Market analysis延续前日对各国财政可持续性的担忧，美债殖利率在亚洲与欧洲时段小幅走高，压抑美股期货表现。开盘后，美国劳工部公布 JOLTs 职缺数降至 718.1 万人，远低于市场预期，职缺/失业比正式跌破 1，其中自愿离职率亦处于低档，意味著目前劳动市场转向供过于求，显示就业环境持续降温，这使得 9 月降息机率由 92.7% 升至 96.6%。尽管就业报告与高位股价压抑追价意愿，美股盘中一度回落，不过 FOMC 褐皮书显示大部分地区经济几乎停滞，降息预期持续升温下，主要指数尾盘回升，其中标普与那斯达克表现相对较强。类股方面，Alphabet(GOOGL)受惠反垄断裁决结果利好大涨超过 9%，通讯服务表现优异，Netflix(NFLX)与 Meta(META)亦小幅走高；资讯科技方面，苹果(AAPL)因 AI 语音助理新计划上涨 3.8%，博通(AVGO)于财报前夕上涨 1.4%，不过辉达(NVDA)及超微(AMD)走势相对平淡；非必需消费品部分，特斯拉(TSLA)反弹 1.4%，亚马逊(AMZN)微幅上涨 0.3%。反观能源因 OPEC+ 增产消息冲击而走弱；原物料及工业则受到就业数据及褐皮书影响，景气循环股承压。 

Quick view of financial report

Salesforce's financial forecast fell short of expectations, slow AI monetization caused stock price to plummet

Although Salesforce (CRM)'s second-quarter revenue and profit exceeded market expectations, its third-quarter financial forecast fell short of expectations, indicating that AI investment has not yet brought real growth. Coupled with the slowdown in overall industry spending, the stock price fell more than 5%. The company actively promotes the AI platform "Agentforce" and plans to expand its treasury stock holdings to a total of US$50 billion. It also plans to spend US$8 billion to acquire Informatica (INFA) to expand its data management and cloud capabilities. Although the long-term strategy is clear, investors still maintain reservations about the return on AI investment, and the stock price trend may continue to be under pressure in the short term.

• Second-quarter earnings exceeded market expectations
  调整后每股盈余达2.91美元，高于预估的2.78美元；营收为102.4亿美元，年增10%，优于预期的101.4亿美元。

• Third quarter financial forecast fell short of expectations
  公司预估第三季营收区间为102.4亿至102.9亿美元，低于市场预期中值；每股盈余预测为2.84至2.86美元，与市场估值相当。

• Limited progress in the development of AI platforms
  虽推出AI客服平台「Agentforce」，累计6,000笔付费交易，但AI尚未显著带动营收与利润成长，变现效率遭质疑。

• Expand capital allocation and mergers and acquisitions
  宣布加码200亿美元库藏股，总规模达500亿美元；计划以80亿美元收购Informatica (INFA)，拓展AI与资料管理能力。

• Stock price performance significantly lags behind peers
  年初至今CRM股价已下跌23%，为大型科技股中表现最差者之一，市场持续关注其成长动能与转型成效。

 

HPE's third-quarter revenue exceeded expectations, with strong growth in AI server and network businesses

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) performed well in the third quarter, benefiting from strong demand for AI servers and network equipment, with revenue reaching US$9.14 billion, far exceeding market expectations. HPE has integrated NVDA's latest GPU-to-AI server product line and strengthened its network business by completing the acquisition of Juniper, successfully riding the wave of demand for generative AI infrastructure. The company has simultaneously raised its full-year growth forecast, indicating that AI-driven infrastructure spending will become the main growth driver in the future.

• Third quarter revenue significantly exceeded market expectations
  HPE第三季营收达91.4亿美元，远高于市场预估的85.3亿美元，主因伺服器与网路设备需求强劲。

• Demand for AI servers is growing rapidly
  AI应用热潮推升HPE以辉达 (NVDA) GPU打造的AI伺服器销量，伺服器业务年增16%，达49亿美元。

• Internet business benefits from Juniper mergers and acquisitions surge
  完成对Juniper的140亿美元收购后，网路业务营收年增54%，达17亿美元，成为最快成长领域之一。

• The outlook for the whole year has been significantly revised
  HPE预期2025财年营收成长将达14%至16%，高于先前预估的7%至9%，反映AI基础设施需求持续升温。

• Reach a settlement with activist investors
  公司在7月将资深科技业主管Robert Calderoni纳入董事会，化解与持股超过15亿美元的Elliott Management的潜在对立。

 

C3 AI revenue drops by 20% year-on-year and changes CEO, frustrating market confidence in the prospects

C3AI (AI) announced revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 was only US$70.3 million, a sharp drop from the same period last year, and announced that Stephen Ehikian will take over as CEO, replacing founder Thomas Siebel, who resigned due to health reasons. The financial report failure and leadership changes caused market unrest, and stock prices plunged 14% after hours. Although the new CEO emphasized that he will continue to attack the corporate AI market, the company is currently in a period of organizational reorganization and operational transformation, and still faces the dual challenges of growth and trust in the short term.

