[U.S. stocks before the market] Huida's earnings report is imminent, futures fall and interest rate cut expectations are sewed (2025.08.25)

Futures have fallen back and focus has converged, and the market has become more conservative ahead of interest rate signals and AI earnings reports. Tonight, Taiwanese stock investors will face a volatile pre-market atmosphere in the U.S. stock market. On Monday night in Taiwan time, the three major U.S. stock futures fell slightly, with technology equity leading the decline. Futures fell about 0.3%, and the S & P 500 and Dow Jones futures each fell about 0.2%. Last Friday, driven by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's message that policies could be redirected, U.S. stocks rallied strongly. Dow Jones wrote its first closing high this year. However, today's risk appetite has cooled significantly. The yield rate of the 10-year U.S. bond has risen, oil prices have continued to rise, and gold prices have fallen, indicating that funds are still weighing the timing of interest rate cuts and short-term upward pressure.

The interest rate turning signal has strengthened, and the Fed's focus has shifted from inflation to employment has continued. Bauer said at the Jackson Hole meeting that downside risks in the labor market have increased and policy orientation needs to be adjusted based on the balance of risks. After the message triggered the bullish market last Friday, today's rebound in bond yields and stock index retracement reflect the market's rapid transition from sentiment to rational digestion. Investors are waiting for this week's key inflation and large-scale technology earnings reports to provide more specific paths. The core case is the heating up of individual imported inflation variables, such as trade tariffs and geopolitical risks, which has cooled the market's imagination of the speed and magnitude of the RSP.

This week's calendar focuses on dual cores. Vidia and PCE set the wind direction at the end of the month. Vidia's financial report is scheduled to be released early Thursday morning, Taiwan time, and will provide the latest temperature on AI capital expenditure and cloud demand. Outside the individual stock level, the authoritative reading of inflation and consumption momentum in the U.S. July PCE Price Index was released at 8:30 p.m. Taiwan time on Friday, which will serve as a key material for the market to verify Bauer's "risk rebalancing" statement. In addition to data and financial reports, this week we will also pay attention to whether the follow-up conversations between Federal Reserve officials will continue the tone of Jackson Hole.

International stocks and commodities intertwined. Asian stocks generally rose, but U.S. stock futures pressed back. Regional risk appetite could not be fully transmitted to the U.S. market. The Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks is close to a nearly four-year high. European stocks also closed last Friday with the UK FTSE 100 high. However, the rebound in U.S. interest rates and the strong trend of the US dollar have curbed the momentum of risky assets. Crude oil futures continued to rise, reflecting the support of supply and demand and risk premiums. Gold futures fell, indicating that safe-haven positions were profit-taken in the short term, and the trend relied more on cash flow management before major events.

Semiconductor policy was fermented. Intel received a stake in the U.S. government to stimulate a pre-market gain. Intel(Intel, INTC) rose about 2% in pre-market trading, partially receding the larger gain in early trading. The company said that the U.S. government obtained approximately 10% equity through passive shareholding, and the funding portfolio came from funding and pending "Chip and Science Act" subsidies. The deal was rumored in the market last Friday, and Intel closed up about 5% when U.S. stocks strengthened simultaneously. U.S. President Trump posted a post on a social platform saying that the move would be good for both the United States and Intel, highlighting the U.S. policy determination to accelerate its local manufacturing and supply chain strategy. For the market, policy support combined with the progress of corporate transformation will continue to determine the pace of mature processes and advanced packaging investment.

Consumer products mergers and acquisitions go hand in hand with spin-off themes. Keurig Dr Pepper announced the acquisition of JDE Peet's. Keurig Dr Pepper(KDP) announced the acquisition of Dutch company JDE Peet's for approximately 15.7 billion euros in cash. After the transaction is completed, it is expected to be split into two U.S. listed companies, one focusing on the coffee business, and the other including its beverage brands such as Keurig, Snapple and 7UP. The company expects the transaction to be completed in the first half of 2026, with its pre-market share price falling more than 3%, and JDE Peet's share price rising more than 17% in Amsterdam. Investors interpret it as short-term leverage and integration costs suppressing stock prices, but long-term strategies focusing on business purification and capital efficiency are worth continuing to follow up.

Tariffs and the industrial chain have been rebalanced, and furniture import investigations have triggered pre-market divisions. Last weekend, U.S. President Trump said he would launch a "major tariff investigation" on furniture imports, hoping that the industry will return to North Carolina, South Carolina, Michigan and other states. The stock prices of furniture and home furnishing distributors that relied heavily on imports before the market were significantly under pressure, while their peers with a relatively high proportion of manufacturing in the United States were relatively strong. This policy trend has a potential impact on channel and brand gross profit margins, inventory turnover and pricing power. At the same time, it may create embedded pressure on inflationary categories. Investors need to pay attention to the formal survey results and Timeline in the future.

Crypto assets retreated from highs, related stocks weakened before the market, and cryptocurrencies weakened after the weekend. Ethereum fell about 4.5% from historical highs, and the price fell below US$4,600. Bitcoin fell about 1.5% to around US$111,000. Affected by this, Bitcoin buyers and large miners generally fell by about 3% to 4% before the market, and crypto brokerage and trading platform concept stocks were also weak. The simultaneous pullback of risky assets is reflected in the adjustment of positions before large events and the need for correction of technical overheating.

Technology stocks are being tested for value, and the AI chain is waiting for a new round of empirical evidence. Huida's financial report early Thursday morning is regarded as a key test point to examine the return on investment in AI servers and the pace of supply chain expansion. Last quarter, the market focused on the revenue structure of the data center, supply commitments to customers and the pace of new products will affect the overall evaluation assumptions of technology stocks, especially the willingness of marginal buying to bear on high-price-to-profit ratio stocks. Against the background of a slight rebound in interest rates, the market style is neutral in the short term, waiting for data and financial reports to provide basis for additional increases.

Yields and commodity trends indicate the orientation of funds. The combination of strong oil and weak gold and a slight increase in debt yields shows marginal pressure on risky assets. The 10-year U.S. bond yield rose pre-market, which is unfavorable for growth stock valuations. However, the narrative of interest rate cuts last Friday remains, making today's pullback more like a pre-event stress test. The impact of continued rising energy prices on aviation, transportation and chemical costs needs to be paid attention to, and may also bring short-term noise to the energy segment of PCE prices.

Futures and pre-market trading were moderate, with indicator stocks becoming the focus. In addition to the consolidation themes of Intel and consumer beverages, the pre-market fluctuations of the two major themes of furniture and encryption were more significant, but the overall trading volume could be biased towards the wait-and-see. Dow Jones hit a high last Friday, driven by finance and industry. The S & P 500 was just a few points away from its all-time high. Nasdaq rose nearly 2%. Today's futures fall is within the scope of sentiment correction. Before the U.S. stock market opened at 9:30 pm in Taiwan time, investors continued to focus on the trend of U.S. bond yields and immediate guidance from companies.

Risk factors are compounded and intertwined. During event-intensive periods, information vacuum and volatility management are emphasized. Before and after large-scale policies and financial reports, common market price spreads widening and sector rotation will increase short-term volatility. It can be seen from the rebound in bond yields, differences in oil and gold and encryption retractions that fund management is tending to shorten duration and reduce leverage, waiting for Huida's financial report and PCE to provide the final anchor for the August market. Overall, the key before today's market is rhythm and position rather than trend reversal. The latest information on the two axes of AI and interest rates will determine the risk orientation and sector performance at the end of the month.