When I analyze a chart, I look for technical levels that "do their job"—levels where the market consistently reacts. On the 10-year yield chart above, the 200-hour moving average has done just that. Over the past three tests, the yield has found reliable support at the 200-hour MA, with each bounce occurring at progressively higher levels. This upward sequence has taken the yield from a low of 4.125% to a high of 4.564% so far in May.

The most recent test and rebound occurred earlier today at 4.43%, once again at the rising 200-hour MA. Currently, the yield is trading near the session highs at 4.489%, positioned above both the 100-hour MA at 4.477% and the 200-hour MA at 4.436%. As long as yields hold above both moving averages, the bias remains firmly tilted to the upside. A break below both—specifically a move under 4.436%—would shift that bias and open the door to further downside pressure.