U.S. consumers are still opening their wallets even as tariff pressures intensify, according to new data from Apollo Global Management. But Citi Research warns the resilience may not last, projecting global growth will slip below 2% in the second half of 2025 as President Trump’s aggressive trade policies push the effective U.S. tariff rate to its highest level in decades. Together, the two research notes highlight a world economy caught between near-term spending strength and looming global strains.

Apollo: Consumers Still Spending

Apollo’s Daily Data for U.S. Consumer Spending, published August 25 and led by Chief Economist Torsten Slok, shows that spending momentum has broadly stabilized after months of volatility. Following a sharp increase in purchases earlier this year—when households sought to front-load goods before tariff hikes—consumer outlays dipped but have since normalized.

As of mid-August, total spending was up 2.35% year-over-year, above the 90-day average of 1.88%, indicating what Apollo termed “rising momentum”. Essentials such as food, beverages, and general merchandise drove much of this growth, while discretionary purchases showed stark divergences. Cruises and dining continued to expand strongly, while furniture, clothing, and electronics lagged.

The charts on pages 7–9 of Apollo's report illustrate this divide: general merchandise stores posted nearly 5% growth, while furniture and home furnishings fell more than 4%. Categories directly exposed to tariffs—including clothing, electronics, and nonstore retailers—registered negative growth, suggesting tariff pass-through effects are beginning to weigh on spending patterns.

Citi: Global Growth Faces Tariff Drag

Citi Research, however, offers a more sobering outlook on the broader global picture. In a report led by Chief Economist Nathan Sheets, Citi forecasts global growth slowing to below 2% in the second half of 2025, before rebounding to nearly 3% in the first half of 2026.

“President Trump continues to aggressively implement tariffs. We judge that the effective tariff rate is likely to remain above 15%, the highest level in decades,” Citi Research wrote. The report estimates that the cost of tariffs is being split among foreign exporters, U.S. firms, and U.S. consumers—but so far, “U.S. firms have borne the lion’s share, apparently absorbing 60% to 70% of the cost” (Citi Research, August 2025).

Citi’s analysis underscores that while consumers have absorbed tariff-related uncertainties relatively well so far, the restraining effects are beginning to emerge. Import volumes have receded from late-2024 highs, and Citi expects tariffs will “take a bite out of the real spending of households and firms through the second half of this year.”

Crosscurrents in the Data

Both reports highlight the uneven distribution of tariff impacts. Apollo’s sector-level data show weakening demand in durable goods—particularly in tariff-sensitive categories—while services spending continues to rise. Citi’s global lens reinforces that U.S. corporate margins have shouldered much of the tariff burden to date, though this may not be sustainable over time.

Taken together, the findings suggest that while U.S. consumer spending remains a pillar of economic resilience, the durability of this strength will be tested if firms begin to shift tariff costs onto households. With global growth projected to dip below 2% and tariffs expected to stay elevated, policymakers and businesses face a delicate balancing act heading into 2026.