[Pre-market U.S. Stocks] Pre-market keywords of the day (2025.09.02)

Risk assets are under pressure, futures fall back and tariff uncertainty are rising, affecting opening sentiment

Before U.S. stocks opened tonight in Taiwan time, the three major futures fell and gold and oil both strengthened. The market re-priced policy and liquidity changes after the long Labor Day weekend. Last Friday, the Federal Appeals Court overturned many Trump's "reciprocal tariff" rulings, and the Treasury Secretary signaled that other sources of law could be used, creating new variables in the tariff path. Risk aversion drove gold to a high level, Bitcoin and U.S. bond yields rose at the same time, and technology and high-rated groups endured valuation tests. For individual stocks, Kraft Heinz(KHC) announced a split, Spirit Airlines(SAVE) filed for bankruptcy again, Nestlé(NSRGY) replaced its CEO, and food and aerospace defense, energy and weight-loss drugs themes also intertwined before the market to affect financial momentum.

Futures fell across the board, led by technology weight

Nasdaq 100 futures fell about 1%, S & P 500 futures fell about 0.8%, and Dow Jones futures fell about 0.6%. U.S. stocks rose for the fourth consecutive month in August, but fell to close on the last trading day of the month, and risk appetite cooled in the first trading session after the holiday. There was a lack of spot trading in U.S. stocks during the long weekend, and futures became the main export of sentiment. The weight of technology was greatly affected by rising interest rates and risk passivation. Pre-market endogenous transactions were light, increasing the possibility of opening fluctuations.

Tariff rulings add variables, and the Supreme Court and other sources of law draw attention

The Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled 7 - 4 that many Trump-era tariffs lacked existing legal support, emphasizing that Congress had exclusive tax power. Trump criticized the court for being biased on social platforms, saying that the Supreme Court will ultimately rule. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview that even if the Supreme Court ruled that tariffs were illegal, there were still other legal authorizations available and mentioned the Smot-Hawley Tariff Law as a possible basis. Trump also said that India had a positive signal on its tariff issue against the United States but did not elaborate on it. The sensitivity to news among trade-sensitive groups and export-oriented manufacturing industries has increased, and the period of uncertainty in market assessment of tariffs and supply chain costs may be extended.

Gold hits record high, Bitcoin and U.S. bond yields rise at the same time

Gold futures stood above $3550 per ounce and hit a record high, reflecting the need for hedging and hedging on the real interest rate path. The yield rate on 10-year U.S. bonds rose before the market, increasing discount pressure on high-growth stocks. Bitcoin rose to about US$110,000, and the structure of risk and safe-haven assets strengthening at the same time shows that funds are dispersed at the intersection of policy and macro. The linkage between capital costs and real yields has become the core of pre-market valuation measurement.

Oil prices have risen for three times, energy sentiment is high and transportation cost pressure is rising

International oil prices rose nearly 3% before the market. Against the background of tight supply and demand expectations and the geopolitical risk temperature, the mood of energy groups is relatively strong. Higher oil prices will put pressure on the costs of aviation, transportation and chemicals, and will benefit refining and upstream mining industries. As the energy weight rises, the internal structure of the index may experience a short-term rebalancing of growth versus value.

Eurasian stock markets diverge, South Korea's lower-than-expected inflation boosts stock markets

Asian stocks were divided in early trading, with South Korea's Kospi rising about 0.8%, as inflation in August was lower than expected, supporting the local risky asset atmosphere. European stocks strengthened intraday defense, with Norway ordering British warships driving the European aerospace and defense stock index higher. From the geopolitical perspective, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit released developments in China-India relations, cross-border AI cooperation and the New Development Bank, adding discussions on long-term pattern changes. However, the impact on risk assets tonight in Taiwan is still dominated by financial uncertainty and tariff uncertainty.

Kraft Heinz split, brand portfolio restructuring triggers valuation imagination

Kraft Heinz(KHC) announced its split into two companies, which is equivalent to reversing the merger and acquisition integration ten years ago. One company includes brands such as Heinz, Philadelphia and Kraft Mac & Cheese, with combined sales of US$15.4 billion in 2024; the other company includes Oscar Mayer, Kraft Singles and Lunchables, with sales of US$10.4 billion in 2024. The name of the new company is to be determined. The stock is down about 9% year-to-date and slightly higher before the market. Investors are concerned about brand focus and capital allocation efficiency after the spin-off, as well as potential differences in debt structure and dividend policies.

Nestlé 's top executives are in turmoil, corporate governance and growth strategies are under review

Nestlé(NSRGY) has been replaced and replaced by Philipp Navratil, head of its Nespresso business, who has violated the Code of Business Conduct after its chief executive was found to have an undisclosed relationship with its direct subordinates. Nestlé has faced pressure to slow growth in recent years, and management changes have caused the market to reassess its brand investment and innovation pace. Although it is not the local target of U.S. stocks, the personnel and strategy changes of global food leaders have reference significance for the evaluation of U.S. stock consumer defense groups.

Spirit Airlines once again filed for bankruptcy and maintained ticketing operations as usual

Spirit Airlines(SAVE) filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization for the second time in less than a year. The company said it would maintain normal operations during the reorganization period and passengers could book seats and use coupons, vouchers and miles as usual. The company has previously warned that it may face financial pressure in the next 12 months. The fare strategy and fleet operation flexibility of low-cost airlines will continue to be subject to market review, and the pricing environment of relevant supply chains and competing products will also become the focus of observation.

Medical and energy themes are intertwined, and news of wind power and weight-loss drugs in Europe attracts attention

Norway energy company Equinor(Norway National Energy Company, EQNR) will participate in the growth of European wind power leader Orsted, sending a signal of confidence in the industry and having a positive impact on renewable energy sentiment. In terms of medicine, Novo Nordisk's weight-loss drug Wegovy is better in reducing the risk of myocardial infarction than Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide in clinical practice, stimulating the stock price performance of European stocks during the period. ADRs and peer reviews corresponding to U.S. stock trading at night in Taiwan time are expected to attract attention. The relative strength of European defense stocks has also made the comparative evaluation of the U.S. aerospace defense community emerge.

Raw material prices resonate with asset prices, and funds are racing between risk avoidance and growth

The combination of high gold, rising oil prices, rising Bitcoin and higher U.S. bond yields shows that funds are seeking a balance between resilience to inflation, policy uncertainty and growth opportunities. Changes in the US dollar and interest rates have an increased impact on corporate exchange losses, capital expenditures and inventory decisions. Against the background of light pre-market volume, the flow of funds after the opening has a more direct impact on the intraday structure.

Focus on today's observation, policy signals and capital costs dominate the intraday pace

Before the market opens at 9:30 tonight in Taiwan time, pay attention to the follow-up of tariff litigation and the traction of the Minister of Finance's remarks on trade expectations, and pay attention to the impact of futures and bond markets on technology weights and defensive assets. The persistence of strong gold and oil and higher yields is indicative of the relative performance of energy, finance and highly valued growth stocks. Across individual stocks, the Kraft Heinz split, the reorganization of Spiritual Aviation, Nestlé personnel changes, and the dynamics of renewable energy and weight-loss drugs in Europe may affect intraday premiums and risk appetite of food, aviation, medical and energy-related groups. Overall, the mood on the first day of the Labor Day is influenced by policy uncertainty and capital costs. The strength of the opening still depends on the flow of funds and the malleability of the news.