Market analysis由于联准会主席鲍尔在 Jackson Hole 的演讲为 9 月降息敞开大门，美股开高走高。他指出政策仍具限制性，基准前景与风险平衡可能需调整，同时警告通膨压力仍偏向上行，尤其关税效应已逐渐显现。虽然劳动市场暂时维持平衡，但劳动力供需皆显著放缓，成为联准会后续关注焦点。市场反应迅速，9月降息机率上升。不过，川普持续施压扬言解雇联准会理事 Lisa Cook，仍使其独立性受质疑。午后股市横盘整理，最终美股主要指数全面走扬，罗素 2000 更是大涨超过 3.8%。个股方面，特斯拉(TSLA)大涨 6.2%，受惠于 Cybertruck 调涨售价。旅游相关股亦强劲，挪威邮轮(NCLH)与嘉年华邮轮(CCL)均涨约 7%。通讯服务类股走高，Alphabet(GOOGL)因与 Meta 签署逾 100 亿美元云端合作协议上涨 3%，苹果(AAPL)也传考虑采用 Google Gemini 支援新版 Siri。Zoom(ZM)财报超预期并上修全年展望，股价飙升 13%。对利率敏感如房地产类股同样受惠降息预期，Builders FirstSource(BLDR)、D.R. Horton(DHI)、Lennar(LEN)等建商股价齐扬；金融股中高盛(GS)涨 3.7%、美国运通(AXP)涨 3.6%、摩根士丹利(MS)与摩根大通(JPM)亦跟进走高。半导体族群也回温，辉达(NVDA)、博通(AVGO)涨约 2%。 

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general manager Daryl

Bauer hints that interest rate cuts in September are more likely, and Fed policy shifts to risk balance

US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting that although inflation risks still exist, the job market is already facing downside risks, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its September meeting. Market expectations are heating up rapidly, believing that the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September is 85%, and it may be lowered again before the end of the year. Bauer's attitude is relatively dovish, reflecting the increased room for policy shifts, but also stressed that he would make cautious judgments based on upcoming employment and inflation data.

• 联准会暗示转向
  鲍尔指出政策已处于限制区间，风险平衡可能需调整利率政策，市场解读为对降息的开放态度。

• 就业市场放缓成关键因子
  近三个月平均新增就业仅35,000人，尽管失业率维持在4.2%，但供需双降形成「不寻常的平衡」，令联准会关注潜在失业风险。

• 关注即将公布的数据
  9月5日美国就业报告与其后的CPI数据将对政策路径具决定性影响，鲍尔表示将以数据为依据再行判断。

• 关税与通膨仍为潜在风险
  鲍尔认为关税造成的通膨压力可能只是短期，但不排除带来更持久影响，需持续监控。

• 川普政治压力升高
  前总统川普批评鲍尔行动太慢，并要求联准会理事Lisa Cook辞职，引发市场对央行独立性与政策连贯性的关注。

stocks

Tesla significantly increases the price of Cybertruck's top-rated model, leaving sales and recall pressure unresolved

Tesla (TSLA) has raised the price of its most expensive Cybertruck model, the Cyberbeast, by $15,000 to $114,990 in the U.S., despite the model's sales performance since launch have fallen short of expectations and has suffered multiple recalls. The increase comes with a new "Luxe Package", including Supervised Full Self-Driving and free use of super charging stations, in an attempt to increase product appeal against competitors such as Ford and General Motors. However, Tesla still offers a $10,000 discount on some inventory vehicles, indicating that pressure on demand is still there.

• Cyberbeast售价再创高点
  特斯拉将Cybertruck顶级车型Cyberbeast售价提高至114,990美元，包含Luxe Package服务，价格远高于Elon Musk 2019年预告的约40,000美元起跳价格。

• 销售不如预期
  Cybertruck销量远低于特斯拉原订的年产能12.5万辆，至2025年潜在达25万辆，但截至今年初约4.6万辆遭召回，显示累积销售仍偏低。

• 频繁召回与品质争议
  自2023年底交车以来，Cybertruck多次发生品质问题，导致市场信心受损，需求逐渐下滑。

• 同业压力升高
  竞争对手如福特F-150 Lightning与雪佛兰Silverado EV提供较低入门价格，特斯拉面临价格竞争压力，并须藉豪华配备包维持产品吸引力。

• 库存折扣显示需求疲弱
  尽管推出新配备，特斯拉仍对部分Cybertruck提供高达10,000美元折扣，反映出产能与需求之间的不平衡状况。

Apple talks to introduce Google Gemini AI to upgrade Siri to make up for the backward disadvantages of generative AI

Apple (AAPL) is in preliminary talks with Google (GOOGL) to consider using its Gemini generative AI model to support a new version of Siri's voice assistant next year. The potential cooperation highlights Apple's lagging position in the AI field and may also mark a shift in its long-term self-research strategy. At present, Apple has not yet made a final decision on whether to adopt external technology, and is still evaluating the pros and cons between its self-developed model and external cooperation plans.

• 洽谈导入Gemini AI
  苹果已接触Google，商讨是否由其Gemini AI打造客制化语音模型，用于2026年全新Siri升级，具备语境理解与装置全语音控制功能。

• Siri升级进度延迟
  原定2025年春季推出的新Siri因工程挑战延后一年，功能仍落后于Alexa与Google Assistant，特别是在多步骤操作与第三方整合能力上。

• 考虑多家AI供应商
  除Google外，苹果先前也与Anthropic与OpenAI接洽，评估Claude与ChatGPT是否能成为Siri升级的AI基础。

• 苹果生成式AI布局落后
  相较Google与三星，苹果在手机端AI整合进展缓慢，市场对其AI策略透明度与技术深度持观望态度。

• 消息激励双方股价
  该报导一出，Alphabet股价上涨3.7%，苹果股价则上涨1.6%，市场解读此举为苹果强化AI产品力的重要步骤。

The U.S. government has invested US$8.9 billion in Intel, making it difficult to solve the dilemma of wafer foundry

U.S. President Trump announced that he would acquire an approximately 9.9% stake in Intel (INTC) for US$8.9 billion as part of an agreement to convert CHIPS Act funding into equity. Although this investment symbolizes support for the local chip industry, analysis points out that what Intel's wafer foundry business really lacks is major external customers and technological leadership. It is difficult for the government to inject capital to fundamentally change its competitive dilemma. The key to the future still lies in whether it can attract customers to adopt advanced processes.

• 政府转换资金为股权
  美国政府以每股20.47美元购入4.33亿股英特尔股份，较市价折让约17.5%，成为最大股东之一，但不拥有董事席次，仅在有限例外下与董事会同票。

• 代工业务仍缺客户支撑
  英特尔CEO谭力文表示，未来14A制程投资将取决于客户订单，若无法取得稳定客源，恐退出代工市场，显示即便有资金，缺乏实质需求仍将限制发展。

• 技术与竞争持续落后
  英特尔落后台积电 (2330.TW) 与辉达 (NVDA) 的制程与AI晶片竞争多年，目前18A制程良率仍不稳，无法承担初期亏损以吸引大客户。

• 政府干预企业治理引发疑虑
  分析指出，此举可能成为企业治理风险，虽无董事席次但握有大量股份，未来政府对公司决策影响力不容小觑。

• 英特尔财务压力沉重
  公司2024年亏损达188亿美元，连续六季亏损，现金流短缺背景下，需仰赖外部资金与政策支持维持产能扩张计划。