• Revenue and losses deteriorated simultaneously
  第一季营收年减20%，由8,720万美元降至7,030万美元；净损扩大至每股亏损0.86美元，去年同期为亏损0.50美元。

• CEO handover attracts market attention
  创办人Thomas Siebel因罹患自体免疫疾病卸任，新任执行长Stephen Ehikian曾创立两间被Salesforce (CRM) 收购的科技公司。

• Share prices plummet due to financial forecasts and leadership turmoil
  宣布新CEO与撤回先前财测后，C3 AI股价盘后重跌14%，反映市场对未来成长与策略执行力的疑虑。

• Organizational reorganization affects performance
  公司上季已重组全球销售与服务部门，原CEO曾坦言该季度销售表现「完全无法接受」，重整导致业绩受干扰。

• Enterprise AI market potential is still receiving attention
  新任CEO表示C3 AI平台具备差异化优势，将持续深耕企业AI应用市场，盼逐步修复市场信任与营收动能。

 

Macy's earnings exceeded expectations and raised its full-year outlook, with shares rising 20%

Macy's (M) announced that its second-quarter financial performance exceeded market expectations, with revenue and profits exceeding the standard. It also announced a hike in its full-year financial forecast, prompting its stock price to surge 20% in a single day. The sales performance of key stores where the company emphasized renovating and strengthening manpower has improved significantly. Coupled with the continued growth of its Bloomingdale's and Bluemercure brands, the strategic transformation has shown initial results. Although facing the impact of tariffs, the company has incorporated cost pressures into its estimates and carefully adjusted prices, reflecting its operating flexibility and prudent inventory management capabilities.

• Revenue and both profits were better than expected
  第二季营收达48.1亿美元，高于预期的47.6亿美元；调整后每股盈余为0.41美元，远优于市场预期的0.18美元。

• Refurbishment of stores drives sales rebound
  重点优化的125家门市同比成长1.1%，显示人力补强与门市翻新策略有效提升顾客体验与营收表现。

• High-end brands continue to boost overall results
  Bloomingdale’s与Bluemercury的同店销售分别成长3.6%与1.2%，表现优于Macy’s主品牌，持续巩固集团多元化布局。

• Increase full-year revenue and earnings outlook
  公司预估全年调整后每股盈余介于1.70至2.05美元，营收上看214.5亿美元，高于上季下修后的预测。

• Tariff pressure is controllable and measures are in place
  关税仍为挑战之一，公司已将其纳入财测并评估针对性价格调整，以维持市场竞争力并保护利润率。

 

major news item closely

general manager Daryl

The number of jobs in the United States drops to post-epidemic lows, and the job market shows obvious signs of cooling

The number of job openings in the United States fell to 7.18 million in July, a rare low since the end of 2020, indicating that the job market is gradually slowing down. This figure was not only lower than market expectations of 7.4 million, but also set a record low since September 2024, and continued to reflect the company's conservative attitude towards employment amid economic uncertainty. Experts pointed out that this may be a turning point in the U.S. labor market, which will affect the Fed's policy direction and investors 'expectations for a soft landing in the economy.

• The number of job openings fell below expectations and hit a new low
  7月JOLTS报告显示职缺数为718万，远低于市场预期的740万，仅为疫情后第二次跌破720万水准。

• Labor market weakness signs intensify
  除职缺下降外，企业对扩编持续保持保守，经济学家形容当前就业市场「已冻结」，求职者面临更多挑战。

• Similar to the initial level of the epidemic
  除2024年9月短暂低点外，当前职缺水准为2020年疫情初期以来最低，与当时经济动荡背景类似。

• The market focuses on upcoming employment data
  本周四的初领失业救济金数据及周五的非农就业报告，将进一步揭示美国就业市场健康状况。

• Policies and market expectations will be affected
  若劳动市场持续降温，可能影响联准会是否延后降息时程，也将牵动市场对经济前景的评估。

 

Trump says if he loses the tariff case, he may revoke the multi-country trade agreement, and the market is worried that the trade situation will rise again.

