Market analysis在Alphabet（GOOGL）公布优于预期的财报，并展现积极的资本支出决心后，市场对AI发展的乐观预期再度升温。科技股气势如虹，推动标普与那斯达克指数连续创高。不过，道琼指数受金融与工业股拖累略为回落。经济方面，美国上周初领失业救济金人数降至21.7万人，创四月中以来新低，显示就业市场仍具韧性，也使市场对联准会（Fed）短期内降息的预期降温。投资情绪方面，虽部分机构担忧资金过热与估值泡沫，包括高盛（GS）与Citadel等大型资管机构仍建议客户建立避险部位，以防高档修正；德意志银行亦示警称杠杆交易过热可能波及信贷市场。政治方面，川普陆续签署多项贸易协议，政策不确定性明显下降，有助支撑美股风险偏好。虽他重申8月1日实施的「对等关税」最低将为15%，但市场普遍认为利空已提前反应。另一方面，川普与联准会主席鲍威尔一同视察总部整修工程，并当场因预算问题公开争执，川普再次强调降息立场并暗示若自己是企业主，将会「开除预算失控的项目经理」，凸显其持续对Fed施压的态度。AI题材持续发酵，科技与通讯类股成为本轮行情的主力推升动能。辉达（NVDA）与博通（AVGO）股价再创历史新高，显示市场对其资料中心与加速运算晶片需求的高度共识。企业软体领域中，ServiceNow（NOW）财报大幅优于预期，单日劲扬逾4%，进一步巩固AI商用化的乐观预期。通讯服务类股亦表现稳健，由Alphabet（GOOGL）领军，主因其AI产品推动业绩成长，并同步上修资本支出预测，释出对未来需求的信心。T-Mobile（TMUS）因新增用户数超出市场预期，股价飙升5.8%，也显示通讯类股具备基本面支撑。相较之下，非必需消费类股最为疲软，系因特斯拉（TSLA）财报未如预期，第二季营收年减12%，创下2012年以来最大衰退幅度。执行长马斯克亦对未来数季营运发出警讯，导致股价重挫8.2%，也连带影响整体汽车族群表现。

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general manager Daryl

EU-U.S. trade deal hangs in the balance, Europe prepares for retaliatory measures to deal with worst-case scenarios

Negotiations on a trade deal between the EU and the United States have entered a critical stage, but no final agreement has yet been reached. Although the market expects the two sides to be close to reaching a consensus, the EU continues to prepare for potential retaliatory measures before the United States makes a clear statement and has proposed a set of countermeasures of up to 93 billion euros. Given that the United States may implement tariffs of up to 30% on August 1, Europe is considering launching a highly deterrent "anti-coercion tool" to restrict U.S. companies from entering the EU market. Although the benchmark tariff of 15% seems lighter than expected, European markets remain highly uncertain in the absence of clear guarantees.

• 协议仍无定案
  目前欧盟与美国仍在持续接触，但协议尚未确立。白宫表示现阶段的关税讨论仍属「推测」，最终决定掌握在总统川普手中。

• 欧盟防备报复措施
  欧盟准备930亿欧元的报复性关税清单，可能于美方关税实施后数日内启动。此外，「反胁迫工具」也被纳入考量，将限制美企参与欧盟公共标案与投资。

• 关税方案细节曝光
  现阶段协议内容可能包括15%基准关税（包含现有约4.8%税率），但仍可能针对特定项目设豁免。相比先前传出的50%税率，已属相对温和。

• 市场反应审慎乐观
  虽有部分市场受消息激励，但投资人与经济学者普遍对后续波动保持警觉，认为仍有较高不确定性。

• 法国推动立即反制
  目前仅法国公开支持立即启动反胁迫措施，但欧盟内部已有多数支持采取更强硬立场的共识。

Trump's aluminum tariffs unintentionally set off opportunities for the U.S. recycling industry and green transformation

U.S. President Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported aluminum, originally to boost local manufacturing, but unexpectedly stimulated the rapid expansion of the domestic recycled aluminum industry. Because recycled aluminum is not subject to high tariffs and can be produced with only 5% energy consumption, coupled with the United States 'high dependence on aluminum imports, companies and investors are turning to building low-capital, high-efficiency recycling facilities. This wave of changes will not only help reduce the carbon footprint, but may also reverse the global aluminum trade structure and create a more sustainable aluminum supply chain.

