According to online reports, CITIC Securities Research reported that the Federal Reserve's interest-rate meeting in May 2025 will keep the policy interest rate unchanged, and the meeting statement emphasized that "uncertainty has further intensified." Powell's entire speech revolved around the words "uncertain" and "watching while walking", and there seemed to be little incremental information. However, based on our analysis framework of "transitory inflation+ weather growth+ high uncertainty", current U.S. economic data and inflation expectations have been reduced in response to interest rate cuts. We still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates less than or equal to twice during the year, and expect the policy rate to remain unchanged at the Federal Reserve's interest-rate meeting in June. On the market side, the dull meeting did not cause too much turmoil. We expect that the market will still trade around Trump's tariff policy in the short term. The bearish sentiment of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market is still strong. The outlook for US stocks is not yet clear, and it is expected to remain high in the short term. (Jin Shi)