According to online reports, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting pointed out that the benchmark policy path implicit based on option prices (representing mainstream market expectations) moved down slightly during this period, indicating that interest rates may be cut once or twice (25 basis points each time) by the end of the year-only slightly more than expected at the March FOMC meeting. The probability distribution of year-end interest rates implied by options shifts to the left, and the downside risks are significantly enhanced. As the market believes that the downside risks of policy interest rates are intensifying, the expected policy path implicit in the futures market has been lowered even more, indicating that interest rates may be cut about three times before the end of the year. However, the path of the median benchmark interest rate shown by the market expectation survey has not changed much, and still indicates that interest rates will be cut twice to three times this year. However, the survey pointed out that respondents 'differences on the most likely policy path.