According to online reports, the Federal Reserve minutes mentioned that staff forecasts for real GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 were lower than those at the March meeting, because announced trade policies meant that actual economic activity would be dragged down more than those assumed by staff in previous forecasts. Trade policies are also expected to lead to slower productivity growth, reducing potential GDP growth in coming years. As the drag on demand is expected to start earlier and be more responsive than supply, the output gap is expected to widen significantly over the forecast period. The labor market is expected to weaken significantly, and the unemployment rate is forecast to be higher than staff estimates of the natural unemployment rate by the end of this year and remain above the natural unemployment rate until 2027.