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CITIC Construction Investment: U.S. bond yields are unlikely to rebound

According to online reports, the CITIC Construction Investment Research Report pointed out that after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the 10-year U.S. bond yield rebounded to 4.2%. The research report believes that the risk of U.S. debt is significantly lower than last year, and short-term yields may rebound, but the central bank will still fall back to 4% or even lower at the end of the year, and can wait for the opportunity to intervene. Both the sharp drop in U.S. debt in Q4 last year and Q2 this year were caused by the Trump impact, but the transmission path was different: after last year's interest rate cut, expectations of interest rate cuts were suppressed mainly; after this year's tariffs, the term premium was reassessed mainly. At present, trade easing, interest rate cuts have restarted, credit decline and easing suspension are all small risks. The overall environment for U.S. debt is better than before, and it is not optimistic that the yield center will rebound significantly.

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