Market analysis近期美国经济数据表现稳健，初领失业金人数下降，标普全球综合 PMI 自 52.9 升至 54.6，服务与制造业同步扩张。6 月扣除运输的耐久财订单月增 0.2%，亦优于预期。加上总统川普亲访联准会、鲍尔去留疑虑淡化，VIX 恐慌指数下跌近 3%，美股涨势延续，标普 500 指数连五日收高并创历史新高。截至上周五，已有 168 家（34%）标普 500 成分股公布财报，其中 80% EPS 优于预期，显示企业基本面健康，强化市场信心。虽然指数涨幅不大，但上涨广度大，共 332 档个股收红。类股方面，医疗保健表现最佳，主因财报优异与乐观前景；原材料获市场押注关税利多、工业类股受惠于运输族群带动，表现居前。资讯科技类股走势分歧，半导体中，超微（AMD）领涨 2.7%，英特尔（INTC）重挫 8.5%，辉达（NVDA）小跌 0.1%。软体方面，微软（MSFT）与 Palantir（PLTR）续创高；ServiceNow（NOW）回档 2.7%。非必需消费股整体强势。特斯拉（TSLA）大涨 3.5% 收复财报跌势，通用（GM）与福特（F）也受关税利多上扬 2.0%、1.9%。财报亮眼的 Deckers（DECK）大涨 11.3%，带动 Nike（NKE）。弱势板块为能源与房地产，前者受油价回落影响，后者则续受高利率压抑。 

major news item closely

general manager Daryl

Trump sets a tariff limit on August 1, and trade negotiations between Europe, the United States and Asian countries enter the final offensive and defensive position.

As the August 1 tariff limit set by U.S. President Trump approaches, major economies such as the European Union, South Korea and China are conducting intensive trade negotiations with the United States in an effort to avoid punitive tariffs of up to 30% hitting global supply chains and markets. The EU is expected to reach a framework agreement with the United States with a 15% benchmark tax rate, covering major export projects such as automobiles and steel and aluminum. South Korea has offered at least US$100 billion in investment plans in the United States, hoping to obtain tariff treatment similar to Japan. On the other hand, the United States and China will also restart negotiations in Sweden before August 12, trying to delay or renegotiate the terms of previously reached agreements. This series of tight diplomatic offenses and defenses will determine the next step of the global trade landscape.

The world's major economies are making every effort to avoid a tariff war with the United States. The EU and South Korea have used compromise tax rates and economic cooperation as bargaining chips respectively. If the negotiations fail, it may have a major impact on corporate confidence, trade flows and capital markets.

• EU is close to reaching a 15% tariff deal with US
  欧盟执委会主席范德赖恩与总统川普预计于苏格兰会晤，双方接近敲定将大部分欧盟商品输美关税统一至15%，钢铝品项维持50%。谈判若破局，欧盟已备妥对1,090亿美元美国商品的报复性关税清单，并获得成员国一致授权启动。

• South Korea offers US$100 billion investment package in exchange for tariff concessions
  南韩产业部长与通商大使接连访美，提出涵盖造船、半导体、农业与数位服务的互惠方案，并由三星、现代、SK海力士等企业出资打造大规模对美投资计划，以换取与日本同样15%的优惠税率，避免被排挤于全球出口竞争之外。

• EU plans to launch anti-coercion tools in case of emergency
  除报复性关税外，欧盟已准备启动「Anti-Coercion Instrument（ACI）」作为战略武器，必要时将限制进出口与市场准入。欧洲议会与执委会强调该工具为谈判施压手段，将视美方行动决定是否实际动用。

• Market and corporate pressures are heating up, financial forecasts are revised downwards and volatility is intensifying
  欧洲与南韩企业如Puma、Volkswagen等纷纷因贸易不确定性下修财测。资本市场短期因协议希望出现反弹，但若谈判无果，将面临剧烈修正与跨国供应链干扰。

• China-US trade talks have also resumed, with key meetings to be held in Sweden
  美国与中国将于8月12日前于瑞典举行新一轮谈判，针对农产品、科技出口与关税延后进行协商。若进展不顺，将为亚太贸易环境再添变数。

industry

China has released a global action plan for AI, emphasizing multilateral cooperation and industrial integration to form a competitive landscape with the United States

China officially released a global action plan for artificial intelligence on July 26, calling for the establishment of an international cooperation mechanism to promote technological development and norm formulation, and demonstrate the increasingly intensified AI competition with the United States. The plan was delivered by Premier Li Qiang in his opening speech at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) in Shanghai and proposed the establishment of a global AI cooperation organization. This move comes immediately after U.S. President Trump launched the AI policy, highlighting the gradual formation of two camps between China and the United States in the AI field: China advocates multilateral cooperation, and the United States promotes the formation of alliances. China also reiterated its "AI+" industrial integration strategy, emphasizing providing technical support to countries in the global South in an attempt to consolidate its influence in emerging markets.