• 关税驱动回收市场成长
  川普政府对原铝加征50%关税，导致价格飙升，进而促使企业改用成本较低、免关税的回收铝。

• 回收铝能效与环保兼具
  根据国际铝协会，回收铝生产所需能量仅为原铝的5%，对于能源竞争激烈的产业环境而言更具吸引力。

• 全球贸易流向可能反转
  美国过去每年出口约200万吨铝废料，如今因内部需求升高与政策不确定性，出口量大幅下滑，欧洲业者也开始考虑将废铝出口至美国。

• 建厂成本低、速度快
  新回收厂兴建成本仅为传统熔炼厂的10%，且建厂期仅需1到2年。挪威铝业巨头Hydro 于2023年在密西根州完成第三座回收厂。

• 企业需求转向低碳铝
  BMW与现代汽车等大厂已展现采购低碳铝的兴趣，推升回收铝市场前景，成为企业碳中和目标的重要一环。

Trump made a surprise visit to the Federal Reserve Headquarters and escalated pressure on Powell, impacting the independence of the central bank and market confidence

U.S. President Trump personally visited the Federal Reserve headquarters, breaking the president's practice of not interfering in the operations of the central bank, and further pressing Chairman Powell to cut interest rates. In addition to questioning the $250 million renovation budget overrun, this action also accompanied by another public criticism of Bauer's failure to cooperate with the easing policy. Although Trump denies plans to immediately fire him, his radical remarks and symbolic actions have aroused market concerns and may affect the Fed's policy decision-making independence and international credibility.

• 川普施压鲍尔降息至1%
  川普希望Fed将利率降至1%，以降低政府借贷成本，支撑其税改与支出政策，然而此一利率水准通常反映经济困境，与联准会目前审慎评估相左。

• 白宫聚焦翻修案预算超支
  Fed翻修两栋大楼成本膨胀至25亿美元，引来白宫强烈质疑，预算局长指控可能涉及监督不力甚至诈欺，引爆政治风波。

• 联准会独立性备受挑战
  历任总统罕有访问央行总部，川普此举被视为公开施压与威吓，破坏央行独立决策传统，引发两位前Fed主席警告恐造成「长期且严重的经济伤害」。

• 鲍尔法律保障免遭解职
  尽管川普曾放话解雇鲍尔，最高法院近期裁决暗示总统不得无故解职Fed主席，增添法律与政治争议。

• 市场反应审慎观望
  消息公布后，美债殖利率变动有限、美元略贬，但投资人警惕央行政策将受政治干预，削弱市场对货币政策透明性与可信度的信心。

industry

AI advertising will become the main growth force in the entertainment and media industry, with global output value estimated to be US$3.5 trillion in 2029

According to PwC's latest "2025-29 Global Entertainment and Media Industry Outlook" report, AI technology is driving the accuracy and efficiency improvement of digital advertising, and will become the main growth momentum of industry revenue in the next few years. The industry is expected to expand at an average annual growth rate of 3.7%, reaching a global scale of US$3.5 trillion in 2029. Although global economic pressures suppress consumption willingness, AI introduction is expected to support revenue growth from advertising, games and streaming content.

• AI推升数位广告渗透率
  数位格式广告占整体广告收入比重将由2024年的72%提升至2029年的80%，AI与个人化技术提高精准行销效果，成为广告主新宠。

• 互联网电视广告快速成长
  Connected TV 广告收入预计2029年达510亿美元，受惠于观众转向数位平台与串流服务增加。

• 游戏产业持续强劲
  全球电玩市场规模至2029年预估可达3,000亿美元，成为产业第二大收入来源，仅次于广告。

• 现场活动与非数位品类回温
  除了数位媒体，实体娱乐如演唱会、体育赛事等需求也在回升，成为成长支撑项目之一。

• 业者需积极应对变局
  PwC强调，面对高通膨与消费转型，企业必须善用技术创新并提供差异化内容，以维持竞争优势与用户黏著度。

stocks

Google parent company Alphabet significantly expands capital expenditures, cloud and AI demand drives up revenue

Alphabet (GOOGL)'s second-quarter financial report performed well. Driven by strong demand for AI and cloud services, revenue reached US$96.43 billion, higher than market expectations of US$94 billion. The company announced that it will increase capital expenditures in 2025 to US$85 billion, an increase of US$10 billion from its original plan, and forecast further expansion in 2026. Although the high investment has caused some investors to worry about profitability, Google's active deployment in the cloud and AI fields is gradually translating into actual returns, reigniting the market's confidence in its competitiveness.

