[Pre-market U.S. Stocks] Pre-market keywords of the day (2025.09.17)

The Federal Reserve is in sight of interest rate cuts, and the market waits and focuses on subsequent easing signals

U.S. stock futures were nearly flat before trading late Wednesday in Taiwan time, as investors focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision early Thursday morning in Taiwan time. The market generally expects the first interest rate cut to be implemented within the year, with the focus turning to whether the dot matrix and the chairman's press conference will release clues of continued easing in the future. The 10-year U.S. bond yield dropped to near a nearly five-month low of 4.01%. After reaching a high level, gold prices fluctuated high, and Bitcoin fell slightly simultaneously, indicating that risk appetite remained neutral and cautious.

Futures were slightly consolidated, and bond interest rates were low, providing room for the stock market to increase its evaluation.

S & P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell less than 0.1% before the market, while Dow Jones futures were nearly flat. U.S. stocks once hit another all-time high in intraday trading day, but fell back from high in the end, indicating that the atmosphere of tight positions before the resolution was still in place. The 10-year U.S. bond yield was reported at 4.01%, the low range since April. The relaxation of interest rates has helped stock market evaluation, but short-term uncertainty has suppressed the momentum of the market.

The consensus on interest rate cuts is one-yard, and labor market signals make the dot chart more eye-catching.

Most investors expect a 1-yard interest rate cut, and a few bet 2-yard interest rates. Recent signs of weakening in the labor market are seen as a key background for the eagle to turn from dove to dove. The resolution simultaneously releases economic and interest rate forecasts. The dot chart is particularly critical to the path of interest rate cuts this year and next year. If the median shows a longer or deeper easing pace, the short-end interest rate curve may be re-priced.

The tone of Bauer's press conference was critical, and the pace of communication may affect the curve and the trend of the US dollar.

Powell held a press conference at 2:30 a.m. Taiwan time on Thursday, paying attention to his trade-off between cooling growth, falling inflation and loosening of the labor market. If it is emphasized that risk balance shifts to the growth side, financial conditions may be further relaxed; if inflation stickiness and data dependence are reiterated, interest rate forward guidance may be conservative, and the trend of the curve and the strength of the US dollar will be affected.

China repurchases purchases of Huida chips, raising risks in the technology supply chain and geographies

Foreign news reported that China's Cyberspace Administration has asked companies to stop purchasing RTX Pro6000D designed by Viida for the local market, which is stronger than previous restrictions on H20. Nvidia's share price fell about 1% before the market, as investors were concerned about its impact on the construction progress of related AI infrastructure in China and supply chain replacement. The news also superimposed on antitrust disputes, heating up the variables in Sino-US science and technology supervision.

Community and hardware meet, Meta AI glasses attract attention to drive the topic of wearable

The Meta Platforms(Facebook parent company Meta, META) developer conference is expected to showcase AI-enhanced smart glasses and other new technologies. Mark Zuckerberg is scheduled to deliver a keynote speech at 8 a.m. Taiwan time on Thursday, focusing on how Hypernova glasses integrate with the ecosystem. Competitors including Apple(Apple, AAPL), Samsung and Amazon(Amazon, AMZN) are also actively deploying, and wearable and spatial computing are expected to become the focus of the next wave of AI terminal carriers.

The dynamic of cloud and short audio and video continues, and the cooperation between TikTok and Oracle attracts attention

Market sources allege that Oracle(Oracle, ORCL) will continue to provide TikTok cloud services, which is part of the US discussion framework. There are also reports that the U.S. regulatory path for TikTok is still under negotiation. Against the background of the Trump administration's previous extension of the ByteDance disposal period, relevant policies and industrial cooperation arrangements continue to attract attention.

The focus of new shares is on StubHub, raising US$800 million in median pricing

StubHub(StubHub, STUB) raised $800 million in its initial public offering, priced at $23.50 per share in the middle of the range, issued 34 million shares, with a valuation of approximately $8.8 billion. The stock is expected to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The market is concerned about the cash flow elasticity and growth curve of secondary ticketing platforms, and will also serve as a thermometer for the new stock market in the near future.

Asia's technological strength and European stocks are under pressure, and cross-regional momentum diverges

On the previous trading day, U.S. stocks fell slightly, while Asian stocks performed differently. The Hong Kong Science and Technology Index strengthened due to AI themes. Baidu(Baidu, BIDU)'s trading in Hong Kong surged nearly 16%, benefiting from model progress and news of cooperation with state-owned enterprises; European stocks were weak, and investors also reduced risks before the decision. The divergence of cross-regional trends reflects different sensitivities to uncertainty about U.S. policies.

Raw materials and encrypted assets are retracted, and high-end shocks in gold prices trigger rebalancing discussions

Gold futures are about US$3,700 per ounce. They fell slightly after hitting a record high on Tuesday. If the Fed's tone is biased, the trend of real interest rates will become an important factor influencing the price of gold. Bitcoin fell back to about $116,300, and testing of the resilience of risky assets to the interest rate path continues.

The seven leading U.S. stocks were mixed, with pre-market focus on semiconductor and social stocks

Amid the intertwining of technology regulation and supply chain news, semiconductor, cloud and social media stocks were among the top of the market. Large-scale equity stocks such as Microsoft(MSFT) and Meta sorted out slightly. Huida was slightly affected by news from China. Investors were also concerned about Apple's new product cycle and the pace of monetization of AI services. At a time when news is intensive, the rotation speed of stocks may accelerate, and changes in volume and energy have become the focus of observation.

Policies and international aspects are simultaneously affected, and news of rare earth and trade negotiations is on the horizon

The European Chamber of Commerce pointed out that China's strict control over rare earths is still difficult to obtain foreign investment, and the issue of supply chain resilience has resurfaced. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed his optimism that the United States and China will continue dialogue before November, and the market will focus on whether to ease the uncertainty of mutual tariffs. Japan's annual export decline converged in August, exports to Asia and Western Europe improved, exports to the United States continued to weaken, and external demand signals were neutral.

Today's key schedule and observation focus, market interpretation is more important after the implementation of the resolution

The interest rate decision is scheduled to be released at 2 a.m. Taiwan time on Thursday, followed by a press conference at 2:30 a.m. In addition to the rate cut itself, the dot chart's policy path for this year and next year, estimates of unemployment and core inflation, and Bauer's description of financial conditions and risk balance are all key variables that affect the evaluation of the interest rate curve, the US dollar and stocks and bonds.

Structural themes remain unchanged, and AI investment and capital expenditure cycles continue to drive risk appetite

No matter how anchored the short-term decision is, the direction of capital expenditures by companies on AI infrastructure, cloud and terminal devices remains unchanged, and new product launches and adjustments in computing power supply continue to affect the relative performance of technology stocks. In an environment where geography and regulatory uncertainty are intertwined, funds will pay more attention to cash flow quality and profit visibility, and pre-market pricing reflects a rebalancing of path and pace.