Interest rate cuts bet to support the market waiting for inflation data to set the tone

The intraday bullish trend of U.S. stocks continued. Investors were betting that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates this month and would use the upcoming PPI and CPI as key verification. The S & P 500 rose slightly, with Nasdaq leading the gains. Dow Jones fluctuated around the flat market. The main theme of the market is still assessing the interest rate cut to fall between 1 or 2 yards. CME FedWatch shows that the probability of interest rate cuts this month has been priced to 100%, and Standard Chartered has raised its forecast to a one-time interest rate cut by 2 yards, indicating that easing expectations continue to rise.

The four major indexes are leading high-tech and semiconductors

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was temporarily trading at 45,413.4, up 0.03%; the S & P 500 Index was temporarily trading at 6,495.07, up 0.21%; the Nasdaq Composite Index was temporarily trading at 21,815.37, up 0.53%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was temporarily trading at 5,795.16, up 0.59%. The performance of large technology stocks was divided, with Nvidia(NVDA) up 1.72%, Amazon(AMZN) up 1.64%, Meta Platforms(META) up 1.01%, Microsoft(MSFT) up 0.66%, relatively stronger than the broader market;Tesla(Tesla, TSLA) down 0.95%, Apple(Apple, AAPL) down 0.78%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) down slightly 0.04%. The semiconductor index continues to bounce back and show that AI and efficient computing needs are still the main axis of funding.

Changes in index components turn into highlights on the disk

The news that S&P Dow Jones Index will include Robinhood Markets(HOOD) and AppLovin(APP) into the S & P 500 within the month spurred both stocks to surge. AppLovin's intraday gain expanded to 10.23%, driving the mood for software and digital ad-related targets to recover. Component adjustments usually trigger the early deployment of passive funds, and trading activity increases simultaneously.

Wireless communications are shaken by big deals

EchoStar(SATS) surged sharply due to the sale of some spectrum rights to SpaceX for a transaction value of approximately US$17 billion, driving the trend of wireless and tower stocks. The news put pressure on Verizon Communications(VZ), T-Mobile US(TMUS), SBA Communications(SBAC) and Crown Castle(CCI) as the market evaluates the medium-term impact of spectrum and satellite resource restructuring on industrial competition.

AI supply chain news warms up driving chip equipment stocks

ASML Holding(ASML) U.S. stocks rose about 1.5% intraday. The news that the company has become the largest shareholder of Mistral AI, compounded by its oligopoly in high-end exposure equipment, continues to benefit from the demand link for AI GPU expansion. The sentiment in the supply chain related to Huida-related was boosted simultaneously, and the semiconductor community remained strong.

Electric vehicle battery technology demonstration stimulation theme stocks

QuantumScape(QS) rose by more than 22% in intraday trading. The company and PowerCo, a Volkswagen automotive battery subsidiary, conducted a live display of a Ducati electric locomotive powered by a solid lithium metal battery, symbolizing a technological milestone. The market is concerned about the subsequent commercialization schedule and the scale of car factory introduction, and the buying trend of related solid-state battery concept stocks is heating up.

Games and energy transformation stocks performed well

Take-Two Interactive Software(Take-Two, TTWO) rose 3.84% intraday, focusing on new pipelines and licensing momentum;GE Vernova (GEV) rose 3.77%, as expectations of energy transformation and improved visibility of equipment orders supported the stock price. On the market, stocks with clear growth themes and cash flow quality are more likely to be favored by buying.

Weakening consumption and chemicals dragged down some defensive stocks

Brown-Forman(Parkman, BF.B) fell 4.5% intraday as the market paid more attention to the resilience of demand for high-end spirits and inventory adjustments;Celanese(Celanese, CE) fell 4.99%, as the chemical boom cycle and pressure on price spreads tended to wait and see. In contrast, Canada Goose Holdings(GOOS) was encouraged higher by TD Cowen's upgrade, and the brand's year-round commodity strategy was seen as the key to improving seasonal fluctuations.

Clinical data on biotechnology ethnic differentiation affects stock prices

Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) announced a phase III lung cancer trial that showed that the efficacy of European and American patients was not as good as that of China, and its stock price fell. Uncertainty at key clinical nodes has made the performance of biotech stocks highly differentiated, with funds biased towards products that have been commercialized or have milestone catalysts.

Employment cooling signal deepens confidence in interest rate cuts

The latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that Americans 'confidence in finding a new job one year after losing their jobs fell to 44.9%, the lowest since the survey was launched; the proportion of people expecting a higher unemployment rate a year later rose to 39.1%. Previously, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that only 22,000 new jobs were created in August, and less than 30,000 in the past three months. The labor market has cooled significantly. Therefore, the market is more concerned about whether the upcoming PPI and CPI are consistent with the logic of interest rate cuts, and at the same time pay attention to the Labor Statistics Bureau's revisions to previous data.

The strengthening bond market and the upward trend of commodities reflect stable risk sentiment

The 10-year U.S. bond yield fell, supporting valuations in the same direction as the stock market; oil prices and gold prices futures rose simultaneously, indicating that inflation and safe-haven demand remained resilient. The US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen and weakened against the euro and the British pound. Most cryptocurrencies rose, and the overall asset price portfolio showed a moderate rebound in risk appetite.

Tariff and regulatory variables are sources of subsequent fluctuations

In terms of trade policy, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that if the Supreme Court does not uphold multiple Trump-era tariffs, the government may have to refund the relevant fees; previously, the Court of Appeal has ruled that most tariff arrangements are illegal. Policy uncertainty has caused some foreign trade and manufacturing chain stocks to react cautiously, and investors will continue to assess the impact on import and export costs and corporate profit margins in the future.

The earnings period comes to an end, cloud and consumption remain the focus

As earnings week draws to a close, Oracle(Oracle, ORCL), Adobe(Adobe, ADBE) and Kroger(Kroger, KR) will become the focus of follow-up observation. The pace of cloud and generative AI spending, mobile marketing and advertising budget allocation, as well as inventory and price strategies in U.S. supermarket channels, may all affect the evaluation of relevant groups and the flow of funds.

Key observations on the market focus on inflation data and interest rate cuts

Overall, technology and semiconductors maintain their lead, and the index is more than betting on interest rate cuts. However, the market will use PPI and CPI as the final verification to confirm the extent and path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts this month. Short-term attention to the industry spillover impact of wireless communication spectrum trading, passive buying caused by component stock adjustments, and the sensitivity of U.S. bond yield rate trends to high-price-to-earnings assets will be the three main lines of intraday fluctuations.