• 云端业务成长超预期
  Google Cloud营收年增近32%，远高于市场预估的26.5%，显示企业用户对AI基础设施需求强劲。OpenAI近期更将Google Cloud列为云端供应商之一，强化其产业地位。

• AI服务用户成长迅速
  AI搜寻功能AI Mode已达1亿月活跃用户，自推出仅两个月。Gemini月活用户超过4.5亿，显示AI产品吸引力与市场接受度不断攀升。

• 数位广告仍为营收主力
  第二季广告营收年增10.4%，达713.4亿美元，超越预期，缓解市场对AI搜寻功能可能侵蚀搜寻广告收入的疑虑。

• 提高资本支出引发两极评价
  2025年资本支出由750亿美元调升至850亿美元，投资重点为资料中心、AI晶片与TPU。部分分析师担心短期获利压力，但多家券商调升目标价至220美元。

• 估值仍具吸引力
  相较微软 (MSFT) 与亚马逊 (AMZN)，Alphabet预估本益比仅18.88，显示即使在法规风险阴影下，其股价仍有评价修复空间。

Tesla (TSLA) sales fell again in the second quarter, and Robotaxi's share price fell 8% to resolve the decline in its core business.

Tesla (TSLA)'s automotive revenue fell 16% year-on-year in the second quarter, and total revenue fell to US$22.5 billion, falling for two consecutive quarters. CEO Musk admitted at the earnings conference that the company faces "several difficult quarters" and pinned his hopes on the future layout of Robotaxi and cheap electric vehicles. However, Robotaxi still faces major regulatory obstacles. The weakness of its main business, brand damage and pressure to exit subsidies are simultaneously fermenting, causing Tesla's share price to plummet 8% in a single day, and the decline has reached 24% during the year.

• Robotaxi推进受限
  特斯拉仅在德州奥斯汀小规模测试Robotaxi，尚未获加州等核心市场的主要营运许可，监管障碍与过去承诺落空使投资人信心动摇。

• 电动车销量重挫
  Q2车辆交付量年减14%至38.4万辆，美国EV补贴将于9月底终止，对消费者购车意愿造成冲击。特斯拉未提供全年交车展望。

• 中国与欧洲竞争压力剧增
  低价中国电动车品牌持续蚕食市占，加上马斯克政治立场争议不断，损害特斯拉在欧洲与自由派消费市场的品牌形象。

• 投资人关注廉价新车进度
  CFO表示6月已开始小量生产平价车款，但规模化仍需等待下半年，未来利润率将承压。特斯拉仍未就此释出具体上市时程。

• 特斯拉估值面临修正风险
  公司高达1兆美元的市值仰赖Robotaxi与AI前景支撑，惟当前尚无明确变现模式。分析师预期未来将下修销售与盈余预测。

Wal-Mart launches AI super agent program to expand its layout and transform its e-commerce and operational automation

Global retail leader Wal-Mart (WMT) has announced the launch of four AI "Super Agents" with the goal of reshaping the interactive experience of customers, employees, suppliers and developers and replacing existing decentralized AI tools. The move is part of its overall promotion of e-commerce transformation and automated operations, and it is expected that e-commerce revenue will account for 50% of total sales in the next five years. Although the short-term financial impact is unclear, Wal-Mart is betting that AI can become a key weapon in competing with Amazon.

• 四大AI代理全方位布局
  超级代理将分别服务顾客（如Sparky）、员工、供应商与软体开发者，涵盖购物建议、退货、补货、广告管理等多面向应用，强化流程效率与用户体验。

• Sparky升级赋能购物体验
  AI助手Sparky将从基本推荐升级为可自动补货、活动规划、影像辨识食材等进阶任务，结合生成式AI与电脑视觉，实现高互动个人化服务。

• 员工与供应链作业整合
  内部即将推出的「Associate Agent」能处理人资与营运问题，如请假申请、即时库存查询；供应商端的「Marty」则整合下单与行销推广工具。

• AI战略引领数位转型
  沃尔玛近年积极布局AI与自动化，并延揽Instacart前高层担任AI加速部门主管，显示其对技术驱动电商成长的长期承诺。

• 就业影响备受关注
  尽管官方表示AI将创造新职位，未明言是否导致裁员，但沃尔玛已同步进行部分人力精简与仓储自动化，AI导入效应仍需观察。