[Pre-market U.S. Stocks] AI weights continue to support the market, weakening employment and tariff uncertainty intertwined (2025.09.09)

Conclusion first, strong AI and expectations of interest rate cuts support risk appetite,

On Tuesday morning, Taiwan time, the Nasdaq Composite Index hit another record high, coupled with the simultaneous closing of the S & P 500 and Dow Jones. The core of pre-market sentiment was a tug of war between two forces: one end was interest rate cuts brought by the weakening employment signal in August., and the other end was rising uncertainty in tariffs and global trade. Science and technology empowerment and AI-related topics continue to lead the way. The market prefers risky assets, but still remains on the sidelines of the overall prosperity and policy path.

Employment is slowing, expectations of interest rate cuts are supported,

August employment data was weaker than expected, and the actual number of non-agricultural jobs in the United States was revised downward in June, making the labor market cooling more obvious. For the stock market, the slowdown in demand will eventually be reflected in revenue and profits, which should be unfavorable; but in the context of easing inflationary pressure, the market interprets it as expanding monetary policy space, increasing the probability of moving towards easing, and technology and long-term assets are favored.

Technology led the gains, with Huida and Broadcom becoming indicators,

This round of upswing is dominated by the AI chain, with Nvidia(NVDA) and Broadcom(AVGO) taking the lead in boosting risk appetite. Investors are not only concerned about revenue in the current quarter, but also the support of AI proliferation for medium-and long-term gross margins and capital expenditure cycles. Looking at the disk structure, funds are biased towards large-scale weights and cloud, semiconductor design and key component suppliers, and the pattern of strong ones remains strong continues.

Productivity narrative, AI brings two aspects of cost efficiency,

Enterprises continue to use AI introduction to improve efficiency and control labor costs. Salesforce(CRM) recently revealed that about 4,000 people have been laid off due to AI restructuring. Swedish financial technology company Klarna also said that after the introduction of AI, its workforce has been reduced by about 40% compared with the same period of the previous year. The capital market regards this as a medium-term benefit for the improvement of profit margins, but pressure on employment exacerbates the contradictions in the economy and also makes the market cautious about the final demand of enterprises.

Futures index is concerned, and the opening sentiment depends on changes in volume and price.

The trends and trading volumes of the three major index futures before the opening of U.S. stocks are today's emotional trends. Traders are concerned about whether the technology-led rally pattern can continue into the intraday session, whether financial and cyclical stocks will make up for gains, or whether the defense and high-dividend sectors will show relative strength. These changes will affect the fine-tuning of funds between industries.

In the international trend, Japanese stocks peaked and retail sales of European stocks led the gains.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index once crossed 44,000 points in early trading and then retreated, reflecting intensified high shocks; Europe's Stoxx 600 index rose 0.52% on the previous day, led by retail stocks, indicating that domestic demand and consumer-related groups continue to buy. In terms of the automobile industry, European car manufacturers are facing increasing pressure on prices and product rhythm of China brands;XPeng(XPEV) plans its Mona brand to enter Europe next year. The price in the China market will start from RMB 119,000, making the competition for low-and low-priced electric vehicles in Europe becoming more intense.

Trade is uncertain, tariff legitimacy and potential tax rebates are the focus,

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned that if the current tariffs are ultimately found illegal, the cumulative tax refund amount may exceed US$1 trillion by June 2026. For retail, manufacturing and import-oriented companies, there is room for revaluation of cost and selling price assumptions, which also affects federal fiscal revenue and expenditure planning. Under the framework of trade negotiations, Boeing(Boeing, BA) has long played a symbolic role in large orders. Recently, the model of simultaneously announcing the purchase of Boeing passenger aircraft when countries reached an agreement with the United States has resurfaced, and the aerospace defense supply chain has attracted attention.

In multilateral relations, the BRICS dialogue highlights headwinds and rebalancing,

Indian Foreign Minister Sujarsen called on BRICS partners to face up to the trade deficit issue. At the same time, China President Xi Jinping proposed strengthening cooperation in the face of U.S. tariff pressure. The signal shows that supply chain rebalancing is still underway, and if tariffs and geopolitical risks heat up, fluctuations in raw materials, industrial products and export-oriented enterprises are likely to increase. Investors pay attention to the marginal impact of relevant policy statements on risk appetite and capital flows.

AI funding is booming, and Esmore is investing heavily in European new ventures.

French AI startup Mistral AI has a valuation of 11.7 billion euros after its latest round of fundraising, with ASML leading the investment of 1.3 billion euros. Although Mistral AI is not a listed company, this move shows that upstream equipment and advanced process supply chains are still confident in the downstream AI model and computing power needs. The investment cycle from chips, memories to process equipment continues, and the strategic role of the European technology industry chain is further consolidated.

From the perspective of brokerages, individual stocks on financial exchanges are bullish,

Morgan Stanley launched a study on a financial exchange that IPO last year, giving it a better rating than the market and looking at nearly 70% upside. Although the sector effect is not triggered by name, most of these targets have pricing power and high cash flow characteristics, and the market often focuses on their trading volume and new product lines. If risk appetite spreads to financial infrastructure stocks, the market rotation is expected to be more balanced.

With the pulse of the industry, automobile retail, aerospace and technology form a four-line theme.

The automobile industry is concerned about price wars and tariff policies under competition from Europe and China. The retail community benefits from consumption elasticity and the imagination that costs are expected to be revised. Aerospace is influenced by the subject matter of trade negotiation orders. Technology and AI are still the strongest main lines. The cloud and semiconductor chain continues to attract funds. Pre-market news shows that these four themes are parallel, and active and passive funds may switch between them in the short term based on macro and policy news.

Comprehensive risk analysis, the gap between policy signals and data still dominates fluctuations,

Although weakening employment is beneficial to the direction of interest rates, the slowdown in economic momentum has put pressure on corporate fundamentals that cannot be ignored; disputes over tariff legitimacy and trends in BRICS relations have increased external variables; and high shocks in Asian and European stock markets remind that the valuation level is not low. To sum up, the pre-market tone is biased towards being supported by AI and technology equity. The market is concerned about whether funds continue to focus on growth themes after the opening of U.S. stocks, and at the same time pay attention to the impact of policy and geographical uncertainty on the market structure.