks have performed relatively strongly.

Inflation data was in line with expectations, driving the index to rebound, but weakening consumer confidence suppressed the trend of technology. All four major intraday indexes rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 46,313.06, up 0.80%; the S & P 500 Index at 6,641.64, up 0.56%; the Nasdaq Composite Index at 22,462.18, up 0.35%; and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index at 6,304.6, up 0.32%. The market responded positively to the core PCE as expected, but the final value of the University of Michigan showed weakening consumer confidence, which limited the expansion of growth stocks.

Large weights and support from industrial stocks have given Dow Jones a lead over other indexes. Among the constituent stocks, Boeing(Boeing, BA) was spurred by regulatory progress, adding momentum to industrial stocks. The return of funds and cyclical themes pushed Dow Jones to lead the way; the S & P 500 rose simultaneously, but due to the relatively conservative influence of technology stocks, the increase was not as good as Dow Jones.

The chip population maintained positive performance but slowed down compared with early trading. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose slightly by 0.32%, with individual stocks divided. Among them, GlobalFoundries(GFS) rose 7.4%, and Intel(INTC) rose 6.03%, indicating that funds prefer chip manufacturing and PC-related chains; In contrast, the overall chip rally converged compared with early trading, and the market became more cautious amid the intersection of data and policy news.

The relative strength of individual stocks related to vehicles and heavy trucks reflects the coexistence of economic and policy variables. PACCAR(PCAR) rose 5.12% intraday, ranking among the top performers, indicating that funds are still willing to allocate to the transportation and commercial vehicle chain. However, the market simultaneously evaluates that heavy truck imports may face the subsequent impact of new tariffs, and the subsequent trend of ethnic groups still depends on the details of policy implementation.

Differences in the trends of the seven major U.S. stocks limit the rebound of the technology index. Vidia fell 0.32% during the session, Apple fell 0.15%, Meta Platforms(Facebook, META) fell 0.62%, while Tesla(Tesla, TSLA) rose 2.25%, Microsoft(Microsoft, MSFT) rose 0.49%, Alphabet (GOOGL) rose 0.80%, and Amazon(Amazon, AMZN) rose 1.01%. The combination of large technologies and short positions made the Nasdaq index's rise relatively moderate.

Necessary consumption and pressure on some e-commerce companies show that terminal demand is still noisy. Costco Wholesale(COST) fell 2.52%, eBay(eBay, EBAY) fell 2.18%, and most consumer-related stocks fell, echoing the cooling of consumer confidence that month, investors 'willingness to accept highly valued consumer stocks turned conservative.

Core PCE dropped slightly as expected and inflation expectations to ease interest rate uncertainty. The core PCE annual increase of 2.9% and monthly increase of 0.2% are in line with market expectations, and the monthly increase of 0.4% in personal income is also within the consensus range; the final value of consumer confidence at the University of Michigan dropped to 55.1, lower than the expected 55.4. Inflation expectations for the year dropped to 4.7% was better than expected, and the long-term inflation forecast of 3.7% was slightly lower than market estimates. The data combination shows that price pressures have not worsened, which helps the market maintain a stable interpretation of the SFC's communication path, but weak confidence reminds that the momentum of the economy still needs to be observed.

Rising news of tariffs and regulations has become important variables affecting funds during the intraday session. President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on imports of branded drugs that have not yet been built in the United States, and imposed new tariffs on heavy trucks and some furniture. They are expected to take effect in the short term. Policy uncertainty has caused the evaluation of the pharmaceutical, transportation and durable goods chains to face rebalancing. At the same time, Trump has signed an executive order agreeing to the spin-off of TikTok's U.S. operations. The valuation of approximately US$14 billion has triggered market discussions on the fairness of the transaction, but it still awaits Beijing's approval and cross-border regulatory variables have not been eliminated.

Pre-session futures and spot movements after the opening show that sentiment is dominated by data and remains sensitive to news. After PCE was announced, index futures rose, setting the tone for the opening rebound; into the intraday, consumer confidence weakened at the end of the day to suppress growth stocks, funds turned to defense and value themes. Although there is no sign of drastic change in bond market and volatility index, the trend of yield rate and the rhythm of policy landing are still important variables of science and technology valuation.

The list of leaders and losers at the individual stock level highlights the intertwined impact of rotation and fundamentals. In addition to the strength of Gexin and Intel, industrial leaders and transportation chains are generally popular; in contrast, mass sellers and e-commerce are under pressure, and the trend of social and some cloud services is sluggish. Investors focused on the relative weights of fundamental signals and policy headlines during intraday trading, and adopted strategic adjustments to push up every day and reduce risks every day.

The focus of follow-up observations will return to policy details and corporate fundamentals verification. Pay attention to the scope and implementation pace of the new tariff list, TikTok transaction progress and regulatory response, inflation and prosperity assessments in Fed officials 'conversations, and changes in orders and inventories in chips and industrial chains; whether volume and energy continue and whether funds continue to shift from growth to value will determine whether the index can maintain a stable pattern at the end of the quarter.

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