The strategic differences between China and the United States on AI policies and technology supply chains have become increasingly clear. China has strengthened its scientific and technological sovereignty and voice through global initiatives and extended its digital influence through the "Belt and Road" initiative. The United States is trying to contain China's technological development, and the AI geo-technological landscape is accelerating its division.

• China releases a global action plan for AI and advocates the establishment of international cooperation organizations
  中国总理李强于WAIC发表AI政策，提议成立全球AI合作组织，主张在发展与治理方面推动多边主义，与美国近期政策形成鲜明对比。中国强调将协助全球南方国家使用AI技术，扩大地缘技术影响力。

• There is a sharp contrast between China and the United States 'AI policy routes
  美国日前推出AI行动计划，聚焦于减少AI偏见、推动美国技术出口，并限制对中国的晶片供应。中国则倡导全球共治，强调不排他、促进技术普惠，凸显价值观与制度模式之差异。

• China promotes "AI+" cross-industry integration
  李强指出，中国将推动AI技术深度应用于制造、医疗、教育等关键领域，并提出「AI+产业」发展策略，借此强化内需与产业升级。

• International exchanges are booming, and former Google CEO visits attract attention
  前Google执行长Eric Schmidt与上海市委书记会晤，引发外界对中美民间技术对话的高度关注。尽管官方未公开会谈细节，但此举被视为一种平衡与沟通的象征性动作。

• China's independent development of AI hardware is accelerating
  尽管NVIDIA (NVDA) 近期恢复对中国出口H20中阶晶片，中国仍持续扶植国产AI晶片替代方案。NVIDIA执行长黄仁勋在访中期间称中国竞争对手「实力强大、不可忽视」，印证中国在AI硬体上的追赶态势。

stocks

Tesla plans to expand its Robotaxi layout, facing regulatory pressure and shareholder concerns

Tesla (TSLA) is accelerating its Robotaxi service plan, but it is still limited by self-driving regulations in California and can only operate in a "manned" manner. The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) made it clear that Tesla has not yet obtained the necessary permission to pick up passengers on its own and can only operate the "Friends and Family" service in human driving. On the other hand, Tesla will hold a shareholder meeting in November and has received a number of shareholder proposals on potential investment issues in xAI. As Musk actively promotes business integration, from AI to transportation, Tesla is in a critical transition period of expansion and risk.

Tesla is accelerating the deployment of AI and Robotaxi, but due to U.S. regulations and market doubts, it still needs to rely on human driving in the short term and needs to obtain more compliance authorizations and shareholder support in the long run.

• California only allows non-self-driving pick-up services
  虽马斯克于财报电话会中提及Robotaxi将拓展至旧金山湾区，但CPUC强调特斯拉目前仅持有类似于包车的营运许可，仅能用人类驾驶方式提供服务，并禁止任何形式的自动驾驶载客。

• Robotaxi initially landed in Austin, but still requires manual monitoring
  特斯拉已于德州奥斯汀测试Robotaxi服务，使用Model Y搭载Full Self-Driving（FSD Supervised）软体，并配有人类安全员。目前仅限于日间、好天气条件下运行，服务对象也仅限于受邀用户。

• Shareholder proposal challenges xAI integration plan
  特斯拉日前宣布将对马斯克的AI创业公司xAI进行潜在投资，计划由股东投票决定，吸引多项股东提案。xAI近来完成100亿美元募资，并收购社群平台X，加强Grok聊天机器人与特斯拉车载系统整合，引发市场对资源重叠与治理结构的疑虑。

• Supervision and communication transparency focus
  加州地方官员批评特斯拉未主动通报Robotaxi服务规划，要求其在技术试行与公共服务推进上提高资讯透明度。加州车辆管理局（DMV）也指出，特斯拉目前仅持有「人类安全员测试」许可，尚未申请收费与无人车运营资格。