U.S. President Trump warned that if the Supreme Court upholds the Court of Appeal's ruling that his tariff measures are illegal, the United States may "terminate" trade agreements reached with the European Union, Japan, South Korea, etc., claiming that the United States will "suffer significant losses" as a result. The remarks were seen as putting pressure on the Supreme Court in an attempt to reverse the outcome of the tariff lawsuit. Experts pointed out that most of these agreements are framework in nature and not formal treaties, but this move still raises trade uncertainty and may further impact global market sentiment and inflation risks.

• Trump warns of withdrawing multiple trade deals
  表示若关税案败诉，将考虑「解开」与欧盟、日本、南韩等达成的协议，强调这些协议与关税密切相关。

• Tariff litigation raises policy risks
  上周美国上诉法院裁定多项川普政府关税措施违法，白宫正寻求最高法院推翻裁决，可能影响中国、加拿大、墨西哥等国的关税安排。

• The speech was interpreted as putting pressure on the court
  川普强调撤销关税将导致「巨大经济灾难」，意图透过经济后果说服最高法院维持其政策。

• Experts say the nature of the agreement is informal treaty
  贸易律师指出这些协议多为可调整的框架协议，不具法律约束力，但撤销将破坏外交信任与市场预期。

• Congressional Democrats criticize confusing speech
  参议员Ron Wyden表示川普政府对协议合法性说法前后不一，只会加剧市场与盟友的困惑。

 

industry

The United States revokes VEU export privileges and restricts TSMC and South Korean factories from expanding chip production in China

The U.S. government announced that it will revoke the "Verified End User (VEU)" rapid customs clearance export privileges of foreign chip manufacturers such as TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix in China starting from December 31, 2025. This move represents that the United States further tightens its control over the export of semiconductor technology from China, restricts the expansion and technological upgrading of these companies in China, and highlights the heating up of the geopolitical science and technology war. Although the impact on TSMC operations is limited, the policy direction has exerted long-term pressure on the global layout of the supply chain.

• Remove fast-track export review privileges
  台积电证实，美国商务部将撤销其南京厂VEU资格，未来出口美系晶片制造设备须逐案申请许可。

• South Korean manufacturers are also limited
  三星与SK海力士在中国的记忆体工厂也失去VEU资格，美国强调不再允许技术升级或产能扩张。

• The United States intends to block China's semiconductor progress
  分析指出，此举展现美方欲限制中国累积半导体制造能力、技术与人才的长期战略目标。

• Limited substantial impact on TSMC
  台积电南京厂占总营收不到3%，属非核心产能；公司强调将持续与美方沟通，确保营运不中断。

• Policy transition and rising industrial uncertainty
  尽管美国近期放宽部分AI晶片出口限制，但同时收紧制造设备规范，显示记忆体与制造技术将成下一波管制重点。

 

stocks

Alphabet avoids the fate of splitting, winning antitrust case and its market value increases by US$230 billion

Alphabet (GOOGL) 在美国反垄断案中获得重大胜利，法院裁定无须拆分Chrome浏览器与Android系统，市场对此解读为正面结果，激励其股价单日飙涨逾9%，市值一日增加约2,340亿美元。此裁决解除重大监管不确定性，也让Google能维持其与Apple等公司的搜寻引擎合作模式，同时持续推动其AI业务发展。尽管法院要求其与竞争对手共享部分搜寻数据，但分析普遍认为对核心业务影响有限。

• Court refuses to split Alphabet's core assets
  法官裁定Google虽违反垄断法，但不必拆分Chrome或Android，改以限制专属合约并要求共享部分搜寻数据作为补救措施。
• Maintain search partnership with Apple
  Google仍可支付巨额费用让自家搜寻引擎在iPhone上预设，该合作为其关键营收来源之一，保留后续AI整合空间。
• The market interprets the ruling results highly positively
  Alphabet股价大涨9.14%，创下历史新高，单日市值增加约2,340亿美元；Apple (AAPL) 同步受惠，股价上涨3.8%。
• Analysts raise target prices and estimates
  Wedbush等机构看好Google搜寻业务长期竞争力，将目标价上调至245美元，认为监管风险已大幅减缓。
• AI business is expected to accelerate development
  裁决保留Android掌控权，有助推广Gemini AI至更多用户装置，为未来AI布局奠定用户基础。

 

Performance by stock category

图片来源：美股K线