• Waymo shows lead
  相较之下，Alphabet (GOOGL) 旗下的Waymo已在加州获得全自驾载客许可，经历九年、超过1,300万英里测试。特斯拉若欲扩大Robotaxi商转，需遵循类似路径，进行分阶段试营运并取得完整监管授权。

Demand for repair has soared after the ban on Fuida AI chips, and the black market and maintenance industries have emerged simultaneously in China

After the United States restricted the export of high-level artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China, the maintenance demand for NVDA H100 and A100 chips in the China market has increased rapidly, forming a gray supply chain. Several Shenzhen industry operators said that the monthly repair volume is as high as hundreds, indicating that these banned chips flow into China through informal channels and have been used in large quantities in data centers and military institutions. The U.S. Congress is pushing legislation to require post-shipment tracking of these chips to curb smuggling. Although China has developed home-made alternatives such as Huawei chips, the market still clearly prefers Vidia chips. This phenomenon also highlights the thirst and response of the private and state systems for top-level computing resources under the U.S. and China technological blockade.

Under export controls, Fuida chips have formed a "semi-illegal" repair and circulation chain in China, reflecting the global shortage of advanced AI computing resources and the continued intensification of geopolitical tensions.

• Demand for H100 and A100 wafer repair surges
  多家深圳公司专门维修被禁出口至中国的辉达高阶GPU，其中一家公司每月处理达500颗，并建置模拟数据中心环境进行测试与验证，单次修复费用可达人民币2万元。

• Chip smuggling and gray market expansion
  这类维修需求显示H100与A100晶片大量流入中国非官方通路，根据标案纪录，中国政府与军方仍持续采购这些高性能晶片。美国两党已提出追踪晶片流向的法案，并获川普政府支持。

• Restrictions on official maintenance services have prompted the rise of the maintenance industry
  辉达无法对受限晶片提供官方维修与更换，反观第三方业者透过PCB维修、记忆体检测、风扇更换等手段提供全套服务，并以原价约10%的价格进行修复。

• H20 chips cannot completely replace H100 performance
  尽管美国近期放行专为中国设计的H20晶片，但其主要针对AI推论，无法有效支援大型语言模型训练，且单台伺服器售价高达人民币100万元以上，限制其普及。

• China buyers turn to higher-end chips such as B200
  市场对辉达新一代B200晶片需求浮现，每台含8颗B200的伺服器在中国黑市价格高达人民币300万元，反映出尽管有禁令与替代品，市场仍追求最高效能解决方案。

Meta will completely stop EU political advertising from October to respond to new rules

Meta (META) announced that it will completely stop advertising on political, electoral and social issues within the EU starting from October 2025, and attributed the decision to the EU's upcoming Political Advertising Transparency and Targeting Act (TTPA). The bill requires platforms to indicate the source, amount and target election of political advertisements. Violators can be fined up to 6% of annual revenue. Meta pointed out that the regulations will pose major operational challenges and may weaken voters 'ability to obtain information. Google made the same decision last year, showing a collective backlash among large technology companies against stricter EU regulations.

Faced with the EU's new political advertising regulations, Meta and Google chose to suspend services rather than comply, highlighting the institutional tension between regulatory transparency and operational feasibility.

• The new regulations will take effect on October 10
  欧盟《政治广告透明与定向法案》要求平台详列广告赞助者、金额与针对选举，旨在防堵假讯息与外国势力干预，违者可处年营收6%的重罚。

• Meta states that new rules bring "legal uncertainty"
  Meta表示，由于规范模糊与执行风险过高，选择停止相关广告业务，避免平台及用户双方陷入法律争议，称此为「困难但必要的决定」。

• Impact on voters 'right to information
  Meta强调，定向广告是政治与社会议题传播的重要工具，新法将限制非营利与公共倡议组织的沟通效能，影响选民对政策的了解。

• EU launches investigation into Meta and TikTok
  欧盟执委会已根据《数位服务法》对Meta旗下Facebook与Instagram展开调查，质疑其在2024欧洲议会选举前未能有效打击假讯息，TikTok也因未管控选举干预行为面临相同审查。

• Large technology platforms responded in unison, highlighting institutional frictions
  此次Meta行动与Google去年相同决策相呼应，显示美国科技平台对欧盟数位监管逐渐采取退出或保守应对策略，监管机构与平台间的矛盾仍待协调。